저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 채권으로 은퇴 현금흐름을 만드는 것은 비효율적이며, 장기 수익률을 보수적으로 잡고 원금에서 세금효율적으로 정기 인출하는 방식이 더 낫다. 채권의 현금흐름 역할에 대한 비판: 채권은 현금흐름을 만드는 데 잘 맞지 않으며 사실상 '잘못된' 방법이다. 사람들이 채권을 쓰는 이유는 자기통제가 어려워 고정 이자를 받으면 그 금액 안에서만 쓰려 하기 때문이다. 세금 및 수익률 측면: 채권 이자는 taxable 계좌에서 과세되며(지방채 제외), 특히 10년·30년 미국채 금리가 낮아 현금흐름이 크지 않다. 대안(합성 현금흐름): 보수적인 장기 기대수익률을 계산한 뒤, 세금효율적으로 원금에서 그 금액을 정기적으로 인출한다. 포트폴리오는 하나의 큰 풀로 보고 장기적으로 위험 대비 높은 수익을 목표로 구성한다. 채권의 적절한 역할: 채권은 수익 창출이 아니라 단기 변동성 감소 목적으로만 편입해야 한다. 주식·원자재는 변동성이 커 투자자가 심리적으로 힘들어하기 때문이다. 다이어트 비유: 채권 이자 기반 지출은 다이어트 규칙처럼 자기통제 수단일 뿐, 최선은 아니다. 핵심은 통제(control)다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
I'm often asked by normal investors how bonds can help maintain cash flow in retirement. Well, the answer to how they do it is they do it badly. That's how they do it. Can you use bonds to generate cash flow? Yes. Is there a better way to do it than to using bonds? Yes. I'll come back to that in a moment.
But the reason people think cash flow bonds is because they have difficulty with self-control. And the bond, by its nature, pays a certain amount per unit of time, which is cash flow, and they think of that as I got this amount for this period of time, therefore that's what I can spend. And since that's what I can spend, I restrain myself to that spending level, which provides self-discipline.
It's almost like and very much is like a lot of sort of dieting techniques relative to attempts at weight control. The diet tells you what to eat because you have difficulty otherwise with self-control in maintaining the weight. And you know, I don't really have a problem with that. Does that mean it's the best way to do it?
No. It's actually better because bonds, unless they're inside a tax-deferred or tax-free account, are taxed unless it's a muni bond, and the rates on all these are low. Doesn't really allow you to control cash flow very well or generate much cash flow at all. In fact, when you think of how low, let's say for example, 10- or 30-year US Treasury bond rates are, you don't get a lot of cash flow out of that.
The better way to think about it is to manage your investments for long-term return. To calculate a reasonable and conservative long-term return and then in a tax-efficient way, which bonds aren't withdraw principle on a steady basis. This you could think of as a synthetic cash flow. You're just simply taking out of your principle that amount on a regular basis.
If you think of that, so many people will tell you, and they're wrong, I shouldn't spend my principle. And the way you should think about portfolio management and retirement investing it's really one big simple pot. The makeup of the pot should be aimed at trying to have high return relative to risk over time.
And the input of a low return, low risk component for the purpose of anything other than volatility reduction, which bonds are very effective at. I mean, bonds are very effective at reducing portfolio volatility because bonds aren't very volatile in the short term. And if you're trying to reduce your short-term portfolio volatility because some things like stocks or commodities are very, very volatile.
And people often have emotional difficulty handling that volatility the same way they do handling, if you will, in a diet dessert. Me with dessert. I ate one piece of cake, then I want to eat another piece of cake, then I want to eat eat another piece of cake, and pretty soon I weigh 25 lbs more. In that same control fashion, the feature of the volatility of stocks or commodities or many other things drives people crazy.
So, you introduce bond to reduce portfolio volatility, but not to generate yield. The best way to generate yield is to synthetically create it by calculating a very safe, conservative, long-term rate of return, and taking out in a tax-efficient way from your principal that amount of money on a regular basis, and controlling it.
That isn't what you commonly hear from people, but that actually is the best way to proceed. It's all about control. Subscribe to the Fisher Investments .
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