저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 기술주 반등은 싸진 가격 덕분이지만 실적 시즌 이후 밸류 효과가 사라질 수 있어, 기술주는 달리게 두되 소비재보다 싼 종목 위주로 보라는 취지. 시장 개요: 다우는 392포인트 하락, 나스닥은 0.14% 상승해 7거래일 연속 상승. 반도체·소프트웨어 등 부진했던 기술주가 반등. 은행 실적: JP모건 등 대형 은행은 양호. 골드만삭스는 실망스러운 콘퍼런스콜로 6% 하락, 모건스탠리는 자산관리 강점으로 약 6% 상승. 애플: PER 22배로 소비재 기업(클로록스, 처치앤드와이트, 콜게이트 25~36배)보다 싸졌다고 지적. 주가가 182달러에서 135달러로 하락. 강한 가이던스 가능성 언급. 장기 보유 권고, 매매 대상 아님. 테슬라: 가격 인하와 목표가 하향이 이어졌으나 하루 9달러 반등. 1월 3일 기준 이익 추정치의 20배. 고품질 기업은 하락 시 더 싸진다는 견해. 마이크로소프트: 매도 등급 하향 후 25~30배 수준으로 싸다는 견해. 비용 절감·대규모 감원 가능성 보도가 긍정적. 메타·세일즈포스 사례 언급. 알파벳·아마존: 비용 통제 실패로 주가 약세(아마존 -2달러, 구글 -0.83달러). 팔로알토 네트웍스 외 소프트웨어·사이버보안 기업은 수익성 전환 근거 부족. 엔비디아: 컵앤핸들 차트 형성으로 바닥 가능성 언급. AMD는 20배 PER로 엔비디아(40배 이상)보다 저렴. 중국 관계 개선 시 엔비디아 수혜 가능성. 경기 지표: 뉴욕 연은 제조업 지수 매우 약함. 경기민감주 매도가 과거 랠리 종료를 시사할 수 있으나, 그는 전통 경기주 매수 기회로 봄. 10년물 국채 금리 4.2%. 셰브론: 베네수엘라 사업과 캘리포니아 점유율, 자사주 매입으로 승자 유지 전망. 석유 가격 배럴당 80달러대 가정 언급. 리스크: 실적 시즌이 시작되면 기술주의 저평가 매력이 사라질 수 있음. 손절 충동을 경계하며 강세 추세 유지 가능성 언급.
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they have money Starts Now help you so Tech has a pulse no a real post after all yeah Tech's been the weeks part of this market for ages today the Dow tumbled 392 points has to be declined 0.21 and the NASDAQ actually rallied 0.14 now that was the seventh positive day in a row but this time it was actually led by some stocks that had been hurting it the beleaguer software and semiconductor stocks they're making a comeback at least today now people in flocking to the mighty Dow been on going with the bluest of Blue Chips while abandoning anything that seemed expensive Queen must attack today though it sure looked like Tex finally gotten cheap enough to survive even the toughest downgrades but make no mistake this is a count of trend rally the companies that have reported so far are chief of the large banks have been superb even as it was overshadowed today by the disappointment from Goldman Sachs it was a bizarre and frankly hopefully aberrant conference call filled with distractions frankly I think Morgan Stanley up nearly six percent is a bigger deal than Goldman down six percent if only because it finally dawned on people that Morgan Stanley has become a repository of wealth management not just from Hostage to trading or underwriting Warren certainly isn't leading the pack of banks it's leaving the pack behind which is why it's not getting a higher price attorneys multiple as a reward for its more consistent business but ultimately will we'll learn that later what really matters today is that the decline in the Dow Mass the robust session for some of the more forlorn parts of the NASDAQ and that strength deserves an explanation because I know that some of you have been losing money would be very gratified by what happened today first as I mentioned if you punish a group daily for being too expensive eventually it's going to get cheap take apple now here it has there's a stock it now sells for upholstery 22 times earnings I regard as poultry because it's such a great company Apple is a Premier Technology Enterprise of our time unrivaled brand yet it stock sells much cheaper than Clorox or church and Dwight or Colgate palmol all would sell for anywhere from 25 to 36 times earnings I'm always comparing Apple to these companies because they're big consistent consumer Brands but Apple's so much more than that it's a classic technology innovator it's a traded a premium not a discount but now it's gotten cheap after the Stock's flown from 182 to 135 now throw in some incredibly bullish research that we heard today which suggests that Apple might give us a strong forecast when it reports and then you can understand why you got a nice rally now I know Apple isn't technically a consumer Products Company it's a tech leader but how the heck did it get cheaper than bleach now I am less silent about this forecast issue I doubt Apple give us strong guidance aside from the weekend dollar I don't want anyone buying the stock one anything other than the lifetime value of its customer base Which is far in excess of the kind of customer loyalty you see for say a water pick or a Colgate toothbrush both worthy pieces of technology in their own right although they don't hold a candle to the iPhone as always I say own Apple don't trade it but it's straight today reminds us that stocks do get cheaper when they go down and you know what Tesla's in the same boat Tesla look here's a company has been forced to slash prices almost as fast as the stock has been slashed it's comes out so low and Tesla stock was selling for 20 times Ernie's estimates at the close of January 3rd rally today up nine bucks is significant because it comes on the heels of four price Target cuts and a Severe estimate cut by a respected Analyst at the stock reward today again I think that's a function of Tesla being not an expensive car company but a cheap tech company oh then there's the real conundrum which is Microsoft now we sold some for the travel trust last week suddenly we discussed several times for the edification of club members and we did it so because management didn't seem to have a sense of urgency when it comes to cutting overhead even as their own customers are pulling back the stock got downgraded today to a sell sell sell sell buy one firm today I was shocked it's odd giving the company's uh consistency I worried it might be some kind of coup de crop for the Bulls action instead as a Clarion call that Microsoft might be too cheap down here at 25 times 30.
Hey listen it was it 35 times 30 it's not that long no stocks again of high quality companies do get cheaper when they go down not low Quality Companies but high quality companies really Microsoft was boosted by a leak also that they might be planning big layoffs a formula for success in Tech because it tells you management recognizes the new reality is a lot more cyclical and they want to get the earnings more in line with their revenues there's urgency and why not it worked for meta platforms formerly Facebook and it worked for Salesforce at least so far why not Microsoft any good news on this front is buttressed by the seeming inability of alphabet or Amazon to get with the darn program we're all waiting for something to happen from these silent Mega caps feels like waiting for Godot Amazon stock fell more than two bucks today Google lost 83 cents they are lost in the high expense ether until they tell us otherwise of course there's been nothing but free fall for the enterprise software and cyber security tax this year so it's nice to see them get some occasional lift but other than Palo Alto networks I'm not seeing the slimming down or pivoting to profitability that might give these recent moves staying power oh and shh did anyone notice that Nvidia stock may actually be bottoming I saw a cup and handle there that's a technical positive only Charters care about these days everyone's a closet charge when it comes to the Hideous action intact ND lifted two the big difference is that AMD sells it 20 times earnings not more than 40 times earnings like Nvidia then again if there's a thought relations between us and China a lot of Whispers out of that from Davos then Nvidia would be the semi-inductor stock that might see the biggest pop it suffered mightily when our government put the wood to China maybe it can recover an eight-point rally almost five percent today sure helps get it there now look I know it wasn't just Goldman that brought down the Dow and the s p today we saw some heavy selling in companies that need a strong economy possibly suggesting that the recent running the citgoals might be over I heard that all day given them we did I well we got yet another a weaker macro number today I'm talking about the New York feds Empire State manufacturing this which is very very weak I think it's the pause that refreshes though and I remain more partial to those traditional signal stocks you're getting a chance to buy them ahead of what I believe will be better earnings comparisons than you're going to see from Tech the same way you've got those better comparisons that shock people from the financials on Friday it is so easy to panic out of stocks on the first sign of weakness because you read a lot of headlines says oh boy Market too far too fast look some you know what's the big self about especially when you have the come hither to your treasury at 4.2 percent I'm merging the opposite though I see a minor chord count on Trend rally that might cause the downgrading analyst to wonder if they are too negative and the sideline air is ready to turn positive now that buyers have so-called found a level to buy Tech to me that's a natural expression of support for a part of the market that is playing catch-up the part being the Beaten Down Tech sector bottom line I say let Tech run for now but remember when we get to earnings starting next week for Tech the advances you see now could wipe away wipe away the cheapness factor and if you own and so or insist on owning Tech here you want to be in the ones that are cheaper than the consumer product companies that make pet food or cookies or soft drinks for that matter let's go to Joan California Joe well yeah Jim from Huntington Beach now what's going on my friend hey Jen so my question is about Chevron with Chevron having that special ability to operate in Venezuela as well as them having a huge market share in California are they the oil company to be looking at right now with this oil forecasting integral above Buck 30 up Barrel of the giant oil companies they are Mike worth was on uh Squawk Box this morning and he was magnificent the CEO nice move today in the stock I got to tell you Joe you got to go Mama Chevron buying back a lot of stock and all those things you said are certainly playing into their hands it's been a winner I think it stays the winner but I say let Tech run for now but remember you want to be in the ones that are cheaper than the consumer product companies they're better too well everybody tonight as we approach the three-year anniversary of the covid-19 outbreak while companies are beneficiaries to continue reopening Trends I got some good names on a bunch of them then it was a tale of two financials Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and I'm breaking down exactly what I saw in the reports handed in earlier today and darling ingredients is in the business of converting animal byproducts to fuel so could the stock been under the radar way to energize your portfolio and deparbonize it I'm checking in with the CEO foreign
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