Fisher Investments’ Founder, Ken Fisher, Provides His 2023 Energy Outlook

요약 보기

결론: 에너지 주식은 2023년 장기적으로 시장을 하회할 가능성이 크다. [자본주의와 시장 일반론] 케네스 피셔는 자본주의가 물질적 편익의 원천이라고 보지만, 주식시장은 그와 다른 성격이라고 설명한다. [시가총액 상위 기업의 변화] 50여 년 전 세계 시총 상위 20개 기업 중 Eastman Kodak, Polaroid, Xerox, GM, US Steel, Sears 등은 시간이 지나며 사라지거나 쇠퇴했다. IBM은 여전히 크지만 과거의 위상은 아니다. [장기 에너지 전망] 10년 단위로 상위 20개 중 꾸준히 남은 것은 대형 에너지 기업들이며, 이들은 타 종목 대비 매우 강하게 버텨왔다. 인류가 화석연료를 완전히 대체하기 어렵다는 점에서 장기적으로 유지될 것으로 본다. 단, 본인이 틀릴 수 있다고 덧붙였다. [2023년 단기 전망 – 하락 예측] 에너지 주식은 2023년에 시장을 하회(underperform)할 가능성이 높다는 견해다. [근거 1: 약세장 이후 회복 패턴] 약세장에서 가장 많이 빠진 분야가 강세장 초기(약 8~13개월)에 가장 많이 반등하는 경향이 있으며, 2023년은 그 반등기에 해당한다. 약세장에서 상대적으로 잘 버틴 에너지는 새 강세장에서 뒤처지는 경향이 있다. [근거 2: 공급 증가와 가격 하방 압력] 우크라이나 전쟁 이후 고유가·기대 인플레로 전 세계 공급(중동, 미국, 유럽 등)이 늘었고, LNG 터미널도 2022년 제재 대응으로 빠르게 확충됐다. 전쟁 종료·제재 해제 시 공급 여력은 더 커진다. 에너지 주식은 물량보다 가격 민감도가 높아 장기적으로 가격 상한 효과가 주가를 누른다. [성과 확인] 피셔는 2023년 초 현재까지 에너지 주식이 실제로 시장 대비 뒤처지고 있다고 언급했다(2022년 9~10월 저점 이후). [조건·리스크] 전쟁 장기화 등 공급 제약이 지속되면 예측이 빗나갈 수 있다는 암시. 장기 견해와 단기 견해를 구분해 제시. [출연자 전망 요약] 단기(2023): 에너지 주식 시장 하회 / 장기: 대형 에너지 기업 생존·유지 가능성 있음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. foreign I wish I had more energy the fact is I'm going to give you something I've observed over my 50 plus years in the industry when I was young I mean if if you've listened to me a lot of times before you know I believe in capitalism I mean I just think capitalism has been God's Gift in God's Own time to material material benefits for humans every good thing we have whatever it is came to us somehow some way through capitalism but then there's the stock market which is somewhat different thing and all my life there have been the biggest stocks if you go back to when I first started uh in the business a little over 50 years ago there were the 20 largest stocks in the world now this was right during the Heyday of the so-called nifty fifty uh building up into the nifty 50 Heyday I should say it was just getting going and if you go back and look 20 years later at most of the 20 biggest stocks they changed a lot 40 years later they had changed almost 100 not 100 come back to that but in that first group there would have been Eastman Kodak Polaroids Xerox General Motors United States Steel Sears robot and before long they're gone IBM not gone but by today much smaller big company still but not what it was once the largest stock in the world what had remained on those 20 largest stocks throughout every decade has been the few largest energy companies they have just been able to endure in a way that is compared to other stocks unbelievable and I think they probably will because I think people underestimate the degree to which is impossible for this world to sidestep fossil fuel of course I might be wrong that's the long term in the short term when we look at this year 2023 what do I think about energy stocks as stocks I think they probably underperform the market I think they're probably laggers why let me give this a couple Simple Rules one generally whatever did best during a bear Market doesn't during the subsequent bull market generally what does best early in a bull market the first approximate year of it 8 to 13 months roughly is whatever was hardest hit by categories not every stock but categories whatever was hardest hit in the bear Market typically bounce and that bounce effect sometimes starts a little faster sometimes starts a little slower but after about three months is building momentum and going and that would be 2023.

02. then finally we did see tied to events that preceded the Ukraine war and then with the Ukraine war the price of energy go up now it didn't really go up as much as headline numbers because of the discounted Russian oil that went to various countries they did not participate in sanctions and you all know that India and China principally among majors but some others as well but higher energy prices and anticipation of higher energy prices boosted all of the features that are Supply motivated to increase output throughout the other world whether it's the Middle East United States wherever natural gas and the Netherlands wherever and in all of that what I'm saying to you is that tends to decrease subsequent pricing over time terminals built to ship Natural Gas adapted very quickly in 2022 to the dislocations created by sanctions in the war and all of that builds more capacity think it through if and when the war ends and those sanctions go away you have even more relative capacity so what I'm wanting to say to you is all of that tends to damper what will happen because in the end when it comes to energy stocks over time price is actually more important than volume energy stocks are more price sensitive overall than they are volume sensitive and therefore that capping effect on price over time which is 2023.

03. probably puts a damper on now mind you I'm kind of speaking with a little benefit of hindsight here because so far in 2023 energy stocks have lagged energy stocks have lagged overall off the bottom in September October of 2022. but generally that's the way it works the stocks that did best in a bear Market which was energy and to do worse not the worst necessarily but they tend to lag on the upside in a new bull market