저자: GrantCardone/PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Cardone는 부동산 실물 자산과 비트코인 상승을 낙관하며, 금리 상승 시 기관급 부동산을 저가에 매수 중이라고 주장한다. Schiff는 고금리·고부채 시대 진입, 금리 상승 시 부동산 가격 하락과 negative equity 발생 가능성을 주장하고, 인플레이션 상승으로 금이 강세라고 본다. 두 사람 모두 AI 낙관을 언급하나 Schiff는 비용 청구서가 온다고 경고한다. 중간선거 후 공화당 패배 시 암호화폐에 불리하다는 전망도 나온다.
다듬은 글
비트코인과 공포 팔이 논쟁
You've been selling fear your whole life. Republicans will be smoked out now. That's why you look older than me. No offense. More years of Bitcoin and you'll start looking a lot grayer. Everyone knows you have DTS. No, no, no. I don't have Trump madness. These are people who blindly support Trump. They... They're the ones who are crazy.
You're a suicide bomber, dude. You are a suicide bomber. You're just selling greed, trying to get people to buy your Bitcoin. How many people do you know who get a discount on their Bitcoin purchases? Well, but they... But they'll still get it if they just buy real estate. Good. They could keep them separate.
But what you don't understand again is that I'm creating a hybrid. I'm creating a new product that will revolutionize real estate like you've never done it before. Revolutionize real estate? Everything that's happening now suggests... It suggests that Bitcoin is for what? This suggests that Bitcoin is for what?
It will grow significantly. That's true. This implies that. Yes, but yes, yes, but that's not true. That real estate will continue to do so. Yes, the only one. And this assumes that Bitcoin will do this. And you're going to assume that it won't do anything. But then again, brother, in early 2000 you said gold would be worth 2500, and how long would that take?
It will take 12 years for this to happen. Well, yes, you know, gold has been rolling sideways for a long time. Bitcoin is rolling sideways right now. Look older than me. No, no offense, but I don't know. I... I don't... I don't dye... I don't dye my hair. Good. But I can... You know, I can be older than you.
I'm not sure how old you are, Grant. Peter, every landlord needs money. A few more years, a few more years of Bitcoin, and you're going to start looking a lot grayer because, you know, especially after these midterm elections, and the Republicans are going to be crushed. It will be a very hostile environment for cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin on Capitol Hill.
And the main reason for such a large increase in Bitcoin was Trump. Hmm? What? Everyone knows you have DTS. No, no, no. There's no need to make Trump smart. These are people who blindly support Trump. They are the ones who have gone crazy. I am rational. I... I support him.
소비자심리 지수와 미국인의 불안
You know, we started earlier today, I don't know if you saw this, but the University of Michigan released its consumer confidence index, and the current conditions index is the lowest in the history of the survey, which goes back to 1951.
So, Americans are more concerned about their finances now than they were during the Korean War, the Vietnam War, you know, multiple recessions, the Great Recession, the financial crisis, the dot-com bust, you know, COVID. I mean everything that has happened in the last 70 years. People are more concerned now.
So, you know, this is a prediction that you're going to have this economic boom. You've been selling fear your whole life. I'm selling reality, man. You are cursed. Well, you're just selling greed, trying to get people to buy your bitcoins and real estate. Let me... I... I... I inspire people to create wealth for themselves by creating a new financial product, okay?
Okay, so you hope to make 50% profit on your bitcoins. I understand, but you know what? Bitcoin will fall, so you don't... Okay, gentlemen, let's talk about growth. I would like to know what you both think about what to do in the face of rising interest rates. Let's start with Grant. This directly affects real estate.
금리 상승이 부동산에 미치는 영향
How would you allocate your real estate portfolio differently, you know, under a 7% mortgage compared to a much lower rate a year ago or 2 years ago? Yes, well, it's a very, very difficult time for realtors right now. I can tell you right now that this is not what a guy like me wants. I mean, in the last three or four weeks, we've probably lost $80 million in real estate value.
Only for a very short period of time because of these rates. We have been very active in buying large, institutional-quality assets, and we will continue to do so, because when rates rise, prices fall. Our entrance is very cheap now, but it's very scary to buy now. It's very similar to how your cash flows are contracting, David, as you know.
Uh, but our value of these assets is based on buying institutional-quality assets in great locations. Our entry level, we think, uh, over the next 3-5 years, we'll look back and it'll be a great investment, even if the cash flow is reduced. Okay, Peter, uh, rising interest rates don't like... gold either. So are you doing anything differently?
금과 실질금리, 인플레이션
Well, first of all, I don't think we have higher real rates. I actually think inflation is rising faster than rates. Uh, and I think that will continue. I think both nominal rates will continue to rise, but not as much as inflation. So I actually think it's quite bullish for gold, even though investors have seen it as a headwind.
It's a real tailwind, but to comment on real estate, I'm not entirely sure, you know, about the composition of Grant's portfolios. Uh, but I think the stakes will go up a lot from here. Uh, this isn't the top yet, and it's going to create a lot of problems in the real estate market and in the economy in general, uh, especially in the U.S. economy, which was really built, uh, on real estate, because we've been in a bull market for 40 years in bonds, right?
40년 채권 강세장과 모기지의 선물
From 1981 to 2021, bond yields fell. 10-year Treasury bonds rose from 16% to 60 basis points. Huge bull market. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 18% to 2.5/8 by 2021. So what's happened over these 40 years is that falling mortgage rates have helped real estate prices rise, right? They... They work the other way around.
And what happened was that American homeowners had this gift that kept on giving, a lifeline, where every few years they would refinance their mortgage, take out cash and simultaneously lower their future payments. So that was great. They could pay off their credit card debt, they could renovate their house, they could do whatever they wanted.
They did, and they had a wealth effect because they continued to get richer as real estate prices continued to rise. Now we're in the opposite situation, where real estate prices are not really going up, and they could go down significantly. Uh, but mortgage rates will continue to rise.
집값 50% 하락 논쟁
Didn't you recently say they could drop 50% or something? Well, no. I said, if mortgage rates reach 9%, which I think we can reach by the first quarter of next year, uh, for a house to cost the same with a 9% mortgage as with a 3% mortgage, the price of the house would have to be halved to make the monthly payments the same.
But other things that are happening, insurance has gone up significantly, maintenance has gone up significantly, utilities have gone up significantly. Everything about home ownership is getting more expensive, but the lifeline has been broken. No more cash-out refinancing, no more refinancing, no more lowering your monthly payments, and we are entering a new reality in America that we have never been in.
저금리·고부채 시대의 종말
We started with low interest rates and low debt. It was wonderful. Then we had low interest rates, I mean low debt and high interest rates. It was manageable. Peter, do you understand what I'm talking about? I'm almost done. We had low debt and high interest rates. Then we went into a period of high debt and low interest rates, and it was... We could do it.
Yes, we had high debt, but it was cheap, so we could afford it. We have now entered an era of high debt and high interest rates. And, of course, this is higher debt than we have ever had. And who knows how high these interest rates will go, but they're going to go much higher than the fives and sixes, where, you know, we're at right now.
Okay, Greg, come on. How high, Peter? How high, Peter, before they can't go any higher? For there is a place where they cannot rise higher. Well, there's no place they can't go higher. But what happens is that there is a place where they rise so high that everything collapses. But that in itself doesn't lower the stakes.
연준 개입과 하이퍼인플레이션 가능성
There may be a tipping point where the Fed steps in and says, "You know what? We cannot allow the stakes to rise any higher." And then they start printing presses and start buying up all the debts. But then we get uncontrolled hyperinflation. So it's not, you know, so none of this matters.
And then, of course, the only debt that stops growing is the one that the government buys. So if the government, if the Fed, buys Treasury bonds, then mortgage rates will still go up. You know, they have to buy mortgage-backed securities. They should buy corporate debt. Uh-uh, they have to start, because what the Fed doesn't buy will continue to increase, because inflation will increase.
So, if inflation is 10% per year or 15% per year, I'm not going to borrow money for less. Yes, but then again, it's the end of the world. I didn't say the world was coming to an end. I just said that the stakes are getting much higher. I know, but it's always like that with you, dude. And the reality is that things are always getting better in this country.
낙관론과 부채 시계
Well, they may get better, but at first they will just get worse. Look, I'm optimistic about AI. I think there are many reasons for optimism, but we... we will have... There is a price to pay. The chickens are coming home to roost for all that cheap money. We live on a high, not enough money, but how long has this debt clock been threatening you for your life?
I... I... I could see this crisis a mile away. Not the beginning of time. I'm not that old. I'm not that old. From debts, since we have had debts all my life, debts are counted from about 10 years old. Yeah, well, every year it was like we had too much, sorry, we had too much. We can't afford this anymore.
The world is coming to an end. Good. I never said the world was coming to an end. Half the houses in America. $35 trillion of equity is in homes today. Look, the world is not ending. We had the financial crisis of 2008. The world is not over. Right? So bad things can happen without the end of the world.
2008년 차압 주택 투자 논쟁
There will be a debt crisis. If you had bought all the foreclosed homes in 2008, 9 and 10, you would be so rich today that you wouldn't have had to move to Puerto Rico. Well, I'm richer because I moved to Puerto Rico. But yeah, I know, but you shouldn't have to make that choice. You would say, "Oh, I just want to buy real estate." But I love living here.
8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 years ago, if you had bought real estate when it was falling sharply, you would have been so rich. But the difference was that I'm rich enough to just... Sorry. You don't know what you don't know, okay? So 50% of all loans in this country have an interest rate below 4%. And they have 27 years left on this term.
As for the losses... they won't be discounted, folks. So what are you going to do? Sorry. Sorry. Let me finish, please. You will see that there is no activity. You won't see housing prices fall, okay? You won't see a 50% drop in prices for any individual homes in this country. You will see small drops.
저금리 주택담보대출과 매물 감소
Sorry. Let me just finish. I'm going to finish. You will see small drops. You'll see small drops when people have to sell their homes because you need a secondary market to move, not a primary or first-time home buyer. And half of the houses have an interest rate below 4. So no one is going to trade that for six or seven.
Yes, and you are right. By the way, there are people in this country who don't move, people who don't move from being renters. Let me... let me finish what's going to happen. First, you are right. A lot of people have 20-30 years left on a fixed-rate mortgage where they're paying three or four percent.
This means that creditors suffer huge losses because they are stuck owning that asset. Banks, insurance companies... You have the problem of insolvency of all the people who own these terrible papers. And I warned about this a long time ago. But yeah, the fact that Americans have these low mortgages means they're going to stay in their homes longer.
But that's what's going to happen, right? The cost of everything else will increase. So people will see utilities go up, insurance, all the other costs of home ownership will go up. Now some people will move, some will die, some will get divorced, some will lose their jobs, and some will sell.
급매가 시장 가격을 바꾸는가
Now that several people are selling homes, and now they are starting to sell at lower prices, all homes are now worth those lower prices because their entire value is based on comparables. Now let me finish. Real estate doesn't work like that. Let me... That's how real estate works. No, that's not true.
One day, real estate prices fall and now I'm underwater on my mortgage. Let's say I owe $500,000 on a house worth $400,000. I currently have negative equity. Yes, I may have a low mortgage at 4%, but if I struggle to make that payment and I have other bills, then the 4% mortgage is underwater on their house.
This is funny. No, not now, but they could be very soon, because they... No, they can't. They can't be very fast. This is impossible. Mathematics. Okay. This is impossible. It's impossible to have... Grant, real estate prices were at their peak when mortgage rates were at their lowest, practically. If real estate prices fall, then people will have negative equity.
만약 금리가 올라도 집값이 떨어지지 않는다면, 지난 100년 동안 금리가 오르고 집값이 내린 적은 여섯 번밖에 없습니다. 그렇습니다. 제가 부동산으로 돈을 번 적이 한 번 있는데, 그건 공매도였습니다, 그랜트. 참고로 푸에르토리코에 있는 제 부동산은 제가 산 가격의 다섯 배 가치가 있긴 합니다.
하지만 제가 부동산으로 돈을 번 유일한 경우는 2006년에 서브프라임 모기지 시장에 공매도를 걸었을 때였습니다. 그때 같이 공매도를 하자고 설득하려 했던 사람들이 거래를 원하지 않았던 주된 이유는 "피터, 당신 미쳤군요. 부동산 가격은 절대 떨어지지 않아요. 그런 일은 일어나지 않아요"라고 했기 때문입니다. 그런데 제가 말한 그대로, 제가 말한 바로 그 이유들 때문에 정확히 그대로 일어났습니다.
그러니 부동산 가격은 떨어질 수 있고, 또 떨어질 겁니다. 떨어지면 사람들이 모기지를 갚지 못할 때 어떻게 하는지 우리는 알고 있습니다. 열쇠를 우편으로 보내죠. 같은 일이 다시 일어날 겁니다.
그랜트에게 1~2분만 주어서 자기 입장을 설명하게 합시다. 이 사람, 이 사람, 이봐요. 먼저, 지금 환경에서는 이런 일이 일어날 수 없습니다. 지금은 2006년이 아니라 2020년입니다. 오히려 더 나빠질 겁니다. 끝까지 말하게 두세요. 이 나라 주택의 절반은 4배도 안 되는 가격입니다. 모기지 잔액이 이 망할 집 가치보다 많아요, 이봐요.
도대체 무슨 문제예요? 맞습니다. 수년 동안 저는 사람들에게 빚을 내서 30년 만기 모기지를 받으라고 말해 왔습니다. 여러분의 가장 큰 자산은 모기지가 될 거라고요. 그랜트, 이 질문에 답해 주세요. 아니요, 100% 동의합니다. 그래서 제가 사람들에게 30년 고정금리 모기지를 받으라고 권한 겁니다. 은행이 실제로 모기지를 갚는 대가로 여러분에게 돈을 지급해 주니까요. 이건... 채권자의 의무입니다.
피터, 당신 나이가 되면 당신만큼 건강해 보였으면 좋겠네요. 네. 좋아요. 음, 우리가 지배한다는 거 아시죠. 우리가 지배한다는 거 아시죠. 네. 뭐라고요? 우리가 지배한다는 거 아시죠. 우리가 그렇다는 거 아시죠.
Comments 0