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한줄 결론: 이 영상은 대형 펀드매니저 포트폴리오(Terry Smith, Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman)의 2023년 분기 변동을 소개하며, 구체적인 가격 전망보다는 우량주 장기투자 관점과 보유 사례를 설명한다. [포트폴리오 개요] 영상은 미국에서 1억 달러 이상 운용사는 분기마다 보유 내역을 공개해야 한다는 점을 소개하고, 데이터로마(Dataroma) 사이트를 주요 자료원으로 활용한다고 밝힌다. Terry Smith: 고품질 기업(ROIC 기준)을 할인가에 사서 오래 보유하는 전략, 평균 보유기간 17년, 최근 10년 연 수익률 16%로 S&P500 대비 우위라고 설명. Adobe 전량 매도(인수합병에 불만), Procter & Gamble·Apple·Meta 등 매수, Microsoft 최대 비중. Michael Burry: 2008~2009년 미국 주택시장 공매도로 약 1억 달러 수익을 낸 사례 언급. 최근 분기 Black Knight 대량 매도(포트폴리오 약 20%였던 종목), GEO Group 매도, 중국 Alibaba 등 매수. 평균 보유기간 약 1년으로 트레이더 성향이며 시스템적 접근은 아니라고 평가, 포트폴리오 복사는 비추천. Warren Buffett: Chevron 대량 매도, 대형은행(US Bancorp·Wells Fargo·Goldman Sachs·JP Morgan·PNC) 매도 및 은행 업황 우려 언급, 대만 TSMC 전량 매도(대만-중국 긴장으로 인한 리스크 회피 해석). Apple 비중 확대(공개 포트폴리오의 약 50%), Bank of America 추가 매수. 진행자는 Cathie Wood의 Apple 비판에 반론을 제기. Bill Ackman: Chipotle 일부 매도(주가 2000달러 근처 도달 시 6~7배 수익 언급), Google 약 10% 비중 매수. 진행자 본인은 Google·Microsoft·Apple을 매수했고 올해 포트폴리오 25% 상승이라고 언급. [리스크·조건] 진행자는 고수익보다 큰 손실 회피가 중요하며, 90% 손실 종목은 회복이 어렵다고 강조. 지속가능한 전략이 중요하다는 입장. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 Apple·Meta·Google·Microsoft 등 대형 우량 기술주에 긍정적 입장을 보이나, 구체적 목표가나 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시하지 않음. 과거 매수 시점 및 현재가 언급(Google 100달러 미만 매수, 현재 약 120달러 언급)은 과거 설명으로 예측에 해당하지 않음.
다듬은 글
in America there is a law that states that if you have more than 100 million dollars under management you must let the world know every three months what you have been doing with that money what you have been buying what you have been selling and how you have been handling that money from investors in this video we will take a look at all these billionaires and delve into the portfolios of the world's best super investors and asset managers we will see what they have been buying and selling because some of them have made really huge changes in their portfolios in their assets you know the saying there are a thousand reasons to sell stocks but only one reason to buy them and that is to make a profit and believe me this video is absolutely packed with billionaires asset managers investors and I honestly love making this type of content because I believe that you can always extract some information about these super investors and become better investors yourselves hello we are invest guide and welcome to another investment video for this video we will mainly be drawing information from the data Roma website which I highly recommend to you as it provides nicely organized portfolios of these super investor billionaires showing what changes occur quarter after quarter what they are buying and selling another website I can recommend is rowic.ai which is a great tool for people who love numbers percentages and everything you need for good business analysis let's start with the first portfolio manager whom you probably don't know but you should he manages 23 billion dollars and is one of the largest portfolio managers in the world his name is Terry Smith we have a portfolio we're very very good companies but I can't tell you what will happen next in many of the share prices and you know it was a great moment said if you think you can give me a call Terry is one of my favorite investors his investment strategy is quite simple he mainly invests in high quality companies also known as Blue Chip stocks and select stocks primarily based on a metric called roic which stands for return on invested capital it is essentially the percentage by which a company can create value for shareholders so how does a company generate Returns on the capital invested by investors well some companies can generate two dollars from every dollar you give them while Others May generate only one dollar and 20 cents from that same dollar when you invest for a few years this difference can be significant take a look at Apple's roic for example and see how cleverly they allocate shareholders capital and make more and more money from it they truly improve their performance every year Smith's approach is to Simply find quality businesses buy them at a discount and then do nothing many investors know that this is the hardest part the average holding period for his stocks is 17 years and the average return of his fund over the last 10 years is 16 percent so this investor is indeed outperforming the S P 500 Index by a significant margin when we look at what he sold the largest sale was Adobe which accounted for over three percent of his portfolio he explained that he was not happy with adobe's Acquisitions so he sold his entire position when we examine his entire portfolio he mostly bought Proctor and Gamble a well-known company in the consumer goods industry but he also made purchases like Apple and where many people will tell you hey Apple has already passed its prime after all everyone in the world has an iPhone maybe that's true but apple is no longer just a company that sells smartphones it's a company that has a thousand ways to monetize all the people within its ecosystem yeah at least that's what we're seeing now for example Apple introduced a savings account for its users and so on there will be plenty of things like that in the future personally I'm glad that Terry also bought Apple because I bought it throughout the whole previous year and at the beginning of this year too because I believe Apple will continue to rise furthermore Terry also bought a bit of meta and I also bought it throughout the previous year since the beginning of the year meta has increased by several tens of percent and of course my portfolio greatly benefits from it this year I bought it throughout the previous year and currently meta is one of my largest positions I bought it when everyone said hey we don't believe in Zuckerberg anymore he might quit I said hey no Zuck always turns things around and guess what he really turned it around and the stock price is back where it was before we'll see how it goes from here in general when you look at Smith's entire portfolio you see major high quality businesses with Microsoft leading the way in which he has the largest share of the portfolio these companies have a significant competitive advantage in the market I definitely recommend keeping an eye on his portfolio for the future the next Super investor in this video is Michael burry whom I probably don't need to introduce yeah that's the guy who made around 100 million dollars by shorting or betting against the American housing market in 2008 and 2009 seeing the economy on the verge of collapse I did the logical thing I sought to profit from it Brewery sold quite a lot in the last quarter including many of his large positions for example he sold a significant portion of Black Knight a software company that accounted for almost 20 percent of his portfolio but it can also be seen that he may have lost faith in prisons because he sold a large portion of geogroup which operates a significant number of prisons in America now when we look at his purchases there were quite a few as well he bought a considerable amount of Chinese Alibaba and many other companies Brewery is well known for seeking out lesser-known and very small companies that he believes are significantly undervalued and sees value in them it's a completely different style from mine I'm not trying to find the next Amazon or a penny stock that will appreciate by 500 percent in two years by focus on larger profitable companies with positive cash flow and buy them at good prices when we look at how he divides his portfolio you can see that he is more of a Trader than an investor on average he holds his stock positions for about a year which isn't very long it's highly likely that some of the positions he bought and sold today are no longer held by him personally I don't see much systematic approach to it as we saw with Smith so I don't highly recommend copying his portfolio because I don't think you can take much from it you can see that the largest part of his portfolio now consists of Chinese companies so he probably expects growth in the Chinese market and there's also a company that sells jewelry mainly diamonds do you see the significant concentration in those top three companies now let's talk about the well-known Warren Buffett and you'll say invest guide I already know everything about Buffett please don't talk about him well when it comes to Buffett we can always talk about him in a positive light and there's always something to learn from him let's get into it with Buffett it was also interesting because he sold the most shares of Chevron a huge oil producer in America as we mentioned before Buffett has been selling Banks because he no longer has faith in them one of the banks that you've sold include USB Wells Fargo Goldman Sachs JP Morgan PNC should we think that they're banks that aren't run well run because you've sold them or no okay no but I did think that banking could get in a lot of trouble just because of the kind of things that I didn't like the banking business as well as I did before and he actually sold his entire position in the Taiwanese chip manufacturer as you can see Buffett is really focused on risk reduction because as you probably know there are disputes between Taiwan and China there is a possibility that China might attack Taiwan and of course strategic targets like ship manufacturers are likely to be the first to be targeted Buffett doesn't want to risk it he sells and it's evident that Buffett can quickly change his judgment and there's nothing wrong with that he probably evaluated that his thesis for buying that company no longer holds true today so he sells even though he recently bought that chip manufacturer today he's selling that's Buffett for you holding positions for decades which is quite unusual we only see small sales just a fraction of a percent and that doesn't seem like something Buffett would do it's probably just someone learning the ropes they gave me some small cash to play with the portfolio usually Buffett makes those big purchases yeah buying Apple buying Bank of America selling Chevron yeah those deals involve tens of billions of dollars it's likely that his assistants handle those that's what Buffett has been selling and buying recently which interests us more and we see that Buffett increased his already massive position in apple that's extremely interesting because Apple now accounts for almost 50 percent of Buffett's public portfolio traded on the stock market just imagine having 150 billion dollars invested in one company he also increased his position in Bank of America so he probably believes in that big bank and doesn't trust the regional or smaller Banks so you could say that Buffett is consolidating his portfolio into his big bets on Apple and Bank of America by the way Kathy Wood recently criticized Apple calling it a stagnant company but when we look at the chart of apple and the chart of Kathy Woods ETF over the past five years I don't know what a stagnant company is or which stock generated the majority of returns for the ETF personally the longer I invest in study investing I notice one thing really good investors don't necessarily aim for miraculously High profits sure we're talking about 15 18 19 per year which is great but these investors focus more on not losing on avoiding devastating losses to their capital or the capital of investors who invest with them yeah they avoid having an 80 or 90 loss because you know that a 90 loss on a stock probably never recovers yeah that's the end and of course you can do really well in the short term with high risk you can make 50 or 70 percent in a year but try to consistently make 50 or 70 percent annually try to maintain that for 10 years and that's the catch yeah you can do it for one or two years when things are going well but then you'll have years where you lose sixty percent and then seventy percent of that sixty percent yeah and then you might as well be done it's important to have a sustainable strategy that you can follow for another 10 15 or 20 years and generate Returns on your portfolio even if it's just 11 12 or 13 but when you do it consistently yeah every year for 10 to 15 years you'll reach your goal in general when we look at Buffett's portfolio most of the companies have a significant competitive Advantage they are profitable pay dividends or buy back shares from the market thus returning value to shareholders those are the companies Buffett focuses on another portfolio manager I trust and from whom we can learn a lot is Bill Ackman and his investment strategy is quite clear we look for very high quality businesses what we describe is simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant businesses a business that Warren Buffett would describe as having a mode around if you believe that the value of anything Financial is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life but you need to know how much cash is going to generate over its life so it's a business quality to us is the single most important Criterion for determining what's interesting Bill sold a large portion of his position in Chipotle the Mexican restaurant chain his purchase of Chipotle was extremely legendary he bought it when it was around three hundred dollars per share Chipotle had a high PE ratio and on television they were saying Bill you've gone crazy this stock is extremely overpriced but Bill said well it may seem that way but this stock this company has an extremely bright future and of course he was right now bill is selling as Chipotle's stock price reaches two thousand dollars so he may earn six to seven times his initial investment what surprised me though is his purchase of Google which now makes up ten percent of his portfolio here you can see that you don't always have to buy small caps like Michael burry does you can simply buy Google last year I also bought big tech stocks and everyone was saying hey invest guide you're only focusing on those large companies you're just trying to gain views but I said I don't need to buy small caps that could go bankrupt Google is undervalued and I believe in it apple is at a good price so why should I look for a company that could fail sure it's fine to have a small portion of the portfolio like three or four percent in Risky companies but I won't put twenty percent of my portfolio into some small cap company yes I'll buy Here companies that are well known profitable and currently undervalued so I bought Google I bought Microsoft I simply bought apple and now my portfolio is up 25 this year because these companies were well known profitable and undervalued I don't need to look elsewhere but you see Bill Ackman who manages hundreds of millions of dollars basically did the same thing by buying Google for 10 of his portfolio it's not important to look like a genius what's important is that you generate profits that's why we invest you don't need to buy things that nobody knows about and everyone will say oh you found another Amazon that's not important what's important is to make profits from those stocks and you can actually see that here where I made one of my purchases of Google when it was below one hundred dollars per share today you can buy Google for around 120 dollars in just a few months and that's just one of the few purchases of Google that I made in fact I talked about it on patreon saying that Google below one hundred dollars is actually a really good deal it's a good purchase and I still believe that even at 120 it's still a fair purchase so if you want to learn more about investing company analysis how to analyze companies investment news and stay up to date I'll be looking forward to seeing you in our investor community on patreon the link is in the video description take care
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