저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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래리 핑크는 2023년이 장기 투자자에게 매우 기회가 많은 해라고 주장한다. 금리 환경 변화: 과거 마이너스 금리 시기에는 연금 등 장기 투자자가 위험을 더 떠안아야 했으나, 현재 2년물 국채 약 4.25%, 하이일드 약 8% 수준으로 채권 매력이 높아졌다고 본다. 채권 대비 주식의 경쟁력이 달라졌다는 주장이다. 포트폴리오 재편: 연금펀드가 채권 비중을 다시 늘리는 리밸런싱이 진행될 것이며, 2018년 무렵 60~70%였던 채권 비중이 유동성 문제로 줄었던 것을 되돌리는 흐름이라고 설명한다. 이는 주식시장에서 자금이 빠지는 것은 아니라고 보았다. 주식 관련: 금리가 0 근처일 때는 고성장주 매수가 쉬웠으나 금리가 5%대일 때는 성장 프리미엄 지불이 부담이 되어 2022년에 밸류에이션(PER) 재조정이 있었다고 평가한다. 배당주 비중 확대 가능성과 인프라 투자 기회도 언급했다. 회사 실적: 블랙록은 2022년 순유입 4,000억 달러(이 중 미국 2,300억 달러)를 기록했고 최근 수년간 약 1.7조 달러를 모았다고 밝혔다. 좋은 시장과 나쁜 시장 모두에서 자금을 유치하는 점을 강조했다. 전망 요약: 2022년은 채권과 주식이 모두 하락한 악몽 같은 해였지만, 지금 시점에서는 더 낮은 위험으로 목표 수익률에 도달할 기회가 더 많다는 입장이다. 단기 시장 방향(지수·종목 가격)에 대한 구체적 예측은 없었다.
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particularly here on Squawk on the street thank you for joining us this morning um well Happy New Year David and Jim thank you and to you uh you know speaking of the new year I was looking at your uh your sort of memo to colleagues where you talk about the current operating environment being unlike anything we've seen in decades you talk about 2022 being a year of huge transition how do you see this year shaping up Larry more of the same or you know are your expectations perhaps a bit different than what we've seen last year well from the perspective of long-term investors I see 2023 to be enormously opportunistic actually maybe the hardest years for investing for the long term where the last few years because of negative interest rates uh investors worldwide had to take on more and more risk to achieve their liabilities actually now having uh you know two-year treasury is going to be close you know at uh at four and a quarter uh credits at five high yield at eight percent we're going to see a whole restructuring and a rebalancing of how portfolios were constructed just a few years ago and you're going to see now once again more Bond investing within the con within the confines of pension fund investing in that in 20 years ago most Pension funds had 60 70 percent in bonds because they were able to retrieve their their role and their goals that they were trying to achieve by 2018 they could not own bonds they had to put on more and more illiquidity and so in reality we're going to be seeing more and more opportunities of the of rebalancing back into bonds and as you talk about a lot about growth Equity when interest rates are near zero you could you have the ability to buy high growth stock uh because you're not losing any money when if short rates go up to five percent you're paying a big premium for that type of perceived growth and that's a recalibration what that we saw in 2022 and now we're living in an area where you're going to be able to invest differently in addition we are seeing more and more investors looking at infrastructure where you're going to have a combination of some illiquidity but you're gonna have high coupon I think this is going to be a period of time with more dividend stocks again as a play so I look at this as more opportunistic and probably the most important thing of our announcement today in terms of earnings has been uh BlackRock is winning more share a wallet than any firm in the world in good markets when markets are going down or in banned markets or good markets when markets are going up and bad markets are going down yeah uh and this past year we had 400 billion dollars of net inflows and long-term assets of which 230 billion came from the United States and so we have now raised you know raised about a 1.7 trillion dollars over the last few years uh from from investors awarding Us in good times and bad times because of the guidance we're giving and also our performance and our fiduciary standard uh understood and you know last year though was distinguished by the fact that whether you own bonds or stocks you had a bad year you know you seem to be saying I I don't want to read into it too much but tell me you know are you expecting bonds to sort of become a better performer during the course of this year which would seem in some ways to say well maybe there won't be as much buying behind equities for the year well I mean we still see one or two more tightings uh we see a obviously a very inverted yield curve for the so the market is saying I'll buy I'll buy coupon here I'll I'll buy it uh uh but what I'm what I'm saying is we are going to see more and more of long-term Pension funds reallocating back the bonds more into bonds as they receive new pension contributions we're going to see more of that uh that that doesn't take away from the equity Market but I do believe you're going to see as we're witnessed in 22.
we saw a whole recalibration of price earnings ratios right especially in growth Larry Larry to your point I mean the bond market is now actually competitive with the equity Market as you said in 18. it was like I can't get a return anywhere this is a very different world now in 2023 it is a totally different world and it's actually an easier world to take you're going to take less risk to get to your target now more than ever before so I would frame it you know obviously we have the nightmare at 22 with both Bond and Equity markets down but if you start today and look at the opportunity today you actually have more opportunity going forward to invest with less risk and reaching your target returns that you're looking for for the long term
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