저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 장단기 금리 역전은 경기침체 신호이지만 유럽 마이너스금리 등으로 왜곡돼 과신은 금물이며, 투자자는 위험을 줄이되 기회를 찾아야 한다. 금리 역전: 장단기 금리차가 2007년 이후 처음 역전됐고 지난 7번의 경기침체 전에 모두 역전이 있었다. 엘-에리언은 유럽 마이너스금리(약 16조 달러)와 연준-시장의 상호의존으로 신호가 왜곡됐다고 봤다. 다만 역전이 예언이 되는 자기충족적 기대는 경계해야 한다고 했다. 연준 전망: 잭슨홀 회의에서 연준이 시장 불안을 어떻게 설명할지 불확실하다. 연준은 작년 4분기 경기와 시장을 잘못 진단했고, 무역정책 불확실성까지 겹쳐 어려운 상황이다. 9월 FOMC에서 25bp 또는 50bp 인하 여부를 시장이 베팅 중이며, 자산가격 방어 효과도 제한적이라고 봤다. 투자 전략: 신흥국 등에서 괴리로 인한 기회가 생기겠지만 기회주의적으로 접근해야 한다. 미국 비중을 줄여 유럽에 투자하는 것은 피해야 한다(미국 경제가 상대적으로 낫다). 사모신용 시장에 기회가 있으나 헤지 구조가 있어야 한다. 공모지수만 보유한다면 리스크를 줄여야 한다. 반론(Kevin Mahn): 역전 후 평균 20~22개월 뒤 침체가 왔고 역전 후 1년간 S&P는 평균 약 12% 상승했다. 경제가 여전히 성장 중이므로 시장 달래기용 금리인하는 정당화되기 어렵다고 봤다. 엘-에리언은 연준이 시장에 인질로 잡혀 있어 인하할 가능성이 있다고 응수했다. 유럽·중국: 독일이 2분기 역성장했고 유럽은 세계의 '아픈 사람'이다. 중국은 단기 부양과 구조개혁 사이에서 상충이 생겨 구조적 불균형이 심화되고 있다. 미국이 상대적으로 가장 나은 위치다. 금리 전망: 타이·뉴질랜드·인도 등이 금리를 내리고 있다. 미 10년물은 약 1.61%다. 미국채 금리가 마이너스로 가면 생명보험·연금 설계가 어려워지고 은행 시스템이 흔들려 매우 우려스럽다. 연준이 너무 빨리 내리면 유럽 실수를 반복할 수 있다. 리스크: 2008년 같은 결제·정산 시스템 충격 위험은 낮다. 그러나 장기간 풍부한 유동성 공급으로 유동성 불일치가 과소평가되고 있으며, 특히 유동성 낮은 시장에 투자하는 ETF의 유동성 리스크를 가장 경계해야 한다.
다듬은 글
let's talk more about these markets today and this inversion it's our top story the yield curve inverted today for the first time since 2007 signaling that the US could be headed for a recession the relationship is the most closely watched section of the yield curve it's inverted before each of the last seven recessions joining us now today's panel Henny and a wash asset management president and chief investment officer Kevin maan and Yahoo Finance's Brian Chang also joining us from Irvine California Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed el-erian Mohamed it's always great to see you and especially so on a day when we have a lot of confusion and consternation in the market because you're very good at sort of breaking it down helping people understand it so how alarmed should investors be about this inversion so there should be alarmed to the extent that this can create a self-feeding expectation on the economic side that is this is a traditional signal of recession therefore recession is coming therefore the consumer cuts back business cuts back and next thing you know we slow down I don't think this should be treated as a traditional signal because the yield curve is heavily distorted by two things one negative rates in Europe and we've now got sixteen trillion Julie sixteen trillion dollars of Vaughn's training at negative yields because of what's happening in Europe and the second distortion is this unhealthy codependence between markets and the Fed so I think the traditional signal is not as valid as the distortions are in driving the yield curve Mohamed I'm curious you brought up the Fed and we know that they're all going to be meeting next week in Jackson Hole for the annual conference the Kansas City Fed what do you think they're going to be saying publicly we're going to have a lot of comments will they even address this will they say remain calm all is well I don't know even what we should hopeful because they have tended to slip when it comes to communication I think that their feel for market technicals is not as strong as it used to and that's why we've had these major slips in the last year so I think if you look inside what they're thinking they're gonna be worried about three things one is why did they so mal diagnose both markets and the global economy in the last quarter of last year and how do they get out of that hole secondly what do you do when markets are forcing you to do something but the economy doesn't justify it and thirdly what how do you operate with great uncertainty about trade policy this is a really tough environment for central banks it's tough for the Fed it's a hundred times tougher for the ECB by the way hey Mohammad Brian Chong here so on that point then after the Fed meets in Jackson Hole they will have another FOMC meeting in September it seems like markets are betting on whether or not we'll get 25 basis points or 50 basis points now what does the Yoker tell you about a whether or not the 25 basis point cut that was done in July was good enough and B what the next move should be given that the feds mandate isn't necessarily too steep in the old curve but that obviously the old curve is telling them something maybe endogenous about what else is going on in the economy so thanks for bringing that up because the Fed is being forced now not only to cut 25 basis points in September but on the increasing pressure to cut 50 basis points in September and that's coming at the same time as the narrative has evolved I find it fascinating it used to be look the Fed can't do much about the economy but it can bolster asset prices it involved - I'm not so sure that the Fed can even bolster asset prices given what's happening elsewhere now there's increasing talk about a fat fed cut sending the wrong signal so the Fed is really put in a corner one it can't resist a market too much otherwise the market will punished the economy but - even if it moves it will have very little impact on the economy and it may actually be problematic for financial markets so the Fed and other central banks are increasingly being put in a corner by the way it's not their fault it's simply that they've carried the burden of policymaking for too long so they're in a tough spot and I think investors are in a tough spot here Muhammad because not only do they have the inversion to contend with they have the Fed and other central banks to contend with and we haven't even brought up trade yet by the way and tariffs which are another steep hill for them to climb in terms of figuring out what to do so what should investors do should they sort of ignore all of this and just stay long US stocks and stay the course so you know that's a really complicated questions I think there's a few things you can deduce with a relatively high level of conviction one is you're gonna get disruptions in various related asset classes so look at the emerging markets look what's haven't been happening there look at what's been happening in certain parts of of the high-yield market so the first thing is you will get opportunities but they're gonna be opportunistic and mainly due to dislocations the second is do not fade the u.s.
in trade in particular don't be tempted to reduce US exposure in favor of European exposure some people are telling you to do it the u.s. is still better off economically finally there's a lot happening in the private credit markets so if you have someone who can structure these things well which means that you have hedges that are built in there are opportunities but if all you will lie on is the public markets and all you rely on all the broad indices I think you want to take down risk at this point hey Muhammad Kevin man here I I agree with you that this may in fact be a false indicator of a upcoming or pending recession but let's say it is an accurate indicator on average it takes 20 to 22 months for the onset of a recession after the yield curve converts and on average the SP Rises about 12 percent the year after the old curve inverts so with that being the case and with the underlying economic growth slowing but still growing with the consumer still relatively confident why would the Fed need to cut rates in that environment just to appease the markets yeah I think if you look at this signals including what you decided it's hard to argue that the Fed should cut from these levels you know the the economy is okay and even if it's we're gonna slow down it's not clear that rate cuts do anything to bolster the economy you need other pro-growth policies however Kevin the problem is what happens to the markets if the Fed doesn't it got a real scare in the fourth quarter of last year why because suddenly the tale the markets could start shaking the dog which is the economy and what they're worried about is a financial disruption undermining economic confidence remember fundamentals are down here asset prices are up here they've been elevated by all this unconventional policy so they're worried about asset crisis not just coming down so with fundamentals but pushing fundamentals down that's why they're gonna cut it's not because of traditional argument is because they're being held hostage by markets well let's talk about one of the things that it kind of is you know pointing and their direction that's Germany's economy it shrank in the second quarter and China reported weak data sharpening fears of slowing global growth is the trade war between the United States and China drags on we want to continue the discussion with the panel and Muhammad about halt how all of this plays into not only what the Fed is considering but how I as an investor need to consider where I'm gonna be putting money I mean when you heard the data out of China in Germany you weren't surprised were you and if you were what did surprise you I wasn't I've been warning for a while now that Europe is a systemically most vulnerable area be careful of what I call stall speed which means growth goes down so much that you can't keep other things healthy anymore and we met and Germany is the powerhouse economy in Europe German is supposed to be the most predictable most robust and we've had as you said a second quarter of contraction so Europe is very much the sick person of the world China is a little bit trickier because they're still growing even less the problem with China is that there's a trade-off now between short stimulus which attempted to do and long-term reforms and the more they do on the stimulus fund the more they undermine the long-term reforms so China is also getting structurally imbalanced it just tells you that the u.s.
is so far by you know the better place in terms of economic momentum and economic robustness so muhammad' you say that the u.s. is kind of the the brighter spot at the moment in what might look like a dark world but we've seen that other central banks around the world have been lowering rates Thailand New Zealand India so it raises the question about how close we might expect the Fed to get back down to zero and what that might do to Treasury's right we've seen that we're at 1.61 I think on the 10-year should we expect a world where we're actually gonna see negative yields on US debt if we do I'm gonna be really worried because negative yields in the US the world's biggest financial market will break things the system is not built to operate with negative yields negative yields take away the provision of long term financial protection products you cannot offer good life insurance you cannot have a good retirement plan at negative yields so that makes a consumer the household much more risk-averse negative yields start breaking things in the banking system negative yields have huge implications for how the economy operated so if we get to negative yields this is really worrisome and the Fed has to worry about that because we can get there if the Fed lowers interest rates too quickly the ECB made that mistake and they can't get out of it and the Fed has to be careful not to make the same mistake so Muhammad given all of the risks that we've been talking about over the past few moments what is the risk of a shock to global markets or do you think we're just going to continue to see the sort of bouncing around so the good news Julie and there is good news is one the source of the big shock in 2008 the payments and settlement system the ability of people to trust account that risk is very low central bank's learned a very painful lesson in 2008 and the payment and settlement system is very robust the second bit of good news is that the banks that transmit shocks are in a good place in the US so you won't get what I call the sudden stop what people worry about most the loss of trust in financial markets that then brings everything to a standstill but we have another risk that I think is totally underestimated and that is the liquidity risk because of the ample and predictable provision of liquidity by central banks for years the system has promised too much liquidity to the end users so there's a lot of illiquid pockets in liquid instruments and that's the mismatch I worry about most so be careful how much a liquidity risks we've taken in the liquid instrument in ETFs for example offered on the non liquid segments of the markets alright a good closing warning for investors thank you so much it great to get time with you Mohamed el-erian is chief economic adviser at Allianz thanks Mohamed
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