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well first of all if we're talking about you know the nasdaq right or even the s p 500 there's no way to know i mean i i can't tell whether this is the next bear market or a correction but if it wasn't for the fed it would be a lot easier because the market would just collapse and it would be pretty obvious in fact if it wasn't for the fed it already would have happened so the fed is in there distorting the markets and so the question is will the fed be able to prevent this correction from becoming a bear market and will they be able to push the market back up to new highs but but that's all the market has going for it's no there's no fundamentals uh the companies are already way over valued uh it's just the monetary policy but this monetary policy isn't costless to us it's not like there's no negatives of diverting all these resources away from the real economy to prop up a bubble in the financial market i mean it's actually ironic because a lot of people look at wall street and they see you know when the dow was making new highs and nasdaq was over 12 000 and somehow this is indicative that hey we're going to get this v-shaped recovery the stock market is telling us that the economy is stronger than we think it was actually the reverse it was the weakness in the real economy that was propping up the stock market you know what's bad for main street is what's good for wall street what's what was driving the rally was the economy was so bad that it was causing the fed to print even more money to offset it and since the only really game that has is the wealth effect the only place its monetary policy is effective is in inflating acid bubbles not generating real economic growth that's what it's concentrating on so it's putting all of its firepower into maintaining the phony wealth of inflated asset prices pretending that this policy is meant to stimulate the economy but the only way they're trying to stimulate the economy is through this phony wealth effect they hope that if people feel wealthier because their stock prices are higher that they'll go out and borrow and spend more money but of course convincing people who are already over leveraged and broke to go deeper into bed to buy more stuff that they can't afford that is not a recipe for economic success right it's a recipe for disaster well obviously americans are the most exposed to the dollar bubble not the stock market bubble because not all americans own stocks but all americans own dollars i mean some dollars yeah and if they don't own them they're getting paid dollars you know in their job so the dollar and the value the purchasing power of the dollar is very important to all americans and of course investors right they're looking at their stock portfolios and hey how many dollars is my portfolio worth right so everything is referenced back to the dollar and if the dollar collapses in value then what differences are made right how many you have or how high uh your your stock portfolio is you know on your statement if you can't buy very much with the dollars when you when you sell the stocks or you know you try to take your dividends and go and go buy things so that's a bigger concern the bond market also is tied in with the dollar bubble they're actually the same bubble because bonds are really just dollars they're ious for dollars for future delivery in the interim you get an interest rate so you get some more dollars while you're waiting for the bond to mature and then you get you know your principal dollar payment back so they're all tied up together and of course when the bond bubble pops that also is going to impact more americans than the stock market because of the impact it has on the debt debt markets because so many americans are living on credit you know whether it's a car loan an auto loan a student loan credit you know credit card debt mortgage whatever they got i mean most americans you know need to borrow money to survive that's how they're making ends meet and and so this is much bigger than than the the wealth effect from the stock market but but it's all going to take a toll on the economy as the air comes out of these bubbles it's just that in order to keep the stock market bubble and the real estate bubble and the bond bubble propped up the fed sacrifices the dollar so i think the dollar is gonna be the first one to pop and then the rest of them will come tumbling down uh probably bonds even before stocks um but but but stocks could be going down but i think bonds will only will pass stocks and go down more i think your safe haven is going to be gold uh you know gold is the mirror image of the dollar really as soon as the dollar goes down you know the gold price will go up so i think gold is also letting you know what's going on brent johnson's theory is that before the dollar crashes it's going to have a final rally like kind of like you know a drowning man coming up for air before he you know goes under for good and is it possible that that he's right yeah i mean anything's possible i'm not going to say it's impossible he's right but since we both agree that even if frank johnson is right and the dollar does have that rally it's going to collapse so it's still going to drown even if it comes up for another breath and so i don't want to bet on that rally if we both agree in the final analysis the dollar is toast then let's just invest for that outcome because that way it doesn't matter whether he's right or wrong right because we both agree where the dollar is going long run we just disagree where it's going short well i don't care about the short run i'm not you know trading options and i don't want to take the chance uh that that that the dollar doesn't rally see here's the problem for the guys that are following uh brett johnston and there's other people like harry dent you know i talked to him he's like oh yeah eventually it's always going to crash but before it does it's going to go way up okay what if it doesn't what if you don't get the big dollar rally what if the big dollar rally already happened and you just didn't realize that that was it and then the dollar just crashes and you're still waiting for the rally you're broke you've lost everything you're holding on to you know confetti right you know you but let's say those guys are right and you just follow my advice and you get out of the dollar now right and then the dollar rallies well so what who cares you know you've got gold you've got foreign assets or whatever the dollar goes up temporarily big deal then it crashes and you're fine because you don't have any dollars so if you follow my advice and brent johnson is right you're still okay you know you know would it be yeah would you be better off if you timed it perfectly and got this big dollar rally and then dunked dollars at the height yeah maybe sure you could be better off but what if that doesn't happen see if i'm right and brent johnson is wrong you're broke i don't like those those odds i don't like those scenarios there's if because if we're both right and you follow my advice there's no way you could work but if we're but if i'm right i mean rather if if we're both right on the wrong long run but brett johnson is right in the short run you don't go broke right but if you follow my advice but if i'm right and you follow ray johnson's advice and i'm right then you do go just just position yourself for the end game we just disagree on how we're going to get to the end but we all agree where we're going so if we know we're going to be if our portfolio is positioned to win in the end then we're going to win if you're trying to finesse this and trying to bet that you know exactly how the journey is going to play out and then you bent wrong you're not you're going to lose you know you know what the end game is you're going to be just as broke as the people who don't but meanwhile i think what we're about to see and i know fred johnson too he still thinks that the dollar that gold is going to go up in terms of other currencies even if it goes down in terms of the dollar and he thinks gold might even go up in dollars even as the dollar you know loses less value than the euro in the yen so i think that one way to follow both of our advice is just to buy goals because we pretty much both agree on goal we just disagree on the relative values of the various fiat currencies but i think that we're about to see the most spectacular goal rally that we've had since the 1970s and i think the profits that people will make who are invested in gold stocks now will be the type of profits that were made in the 1970s right what happened from 2001 to 2011 those were good years people made 10 times their money but i think they're gonna make much more this time because that rally was simply the end of the bear market right we had a big bear marketing goal that went from um 1980 to 2000 right that from the peak of the big bull market in the 70s we went and had a 20-year bear market and then we kind of came roaring back out of that bear market gold went from under 300 to a thousand pull back then went up to 1900 right then we pulled back uh almost a thousand we went through this 10-year like you know bottom base building but now we're ready for the type of bull market that we got in the 70s you
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