Ken Fisher Explains the Leading Economic Index

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결론: 컨퍼런스보드 경기선행지수(LEI)가 향후 6개월 경기 방향을 알려주며, 미국 LEI의 10개 구성요소 중 S&P500 주가가 가장 강력한 선행지표다. LEI의 역할: 경기가 위로 갈지 아래로 갈지 방향을 알려주지만 얼마나 움직일지는 말해주지 않는다. 미국과 주요 국가·EU별로 각각 따로 작성된다. LEI 구성: ISM 제조업지수, 신규 실업수당 청구건수, 장단기 금리차(수익률곡선) 등 10개 하위지표를 과거 경험 기반 공식으로 합산한다. 지수는 매우 천천히 변하는 안정적 시계열이다. 해석 기준: LEI가 높고 상승 중이면 경제는 괜찮다는 신호, 낮고 하락하면 경기가 나쁘다는 신호다. 하락 전환 후 실제 경기침체 징후가 보이기까지 약 3개월 정도 선행한다. 세세하게 미세조정하려 하지 말 것. 언론 평론가 주장 검증법: 경기 침체 직전에도 누군가 '지금 곧 무너진다'고 말하므로, LEI를 확인해 그 주장이 맞는지 점검하라는 권고. 주가의 선행성: S&P500은 LEI 구성요소이자 가장 강력한 선행지표로, 주가가 양호하면 경제도 괜찮을 가능성이 높고 주가가 나쁘면 나머지 구성요소를 확인하라는 결론. 전망: 과거 경험 기반으로 현 경기 방향은 긍정적이라는 함의(구체적 수치 언급 없음).

다듬은 글

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01. you can see and people ask regularly whether the economy is about to tip over go down is this going to be a big problem that's immediately ahead going to make the economy go south these questions have been asked forever and there's a fairly easy answer for all of them which is that the conference board's leading economic index will tell you over about the next six months whether the economy's headed up or down it doesn't necessarily tell you how much but it basically will point you the direction when you go to the conference board's website just do a simple google search on the conference board you'll see leading economics indexes for the united states and a dozen leading countries and eu and they're constructed uniquely for each country out of indexes that have a long history of when put together telling you the intermediate term direction the economy the us lei is comprised of 10 sub components that are many of them what you might view as relatively obtuse but they're things like the ism manufacturing index things like initial unemployment claims things like the spread between short and long-term interest rates also known as the yield curve which i've talked about near endlessly over the course of my life and these when put together in the formulaic construction of the index which is based on how this has worked over a very long time and these are changed slowly over time but very very slowly it's a very stable index series they do a very good job of telling you the intermediate term of where the economy is headed so when you read some um pundit telling you that things are about to go south here and now or this that or the other of the reverse at a time when we've had recession the lei is a really good way leading economic index is a really good way to see is that all wet or not and again just do a simple google search conference board leading economic index lei it'll take you right to it you can see it in a graphic form and whenever it is high and rising the economy you can see it it's a wiggle chart whenever it's high and rising don't get too precise with it don't try to micromanage it so to speak if it's high and rising the economies can be fine if it's falling and low the economies can be bad if it's looking like it's turned and going down you might have some concerns but it got a turn to go down for a while like three months before you actually begin to see signs of impending recession so ironically in conclusion ironically of the ten and this is sort of my punchline for you the best one of them the most powerful one of them the one that's right in front of everyone's eyes all the darn time that people don't kind of get in their brain this way is the stock market itself in america for the us lei the s p 500 it's one of the ten it's been there as long as they've created this thing since the days that the leading economic index was first created by wesley c mitchell a long long time ago when the gdp series was actually almost brand new shortly after simon kuznets created it in the 1930s and from that you get this really simple concept that probably if the stock market's doing okay you check the lei if you want but if the stock market's doing okay it's already telling you the economy is going to be okay stock market's doing badly maybe check the lei to see what's going on with the rest of the components and how they total together that's my story and i'm sticking with it