저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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배달앱(도어대시·우버이츠·인스타카트)이 소비자 가격 민감도에도 불구하고 호실적을 냈으며, 배달이 팬데믹 이후 필수 습관으로 정착해 구독 멤버십과 함께 지속될 것이라는 주장. 도어대시 매출 23%↑, 우버이츠 총주문 16%↑·EBITDA 79%↑, 인스타카트 GTV 10%↑ 등 실적 근거 제시. 다만 인스타카트는 상장 후 주가 부진으로 신중 태도, 콜스트코·치폴레 등 짧은 Q&A 포함.
다듬은 글
we keep hearing that consumers are cash strapped and pushing back on high prices but like I told you last night it's not that people stopped spending on everything it's that they've gotten more selective always searching for the best bargain and we've seen this from restaurant after restaurant yet somehow last Thursday door Dash manager reported a spectacular quarter door Dash the borderline extortion online food delivery service that we all adore or at least I do and it's my show is looking pretty interesting the stock shot up 8% the next day even as the market melted down by the way we heard the same thing from Uber their Uber Eats businesses on fire which helped that stock to Rally 11% on Tuesday later that same day Maple bear the parent company of instacart reported its own excellent set of numbers allowing the stock to gain 3% yesterday now it doesn't even matter that Maple bear is a ridiculously stupid name all the better to get the word out I guess these online delivery services may be convenient but they do offer what I regard is terrible value so how the heck are they doing this well in an environment where the consumer is supposed to be rebelling against high prices why don't we start with door Dash last Thursday night they surprised the upside with better than expected numbers for every key line item total orders gross order volume revenue and contribution profit door Dash delivered 23% Revenue growth while Rising margins translating to strong earnings for interest taxes depreciation ammonization plus M gave you very healthy guidance for the current quarter substantially better than expected especially on the earnings front how they pull this off on the conference call Q&A session that was the first question POs to co-founder and CEO Tony Shu because it seems crazy that door Dash is doing great when restaurants are seeing softing demand all over the place Sho pointed to two main factors first he explained that digital ordering is still in its early Innings even though restaurants may be struggling digital remains a huge source of growth for the industry even if they're hobl by lower in store traffic he's confident about this because even as door digital penetration still in the single digits and outside of their Network it's even lower than that incredible second Shu pointed out that door Dash's service continues to improve in fact order frequency and customer retention are just as strong if not better now than they were during the pandemic when you were locked in at home plus he noted that door Dash has the lowest cost Logistics Network in most places in the United States and customers are desperate to sign up for their dash pass subscription where you pay $9.99 per month to get delivery fees wave for orders over $12 I think there's one more key driver here though which is that many people got so used to the convenience of these delivery apps during the pandemic that they're now seen as a necessity Yep this looks like a lasting Behavior change from the pandemic in fact people paying up for food on door Dash could be a major reason why they have less money to buy everything else either way this company is doing great and Shu what can I say is a fabulous executive and he's great friends of the restaurant industry AR now how about Uber well it was over a great quarter was just a great quarter overall for the company but right now I want to focus on just one segment of so Uber Eats where gross bookings grew by 16% Revenue came in a little light 8% but EV do expanded by 79% coming much better than expected their guidance for the current quarter was also solid although alsoo slightly lower than expected give them a break when Uber coo Dar C Rari went on squark box on Tuesday morning he had a lot of interesting things to say for one he pointed out that his business has a counter cyclical element because when the labor market gets weak more people want to drive for Uber and Uber Eats that helps improve the service because when they have more drivers the user gets shorter weight times and better pricing but in terms of uber eat star explained that deliveries become a sticky habit sticky for the consumer at the same time while the prices are high you get a much better deal when you sign up for an Uber one membership which gets you zero delivery fees for Uber Eats he says over half of the delivery volumes come from Members so like with door Dash online delivery is only extortionate for the people who don't pay a small monthly subscription fit on Uber's conference call the CFO actually said he was surprised to see just how sticky the food delivery business has become and it seems to be getting even stickier listen to this quote I look back five six quarters of data and it gets better every quarter in terms of eater retention end quote pandemic habit convenience means more time and postco time is now the currency of the realm not so much money finally let's talk about inar I'm I'm Maple bear which I haven't been following as close because the stock hasn't had much going for it since it came public last year and because it's hard to take a company named Maple bear seriously a great name for a stuffed animal though right this was a solid quarter from them instacart's gross transaction value grew 10% year-over-year better than expected with total revenue up 15% also very good and 89% Eaton growth just terrific on top of that management gave you robust guidance for the current quarter in a Sher a letter incart noted that roughly 25 million people used their service over the past year and the company said that this gives them quote a tremendous opportunity to deepen engagement with infrequent C infrequent customers while continue to attract more new users to instacart end quote will it work well you know what I'm still taking a bit of a weight and she approach this instacart that's been my attitude since the IPO September and by the way you haven't missed anything stock's down almost 5% since I told you to steer clear 11 months ago I think the grosser delivery business is tough tough Market no one's been able to achieve huge success here even Amazon with its Whole Food subsidiary people are used to ordering meals like they order food from a waiter at restaurants but most of us still prefer to buy our groceries in person especially if you're shopping for meat or fish or produce you know I like to feel the stuff that said even instaart is putting up extremely solid numbers so clearly millions of people appreciate this convenience after looking over these strong results from door Dash Uber and instacart I keep running returning to one thought it's the fact that meal delivery seems to become an ingrain habit during the pandemic even before the pandemic but especially during the pandemic both door Dash and Uber called out the things that like things like order frequency and customer attention are not just holding up they're actually improving more important people seem to see delivery as a necessity rather than something discretionary which is why these companies can put up great numbers when the restaurants are struggling oh and they know that restaurants mark up liquor ferociously so it's much cheaper to Chow Down at home crack up in a cold one put the lips on your 7in screen and never leave the house sure all three food delivery companies called out the fact the customers are prioritizing affordability and they're trying to give the people what they want often via membership programs that remove delivery fees and that's important but the bottom line door Dash and Uber Eats and instacart can only put up numbers like these because food delivery has become a calcified habit for so many consumers people who value their time as much as they value their money no wonder people don't have excess cash to throw around they're spending it all on door Dash Jihan in Florida Jan hey booah Jim booah what's up Jim I have my son Gian here who has a question for you sure why not booah what do you think of Costco what do I think of Costco oh my with the S with the the gold bars in the morning with the unbelievable Bargains the 3,000 different shopkeeping units I tell you that stock which had a great month last month is a bye bye bye and Sh let me tell GI let me tell you something your kid highest qual highest compliment got th got Horse Sense is the kid oh he is the kid G is the kid hey Gian you got you got Horse Sense there I got a little confused between the parent and the kid there all right Bob in Illinois Bob yes sir I've been uh holder of Cava for quite a while lately it it got up to around 80 and then it it's really been fluctuating in large increments like three and five points a day uh uh do you think this is a good time to get back in they're earning i' like I'd like to hit on a day when has a big Dow drift because exactly what you said it has these bizarre moves and maybe you can get in I mean sweet green just reported terrific number tonight that's going to send Cav up tomorrow so let's be careful don't buy it on an up day buy it on a down day Michael in Arizona Michael hey Jim I hope today's been treating you well the day has actually been a fair you know I went to Eddie I got a good haircut sometimes that can make a day it's like a vacation for me because you don't have a lot to do when you're there what's up hey so I've been looking at the consumer discretionary sector especially following Chipotle's 50 to1 split in June and because their fundamentals still look like they're intact uh is Chipotle looking like a buy sell or a whole gy I think when Brian niichel came on he put the rest that whole notion of smaller sizes which was all a Canard I said to myself these guys are back now the one thing that you have to recognize is that this stock sells at50 times earnings which is high but I have been backing Chipotle since I guess what it would I you know well let's say for 85% because that's how much it was down when they had that terrible uh food scare I don't want to quote more than that because there by the grace of God every single restaurant could have had what happened to them all right food delivery companies have said they're prior prioritizing affordability but I think the real stickiness here is because meal delivery is becoming grained in consumer's Lifestyles and it gives them more time that's why they can keep putting up these great numbers and why they keep probably I think they will Ste continue to do so I like all three hey much more made money in including my S with Zimmer Biomet this medical device maker stock has been less than exciting even though I think their products especially the new products are very impressive I'm getting the latest with the COO and find out if there's more to the story then sometimes your stock is only as good as the sector it's in I'm giving you some examples and telling you how to react when that becomes the case for one of your favorite Holdings the of and of course all your calls rapid fire in tonight's edit
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