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버핏·멍거 주주총회 Q&A 발췌 영상으로, 투기와 카지노식 시장 특성, 시장 공포 확산의 위험과 기회, 배우자 유산 투자 방향(S&P500 인덱스 추천)을 다룬다. 시장 투기: 투기는 카지노 같은 매력이 있어 사람들이 쉽게 빠지며, 특히 주변 사람이 돈을 번 것을 보면 더 쉽게 따라간다고 설명한다. 투기 확산 사례: 과거 인터넷 주식 열풍을 언급하며, 투기가 자기실현적으로 확산되다가 결국 심판의 날이 온다고 경고한다. 중국 시장 전망: 신생 시장인 중국은 광범위한 참여로 극단적 경험을 할 가능성이 크다고 본다. 공포 심리: 2008년 9월 머니마켓펀드에 3.5조 달러가 몰려 있었으나 3주 뒤 1,750억 달러가 3일 만에 빠져나갔다고 설명하며, 대중 심리의 극단성이 투자자에게 기회를 준다고 말한다. 버크셔 전망: 시장이 극단적으로 흔들리면 버크셔가 상대적으로 잘 버틸 것이라고 말한다. 배우자 유산: 버핏은 자신의 버크셔 주식 대부분(약 40% 이상이 이미 기부됨)을 자선단체에 기부하며, 배우자에게는 S&P500 인덱스 펀드를 추천한다. 멍거는 버크셔 보유를 선호한다는 의견을 밝힌다. 개인 일화: 버핏이 사용하던 중고 캐딜락을 기부해 매각 수익을 Girls Inc에 전달한 사연을 소개한다. 은퇴와 교육: 버핏은 자신의 유산으로 가르치는 일을 가장 중요하게 여긴다고 말한다.
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markets have a casino characteristic that has a lot of appeal to uh people particularly when they see like I say people getting rich around them and those who haven't been through Cycles before are probably a little more prone to uh speculate than people who have have experienced the the outcome of wild speculation in any system uh KES wrote about this in 19 36 I think it was in the general theory or 35 I think it's chapter 12 what is best great chapter on investing and he talked about investment in speculation and the propensity of people to speculate and the dangers of it and word it eloquently there's always the possibility of I mean there's always some speculation obviously and there's always some value investors and all of that sort of thing in the market Market but there's when speculation gets rampant and when you're getting what I guess Charlie would call social proof uh that it's worked recently people can get very excited about speculating in markets and we will have it from time to time in this market there's nothing more agonizing than to see your neighbor who you think has an IQ about 30 points below you getting richer than you are by buying stocks and whether it's internet stocks or whatever and and people succumb to it and they'll succumb in this economy just as elsewhere there's also a point which gets to your question I would say that early on in the development of markets uh there's probably a a there's some tendency for them I think to be more speculative than markets have been around for a couple hundred years uh because the it it has a invest markets have a casino characteristic that has a lot of appeal to uh people particularly when they see like I say people getting rich around them and those who haven't been through Cycles before are probably a little more prone to uh speculate than people who have have experienced the the outcome of wild speculations I you know basically in this country uh van Graham was in the book I read in 1949 was preaching investment and and that book continues to sell very well but if the market gets hot uh new issues are doing well and and people on Leverage are doing well uh a lot of people will be attracted to not only speculation but what I would call gambling and I'm afraid that that will that will be true in the United States and I I think that that China being a newer uh Market essentially in which there's widespread participation is likely to have some pretty extreme experiences in that respect we will have some in this country too Charlie well I certainly agree with that the the Chinese will have more trouble they're very bright people they have a lot of action and and uh sure they're going to be more speculative and it's a dumb idea and to the extent you're working on it why you're on the side of the Angels but lots of luck well it will it will it will offer the investor more opportunities actually uh it if they can keep their wits about them if you have wild speculation I mean we Charlie just mentioned earlier you know that if we get into periods that are very tough burshire Berkshire certainly will do reasonably well because it it it it won't and we won't be we won't get fearful and fear spreads like you cannot believe until you've seen a few examples of it at the start of September 2008 you had 35 million people with their money and money market funds with 3.5 trillion dollar in them and none of them were afraid that that dollar wasn't going to be a dollar when they went to cash in their money market fund and three weeks later they were all terrified and the 175 billion float out in three days and so the way the public can react is really extreme in markets uh and that actually offers opportunities for investors uh you'll never people like action and they like to gamble and if they think there's easy money to be made a lot of them you'll get a rush to it and for a while it will be self-fulfilling and create new convert converts until the Day of Reckoning comes so uh just keep preaching investing and and if the market swings around a lot you you'll keep adding a few people here and there to the to a group that recognizes that markets are are there to be taken advantage of rather than to instruct you as to what is going on are we up there in station are you in station form Dr Bruce Herz from Glen View Illinois I wanted to thank you for allowing me to attend I feel both honored and blessed my question for Mr buffit is you've always advised us to purchase equities that appreciate and value yet a few years ago you sold your used Cadillac at a tremendous profit how can you justify selling a depreciating asset for a significant profit thank you yeah well actually I gave it to Girls Inc and they sold it and and uh that was kind of an interesting a very nice guy bought it for $100 and some thousand and uh uh uh I did not uh and girls a got the money and he got him he came later actually with his family and he drove it away without any place he was driving back to New York and he got picked up by the police uh in Illinois and he said well he started giving this explanation about how he giv this money to Girls Inc and was driving the car back and had this nice looking family with him and the cops were quite quite uh skeptical but fortunately I had signed the dashboard form as part of the deal when he get and so they looked at that and then they just said well did he give you any stock tips and they let him go and I I I can't recall ever selling a used car at to profit but but uh uh um we uh I don't I don't think I going sold any personal possession well I've got a house for you don't have any personal possession yeah yeah now I uh any anything you see with a figure attached like that you're a fatter version of mamas Gandhi MMA Gandhi the guy was a very nice guy that bought it and that's check cleared so we're fine be in um I'd like to qu ask a question that can serve as a followup to the question that Carol had asked and Charlie in that response said that he thinks the berkshire's businesses on the whole will do better than the S&P 500 Clark Cameron from Birmingham Alabama who owns 281 shares in Berkshire B writes in and asks why have you advised your wife to invest in index funds after your death rather than Berkshire Hathaway I believe Munger has Cel his office spring to quote not be so dumb as to sell yeah she she won't be she won't be selling any Burkshire to buy the index funds all all of my Burkshire every single share will go to philanthropy so the I don't even regard myself as owning Burkshire you know basically it's it's committed and I so far about 40% % has already been distributed so the question is somebody who is not an investment professional will be I hope reasonably elderly by the time that the uh uh state gets settled and what is the best investment meaning one that there would be less worry of any kind connected with andless people coming around and saying why don't you sell this and do something else and all those things she's going to have more money than she needs and the big thing then you want is money not to be a problem and there will be no way that if she holds the S&P virtually no way absent something happened with weapons of mass destruction but virtually no way that she W she'll have all the money that she possibly can use she'll have a little liquid money so that if stocks are down tremendously at some point there they Clos the stock exchange for a while anything like that she'll still feel that she's got plenty of money and the object is not to maximize it doesn't make any difference whether the amount she gets doubles or triples or anything of the sort the the important thing is that she never worries about money the rest of her life and I had an aunt Katie here in Omaha who Charlie knew well and worked for her husband as did I and she worked very hard all her life and had lived in a house she paid I think I don't know $8,000 for it 45th in Hickory all her life and uh because she was in birkshire uh she ended up she lived in ' 97 she ended up with you know few hundred million and she would write me a letter every four or five months and she'd said dear Warren you know I hate to bother you but am I going to run out of money and and I would I would write her back and I'd say dear Katie it's a good question because if you live 986 years you're going to run out of money and and then about four or five months later she'd write me the same letter again and I I have seen there's no way in the world if you've got plenty of money that it should become a a minus in your life and there will be people if you've got a lot of money that come around with various suggestions for you sometimes well meaning sometimes not so meaning so if you've got something as certain to deliver you know it was all in Berkshire they'd say well if Warren was alive today you know he would be telling you to do this I I just don't want anybody to go through that and the S&P will be a I think actually what I'm suggesting is what what a very high percentage of people should do something like that and I don't think they will have as I think there's a chance they won't have as much peace of mind if they own one stock and they've got neighbors and friends and relatives that are trying to do some like I say sometimes well-intentioned sometimes otherwise to do something else and so I think it's a policy that will get a good result and is likely to stick Charlie well as Becky said the wers are different yeah I I I want them to hold the Burkshire well I want to hold the Burkshire too no I bet I mean I I I don't like the I recognize the logic of the fact that that S&P algorithm is very hard to beat in a diversified portfolio of big companies it's all but impossible for most people but you know it's I'm just more comfortable with the burshire well it's the family business yeah yeah yeah but but it it uh I've just I've seen too many people as they get older or particularly being susceptible just having to listen to the arguments of people coming well if you're going to protect your HS from the stupidity of others you may have some good system but I'm not much interested in that subject okay you guys have iron bladders we won't tell you the secret of that I was wondering about a Contraption under the no table no you can come down and inspect all right hey I had a question for each uh Warren I was fortunate to ask you a question I think in 2011 about Legacy what you wanted to be known for a 100 years from now and I kind of curious to hear what Charlie would like to be known for and Warren I'm 52 so I guess you started this doing this when I was uh born and I I'm kind of interested in a memory from your first annual annual meeting my first me memory when waren got on this subject and I asked him what he wanted said at his funeral he said I want them to all be saying that's the oldest looking corpse I ever saw and and that may be the smartest thing I ever said tell well with me um very simple I it uh I really like teaching so basically that that I've been doing it formally and you can say somewhat informally all my life and I had certainly had the greatest teachers you can imagine so uh if somebody thought that I did a decent job at teaching I'd feel very good about that thank yeah I to make the teaching endurable has to have a bit of wise assery in it and that we've both been able to supply and for those of you who are oldtime basketball fans I might mention that on will Chamberlain's tomb it was reputed it was going to say at last I sleep alone okay station nine
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