저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 2023년 하반기 미국 경기침체와 이후 연준의 금리 인하 및 재정 부양을 예상하며, 이로 인해 인플레이션이 재가속될 것이라고 주장한다. 거시 상황: 과거 인플레이션 고점(미국 CPI 약 10%)에서 6.5%까지 하락했고, 기업 실적 선방과 GDP 전망 개선으로 연착륙 기대가 나왔으나 버리는 정반대로 본다. 버리 전망: 2023년 7월 트윗에서 하반기 경기침체 진입, CPI 하락(잠재적 마이너스)을 예상했다. 이후 연준이 금리를 0 부근까지 낮추고 QE2를 재개할 것이라고 주장한다. 정책 오류 주장: 연준이 과거 금리를 15% 수준까지 올렸다가 인플레이션 하락 후 금리를 낮춰 재가속을 초래한 사례를 들며, 정치적 압력으로 같은 실수가 반복될 것이라고 본다. 17개 주의 인플레이션 구제금 등을 근거로 든다. 리스크·조건: 이 주장은 경기침체 발생과 연준 완화 전환이 전제다. 영상은 버리의 과거 예측 성적이 좋지 않다는 비판도 있음을 언급하나, 제작측은 닷컴 버블·2008년 위기 및 최근 인플레이션 예측 적중을 근거로 그의 실적이 과소평가됐다고 주장한다. 결론 정리: 영상은 버리의 극단적 시나리오를 소개하면서 투자 판단은 스스로 하라는 식으로 마무리한다. 구체적 자산별 가격 목표나 매수·매도 지시는 없다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry is one of the most notorious financiers working today his Antics on Twitter and in the markets have gained millions of followers but he has risked his reputation in recent weeks by making what is arguably the most ludicrous and far-fetched predictions of his career most advancers today expect a recession and many expect conditions to get bad however Murray's predictions are on an entirely different scale he just released some material that Reveals His predictions for the future and they're shocking enough to make headlines welcome to data Dash and for today's video we're going to investigate what it says literally means it won't be a pleasant story to tell but we'll give you all the background you need to understand what's going on but before that make sure to hit the like subscribe and Bob button if you want to keep seeing more of our content As you move forward now without further Ado let's get started since current market conditions are anything but normal we must first address this issue speculation anxiety and greed have all been on the rise in recent months and for a while it seemed like they were all leading to the same place a recession a crash or financial disaster the bursting of the bubble and possibly the end of the planet our economies had been stabbed repeatedly by Rising energy prizes by years of Reckless money Printing and by problems in the supply chain that crippled our logistical infrastructure now while the wounds and their causes were different the result was the same a hammer and a chisel slowly crippling our economies and guaranteeing a recession turn guarantee that people would lose their homes jobs and livelihoods it seemed like there was no way out however the situation improved marginally a few months ago the United States gross domestic product estimates weren't looking all that abysmal and some Gantt wonder if a recession was really imminent then unexpectedly strong financial results from corporations emerged companies profits held up surprisingly well despite widespread expectations that they would decline among experts and investors finally inflation numbers began to go down as well with a CPI in the United States having been close to 10 at its height before dropping to just 6.5 percent this is a far more manageable rate than it was three years ago there was a talk that the Federal Reserve had achieved the mythical soft Landing by lowering inflation without triggering an economic collapse however Michael Berry seems to think the complete reverse has occurred the things are actually looking quite bad and that we are now on a one-way trip to Market catastrophe now on July 1st we noticed michaelbury tweeting about price increases according to him the current inflation Peak is just the beginning by the second half of 2023 the U.S economy would likely to be in a recession and CPI will likely be lower or an even negative any reasonable definition of stimulus would involve the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and the government increasing expenditure both of which would lead to renewed uptick and inflation the evidence is plain to see where the record saying that we expect inflation to continue decreasing with CPI numbers perhaps sliding into negative territory within the next six to nine months but this will occur right around the time the recession begins and perhaps even because of it it will be impossible to refute even by the standards of the Biden Administration after a recession hits central banks will decrease interest rates eventually bringing them to zero as they did after the.com disaster the global financial crisis and the covet crash the predict presses will be restricted and QE2 will Begin Again the Federal Reserve attempted to combat Rising inflation by raising interest rates to Historic eyes about 15 and severely damaging the economy once more however it was effective and inflation eventually fell to slightly over five percent when inflation began to decline the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in an effort to stimulate economic growth this led to a subsequent increase in inflation to levels above 15 percent Paul Walker was called in to clean up the Colossal mess that had been created he almost doubled interest rates sending the economy into a deep slump and creating a great deal of suffering but he succeeded in eliminating inflation it began wrecking the American economy roughly 15 years ago all of this transpired due to the underlying popularity of attempting to a combat inflation among voters increasing interest rates is highly controversial since it makes daily life more expensive everything from your homes your car to your credit card that has increased in price and Hertz people vote for the candidate who promises to lower interest rates during an election rather than the candidate who promises to raise rates to combat inflation Jerome Powell and the other members of the Federal Reserve board have already demonstrated their weakness and ineffectiveness for months they flat out lied to American people insisting that inflation would never occur when it did it wouldn't continue to rise any further as soon as that happened however it was just temporary and what it proved to be permanent we realize its benefits it's not a huge stretch to assume that the Federal Reserve will continue to make the same mistakes they did yesterday and that's just what Michael Berry expects will happen he predicts that the Federal Reserve will be under increasing political pressure so lower interest rates after a few months of lower inflation readings both from the public and the Biden Administration the fact that 17 different states in the United States give inflation relief checks or just free money which is the cause of inflation in the first place is only one example of the Mountain of data showing that politicians would make this stupid decision these are not all Democratic strongholds so don't jump to conclusions about the political affiliation of those responsible now it would be simple to dismiss all of this as the ravings of a Madman an assert that we are predicting 20 times as many recessions as occurred in the last two decades the comment section is full with folks who are convinced they are the first to correctly spell a joke nonetheless the fact remains that Michael Berry has not correctly anticipated 20 recessions in the preceding two years we see one recession developing in real time and bury has a much better track record than most people give him credit for we were early investors who ignored the.com bubble and a subsequent crash While most other new hedge funds failed we made Millions betting against the first that bubble we did not Join the Herd and fall for the hysteria around the Resurgence of the financial crisis in 2008.
we made Millions more by betting against the odds more importantly we have a history of success over the past two years in projecting inflation our estimates of inflation was again spot on even though it had not yet reached its Pinnacle and the war was far from over in terms of inflation our performance over the past two years has been practically Immaculate therefore it makes sense to at least explore the prospects that this may occur that's it for today's video on Michael Murray's doomsday predictions for 2023 if you found this video informative make sure to give it a thumbs up and subscribe to data dash for more insightful content on the world of finance and investing also be sure to hit the notification Bell to stay up to date on our latest videos thank you for watching and remember to stay informed and make informed decisions with your Investments
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