저자: HueFinNews2진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리는 S&P500 급락(1860pt, 약 52% 하락)을 경고하지만, 진행자는 가격 차트로 검증하겠다며 현재 하락 추세를 인정하고 1860 부근 지지선 테스트를 기다리는 입장이다. 버리의 핵심 주장: 연준의 금리 인상이 지속되어 인플레이션 억제 과정에서 경기 침체가 올 것이며, 최악은 아직 오지 않았다. 버리가 제시한 근거: 미국 가계부채가 6월 한 달에만 402억 달러 증가해 2번째로 큰 증가폭을 기록했다(연준 데이터). 팬데믹 때 풀린 재정지원(스티뮬러스 체크, PPP 대출)이 끊기면서 소비자들이 신용카드·대출로 소비를 이어가고 있다는 점이 위험 신호다. 버리의 시장 근거: 2022년 5월 발표 당시 S&P500 목표치 1862pt(약 52% 하락 의미). 2017년 이후 S&P500 차트를 보면 현재가 급락의 시작이라고 주장했고, 전체 자산군이 과열되었다고 지적(밈주식 AMC·게임스톱, 도지코인·시바이누 등 투기). 버리의 포지션: 미국 주식 포트폴리오를 전량 청산하고 현금 보유(한 종목만 예외). 최근 트윗에서 'Big Short' 성공을 회고하며 크래시 가능성을 재차 강조. 진행자의 해석: 버리의 '하락 시작' 주장에 대해 차트상 2014~2016년 1800pt 부근이 세 차례 지지받았다는 점을 근거로 1860 수준이 지지선이 될 수 있다고 봄. 다만 급락 전 소폭 반등(릴리프 랠리) 후 재하락하는 흐름을 예상하며, 지지선을 테스트할 때까지 기다리는 시나리오를 제시. 진행자의 조언: 공포에 휩쓸리지 말고 차트로 검증하며 대응하라. S&P500, 다우, 나스닥 3개 지수에 대해 하락 포지션을 이미 잡았다고 밝히고, 수익성 유지를 강조. 리스크: 연준의 금리 인상 지속 여부, 재정지원 중단으로 인한 소비 둔화, 부채 상환 능력 저하가 주요 하락 요인. 반대로 지지선에서 매수세가 들어오면 반등 가능성도 존재. 출연자 전망: 버리는 S&P500 1860pt 하락 및 장기 시장 붕괴 전망, 진행자는 단기 반등 후 재하락 및 1860 지지 테스트 전망.
다듬은 글
hey what's going on everyone i am back today is september the 3rd 2022 we're going to talk about michael berry today the big short he's coming out with some more supposedly dire predictions about the stock market the economy you know the yada yada that you hear so much right now that is running the news that is running the gambit across so many social media platforms i am here to assist and help you all out as to how we should be really thinking all right so if it's going to occur if the economy is going to crash if we're going to hit a recession the best thing that we can do is get prepared and work our way through this situation without all of the sensationalism without all of the fear and the buzzwords that so many people try to get us harped on to get us to click welcome to my channel this is hfn also known as uv news i conduct and i produce price predictions because i want us to see and how we should think as we endure these uncertainties you guys want to join me hit that like button share and also subscribe here to my channel now check this out this is the article right here from the street it was posted on september 1st 2022 with the title michael big short brewery makes another dire prediction okay we got it we appreciate everyone's opinion and how they view the markets because we take all of that into consideration but if you guys been an avid follower of mines and the subscriber of this particular channel you know that we certify what people say with the price with the price chart if michael bury and many other proponents are looking for a crash then guess what it's going to be revealed on the price chart we're going to show you all that at the end of this video now let's go through this article real quick i went through and highlighted a couple of things you guys can see that the investor talking about michael bury he recently liquidated his entire portfolio of u.s stocks he sold out like the dude said look i'm getting out of all of my positions and i'm holding cash except for one stock just one now he is saying that the worst of the economy is yet to come as jerome powell reiterated on august 26th that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates aggressively to fight inflation prices are going up astronomically right and in order for them to bring down prices they got to raise interest rates now there's a lot of debt flowing around the world an extreme amount of united states dollar debt and there's not there's not too many way out too many ways out of this situation now he pointed out michael berry pointed out potential red flags for the economy like this is one of them this is a red flag that michael is trying to tell us like a household debt crisis that pose serious danger too many household hold too much debt with presumably no way to pay it down think about this he indicates that a crash is coming right now this is the household debt one of the red flags that he's mentioning the u.s consumer borrowing increase by let's look at this 40.2 billion dollars in june from the prior month so it double well i can't say it double but it increased from may to june in 30 days 40.2 billion dollars that's how much the consumers have borrowed borrowed meaning that they have to pay it back this was the second biggest increase ever according to data from the federal reserve remember the savings glut problem no more because the helicopter cash taught people to spend again and it's very addictive winter coming berry added see during the pandemic there was a whole lot of cash a whole lot of dollar denominated money created right you had stimulus checks you had pvp loans and trillions of dollars created from the government of the united states that money has to be paid back and people during that time were still consuming they were still buying the things that they need and in some cases some people bought things that they did not need but now since that spigot has dried out no more ppp loans no more stimulus checks now people are borrowing from credit lines credit cards taking out other loans because they still have that addictive spending mentality is what barry's trying to tell us that's going to come and rear his ugly head because if the government is not going to give their citizens no more helicopter cash just throw money out and give people money so that they can continue to spend so that the economy can continually churn it's going to come to a screeching halt this is what barry is trying to prepare us for because the united states cannot continually print money so now let's go down a little bit further and yet he tweeted this out michael burr you guys can see that the tweet is right here and yet i keep getting asked when it crashed very tweeted on august 31st with a bloomberg chart showing the movements of s p 500 since 2017.
now you look at the chart for yourself when the crash why would people continue to ask you that question when you can clearly see that beginning of the year is when the crash start is what he's trying to tell us he's giving us an example all the way until right here to where let me see if i can zoom this in so all the way right here when the pandemic started that was a crash government infused the economy with trillions of dollars in debt market went up now we're coming back down again we're in another crash is what barry is trying to insinuate now just like the government created money out of nowhere here they will have to do that again in order to allow this market the economy to continue to trend higher okay then we have to do that and until we see that occur until we see the feds stop raising interest rates until we see the feds stop tightening on the um debt that they were taking in and until the stimulus checks come back we will continue to see the market in my opinion go down now that's not to scare us it's for us to be prepared because there will always be monetary opportunities for us to make profit understand that this is not the opportunity to be fearful or scared this is an opportunity for us to get prepared and be on the continually winning side we got to follow the money all right so check this out in may the investor predicted that the s p 500 could fall to 1 862 points over the following few years based on the crashes of past years okay at last check the index was around 39 100 points from there his call would be a drop of 52 percent fall 52 okay the cause of his pessimism is that the greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things has been created since the summer of 2021.
speculative bubble of all time in all things he's trying to tell us that every asset class is massively overplayed that's particularly because small investors went heavily into the meme stocks namely amc gamestop they took those stimulus checks and put it on stocks and cryptocurrencies like dozecoin and shimi inu pretending the mother of all crashes now some of his tweets that very has put on twitter has garnered a whole lot of comments on social media you guys can see it right here now some people pointed out that the year has been very bad for the stock market while others were convinced that it crashed was imminent okay there is no reason for a market crash that hasn't been priced in this is what somebody tweeted in regards to timmy barron okay there is no reason for a market crash that hasn't been priced in this has already been the worst year for the market ever unless there is some catalyst market crash event he is just staying i guess he's just trying to say saying this is why twitter needs that edit button he is just saying what every ta guru is saying by simply copying the 2008 chart okay so he considered himself a profile name the volatility king here is here this is what somebody else tweeted in regards to bury's tweet is here lol started in january so now what do you think let's not think let's look at what the people are doing and we can tell from the price chart so this is the s p 500 futures index right here okay now you guys can see i've already depicted what i'm looking at into the market in the s p 500 right i'm already there so if we continually see price go down guess what we won't be nervous we won't be scared and michael berry would be correct right i'll give kudos to those individuals who are incorrect in their predictions he's predicting a mother of all crash and he said that what what was that part of the article uh saying that he's looking for the market to run down towards 1860 let's see where we at on the chart here okay now that is monumental look at this we could see the market in the s p 500 he said 1860 okay that is 52 almost 53 now let's zoom out though and let's see why is he saying 1860 why why 1860 right you guys can already see it correct let me show it to you because 1860 has already created itself as being a support area check this out so he's in all cash right he's looking for the market to come down to this particular area here right look at that back here in 2014 the s p 500 index was traded around 1800 points and it held support three times 2014 to september 2015 in august 2016 and february and then the market went completely up now don't expect it just to fall down just like a rock there will be gyrations to where price breaks down you'll see a small relief rally market goes up a couple of days a couple of weeks then it breaks back down something like this right you'll expect something like this okay that's something that you need to expect now if he's looking for 1860 i mean that's very doable right anything's possible within the stock market but we will have to see market break these areas first okay because the market will come in and test all of these areas and i want to show you where they're at so that's the area to be tested this area will be tested this area will be tested for support this area possibly will be tested for support like these will be points to where we can see the market stop going down and begin to go back up for a small spin of time before we continuously run all the way back down right so now that's it we are already in position we are already expecting this thing to play out we're not going to be surprised we're not going to be caught off guard that's why i'm here it's to give you all the perspective as to from what people say and their opinion and try to validate it with the price chart currently michael bird is on point we have seen the market in the s p 500 continually trade below this descending line that's a dead giveaway to tell us how we should be thinking yeah stock that's be 500 week now obviously there's going to be points that we're going to be paying attention to see the market buyers come in that's what we on the lookout for right now you guys can already see one ultimate tp prices in s p 500 that's it you don't have to be scared you don't have to be nervous you just have to certify what you're noticing from other people to see if it gels with the price chart so keep it locked in here because i will do that for my subscribers all right that's it i'm done i'm not going to change my price predictions out for the s p 500 you guys can see i got it for the s p 500 even for the dow and the nasdaq okay so we're already in position looking at the markets on those three indexes make sure you maintain the profitability and give me your thoughts i'll talk to you all later you
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