저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오는 돈과 부채, 인플레이션, 지정학적 변화를 중심으로 한 장기 거시 견해를 밝혔다. [돈과 부채] - 중앙은행은 부채를 경화(hard money)로 갚을지 평가절하된 화폐를 찍어 갚을지 선택해야 하며, 대부분 후자를 택해 인플레이션으로 이어진다고 주장. - 현재가 그런 상황이라고 진단. - 1960~70년대 베트남전과 사회복지 지출로 달러가 평가절하되고 인플레이션이 확대된 사례를 제시. [인플레이션 구조] - 수요 주도형 인플레이션과 통화 인플레이션을 구분하며, 후자가 더 간과되고 있다고 경고. - 통화·신용 증가가 재화·서비스 생산을 초과하면 가격 상승 나선이 생긴다고 설명. - 중앙은행은 금리 인상이나 자산 매각으로 긴축할 수 있으나 경제성장 둔화 등 비용이 따른다고 언급. [지정학과 세계질서] - 2차대전 후 미국이 세계 화폐의 80%, GDP의 절반, 군사 독점력을 보유하며 질서를 설정했으나 중국이 도전하는 구도가 됐다고 진단. - 무역전쟁, 기술전쟁, 지정학적 영향력 전쟁, 자본·경제 전쟁, 군사전쟁의 다섯 단계 갈등을 예상. - 주요 통화들은 실질수익률이 없어 자산이 대안 자산으로 이동 중이라고 설명. - 생산도 이념·정치적 고려와 자급자족 중심으로 재편되고 있다고 언급. [국내 정치·사회] - 미국 양당 구조가 양극화를 키우며 극단 우파 약 30%, 극단 좌파 약 15%라고 언급하고, 중도 정당 필요성을 주장. - 법치와 헌법 준수가 무너지면 내전 유사 상황이 가능하며 그 가능성을 약 40%로 추정. - 1980년 이후 하위 60% 소득이 정체된 이유로 교육·양육·공교육·기회 균등 등 기본 요소 부족을 지적하고, 교육과 인프라 투자를 해법으로 제시. [중국과 역사] - 중국 지도부는 공산당 권력 유지에 편집증적이며 하향식 권위주의 체제를 유지할 것이라고 평가. - 중국은 과거 과거제 등 능력주의를 통해 성공했다는 역사적 맥락을 설명. [결론] - 강한 중도층과 역사 이해, 리더의 비전과 대중 결집 능력이 중요하다고 강조. - 구체적인 투자 종목이나 가격 목표에 대한 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Crypto Corner, the channel that explores the exciting world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. In this video, we will delve into the insights and perspectives of Ray Dalio, one of the world's most successful investors, as he shares his thoughts on leadership and currency. But before we go on, make sure to hit the like and subscribe button to stay updated on more of our content. Now, let's get into it.
Ray Dalio highlights the timeless nature of cause-and-effect relationships. While there is evolution over time, there are also repeating cycles. He gives the example of the Federal Reserve, which is often put in the position of having to choose between allowing defaults or printing money. This choice has repeated throughout history, and by examining the reactions and choices made in these situations, we can gain insight into the cause-and-effect relationships that remain constant over time.
Dalio notes that throughout history there has always been a fight for power, because there is no world court to appeal to. After World War II, the United States emerged as the dominant power, with 80 percent of the world's money, half of the world's GDP, and a monopoly on military power. As a result, the U.S. set the world order, and institutions such as the United Nations, IMF, and World Bank were established in New York and Washington, D.C.
However, Dalio also acknowledges that things evolve and change over time, and there are three big changes happening now that haven't occurred in our lifetime.
The first is the amount of debt and money creation, which affects the value of money and has a daily impact. Central bankers are faced with a choice: pay back debt with hard money, or with printed, devalued money. In most cases they choose the latter, which eventually leads to inflation. This is the situation we find ourselves in currently.
The second big change is the great internal conflict that arises when there is a large wealth and values gap coupled with a financial problem. This is when we see the rise of populism on both the left and the right. Those who feel disenfranchised become fighters, not compromisers, leading to hardened positions and no compromise. Dalio warns that in some upcoming elections we could potentially see a situation where neither side would accept losing, and they might not even follow the rulings of the Supreme Court.
The third big change is the rise of a great power to challenge the existing great power, such as China challenging the United States. There are five kinds of wars that typically start in sequence: a trade war, a technology war, a geopolitical influence war, a capital and economic war, and finally a military war.
Dalio cautions against looking at the economy in the rear-view mirror and only seeing low levels of inflation without understanding monetary inflation. There are two types of inflation: demand-driven inflation and monetary inflation. The latter occurs when the increase in money and credit exceeds the production of goods and services, leading to a spiral of rising prices. The selling of bonds exacerbates the imbalance, and either interest rates have to go up or the central bank has to print more money, which they always do.
This type of inflation doesn't get enough attention, but it can lead to situations like the inflationary depressions seen in the Weimar Republic in the early 1920s.
Dalio also discussed the challenges of the monetary situation, including the relationship between debt and inflation. According to him, when a lot of debt exists, paying it back becomes a challenge for the central bank, which must decide whether to pay it back in hard or depreciated money. This can lead to stagflation, characterized by low economic growth and high inflation.
Dalio pointed to the late 1960s and early 1970s as an example of this phenomenon. At that time, the U.S. spent a lot of money on both the Vietnam War and social programs, which resulted in too many claims on the dollar relative to the amount of gold in reserve. This led to the devaluation of the dollar and a subsequent increase in inflation. To combat inflation, the Federal Reserve can reduce the amount of money and credit available by selling debt assets and raising interest rates. However, this can come at a cost, including reduced buying power and slower economic growth.
Dalio also explained inflation in a simple way: it is a function of the amount of money and credit produced relative to the amount of goods and services sold. Currently, a large amount of money and credit is being produced, but there are bottlenecks and production disruptions due to factors such as COVID-19 and geopolitical issues.
Dalio also discussed the United States' position in the global economy, noting that it is no longer the dominant military or economic power. China has become a larger trading partner with other countries, and the U.S. is in relative decline. This raises the question of what the new global currency will be: a government currency, cryptocurrency, gold, or something else entirely.
Finally, Dalio touched on the importance of currency as a medium of exchange and a store of wealth. Bonds that store currency must have a real return, but none of the major currencies currently offers one. This has resulted in movements out of major currencies and into other assets, and the bond market has responded accordingly. Production is also now being driven by ideological and political considerations, with self-sufficiency becoming a more important factor for countries and multinational corporations.
He also emphasizes the need for a strong middle ground in politics. The current two-party political system in the United States can lead to extremism on both sides: roughly 30 percent of the population is extreme right and 15 percent extreme left. However, the majority of Americans are in the middle, and he believes a third party with a platform for the middle could help draw people away from the extremes.
Dalio believes that investing in education and infrastructure is crucial for broad-based prosperity, but the lack of a middle party prevents this from happening. He warns that failure to follow the rule of law and the Constitution could lead to a civil-war-like situation. He gives examples such as a seat in government being occupied by someone who wasn't elected, or the Supreme Court's rulings not being followed by the states. When the rule of law is disregarded, it becomes a matter of force, and it could lead to violence. He estimates the possibility of such an occurrence at around 40 percent.
He also noted that people tend to pick a side and get their information through media outlets, and he questioned the objectivity of the media and its ability to report without bias.
Since 1980, per capita income for the bottom 60 percent of the population has not risen, and he believes this is because the reinvestment of gains does not trickle down to build the basics. According to him, the basics are good parenting, a good public education system, and equal opportunity. He highlights the importance of providing these basics to people in order to create a prosperous society. A growing population that lacks these basics leads to disenfranchisement and other issues, and he believes this is part of why Donald Trump was elected president. The solution, he believes, is to invest in education and infrastructure and to create a platform for the middle that draws people away from extremism.
He also discusses how the international lending system operates. According to Dalio, countries like the United States have been the largest lenders, and could have lent in their own currency but chose not to because they saw it as a threat. The goal of such countries is not to disrupt the world order, but to be as great, rich, and powerful as possible.
Dalio explains that historically, international relations have been similar to Confucianism, where countries form a tributary system and each knows its place in the hierarchy. Other countries would almost be like vassal states, acknowledging the power of others and operating in harmonious ways. However, Dalio emphasizes that the Chinese leadership is paranoid about maintaining the power of the Communist Party. They believe in a top-down autocratic system, while Americans believe in a more bottom-up approach to democracy.
This difference in ideologies and approaches to governance has led to conflicts, such as the Chinese government's punishment of an NBA team and the league as a whole when players spoke out on Hong Kong. Dalio notes that the Chinese will not give up their approach any more than Americans would give up the Constitution or their freedom of speech. At the same time, we must understand that China's approach to government is like a religion to them, just as different religions have deeply held beliefs all over the world. He also notes that every individual who buys products from or interacts with China is faced with difficult questions about how to approach the issue of human rights.
Dalio relies on the guidance of both governments and has studied Chinese history to understand their approach to governance. He notes that the Confucian system was the first meritocracy, creating broad-based education and exams to select the most capable individuals for jobs, thereby reducing corruption. While there have been good and bad dynasties in China's history, the common ingredients of success have remained the same.
Ray Dalio added that the qualities of a great leader are consistent throughout history, and how they adapt to changing circumstances matters. He believes a great leader understands circumstances and has a vision to carry that forward, while also being able to get the population behind him. He thinks a strong middle is crucial for the population to work together and make progress.
That was Ray Dalio's take on the qualities of great leadership and the importance of understanding history in making investment decisions. As always, we hope you found this video informative and thought-provoking. Don't forget to hit the subscribe button and turn on the notification bell for more exciting content on cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. This is Crypto Corner, and we'll see you in our next video.
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