Uncertainty around U.S. politics driving global market volatility, says Mark Mobius

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글로벌 시장 변동성은 엔캐리 트레이드 청산과 미국 대선 불확실성에서 비롯되며, 추가 파급효과가 이어질 것이라 봄. 말레이시아 링깃 6% 등 신흥국 통화 강세는 미국 시장 신뢰 약화 신호로 해석. 금리보다 통화량(M2) 흐름을 더 중요하게 봄. 중국은 디플레이션 우려가 완화되며 바닥을 다지는 중이라 보고, 중국 투자 매력이 점차 개선될 것이라 봄. 중동·우크라이나 등 지정학 불확실성도 대선 결과와 얽혀 있다고 진단.

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01. stocks finishing essentially flat on the week but the picture looked a lot different on Monday when the unwinding of the Yen carry trade sparked a global market meltdown and added another level of uncertainty to an already jumpy Market environment so is the worst over well joining us now is Mark Mobius chairman of Mobius emerging opportunities fund it's great to have you back on the show and that's exactly I want to start with you because we've been talking about the unwinding of this Yen carry trade and it's a tricky thing to fully get your arms around do you do you think the worst of this is over do you expect more Ripple effects I think we're going to see more Ripple effects going forward it's just amazing to see what's happening uh in some of these markets around the world particularly emerging countries where their currencies are actually getting stronger against the US dollar which is unusual as you know usually these currencies are weak against the US dollar and you're seeing currencies like the Malaysian ringot going up by 6% against the US dollar that's an incredible change and one after the other you go down list Korea Taiwan all these currencies are up one two 3% against the dollar so this is a signal I believe that there is a waning confidence in the US market and of course A lot of people are burned with the fact that Microsoft Apple these great companies are down by 10 15 20% so I think we're going to see a lot more uncertainty going forward particularly with the election uh coming up uh no one is sure as to what will happen uh whether Harris will come in or whether Trump will come in and of course they're entirely two different programs of those two parties Democrats higher taxes real problems with companies in terms of those taxes and then of course with Trump coming in lots of restrictions on trade so lots of uncertainty out there I would say it sounds like you think political uncertainty is what is causing the dollar to weaken against so many of these currencies is is it's not the anticipation that the FED is finally going to start to cut rates here I think the rates are just one factor I mean I think a lot of people put too much emphasis on the interest rates what they really should be looking at is the money supply you know you saw a money supply going up by 20 plus perc during covid then it came down it actually started decreasing uh now it's come up by 1 or 2% uh you have to keep an eye on that because a lot of this liquidity is squeezing the markets in other lack of liquidity is squeezing the markets a lot of people have spent all that money that was distributed during covid and now they're they're in trouble they have problems and that's the reason why you have this Yen situation and other things happening around the world so I don't think the interest rates are going to be the real determining Factor going forward okay the the last time you were on with me which is a couple weeks ago you said China's investable again here's why I wonder what you think now that we got some data uh overnight from China that that that's showing inflation beginning to perk up I mean the concern had had been deflation we're certainly hearing it in earnings from consumer companies and the like uh that that China seems to be weak what is your sense of that market now What's Happening Now in China is that they're on the men um you know as you mentioned a lot of people were concerned about deflation now you've seen inflation coming back which is a good sign a sign that the consumer is back it's going to take time but generally speaking I think China is on the men and I think you'll see the Chinese market uh doing better as we go forward it's not going to happen overnight but I think it's probably a good time to stop looking at these Chinese stocks we do have these flaring geopolitical tensions in the background I think a lot of folks sitting on their hands wondering uh what happens next in the Middle East specifically how much geopolitical risk premium is priced into the markets here or is this one of those situations where unless something really incendiary happens uh investors are sort of brushing it off well you see that's part of the equation the uncertainty about what's happening in the political environment in America touches on Ukraine touches on the Middle East touches on China because these two political parties will have a different stance and the perception overseas now is that there's lots of uncertainty what what will the Democrats do what will the Republicans do and gener generally speaking the feeling is that the Democrats will be more aggressive uh in Ukraine against Russia and in China whereas Trump may be more moderate but again the uncertainty is very very high