저자: Fisher Investments · 외국인
다듬은 글
> 주의: 이 텍스트는 독일어 원문이 아닌 영어 자동자막입니다. 아래는 영어 원문을 자연스럽게 다듬은 영어 본문입니다.
손을 흔드는 버릇과 머리 색깔
Why do I wave my hands around so much? Honestly, it's just easier for me. This is who I am. Some people seem to really be bothered by it. If you want to understand what I'm saying, and my waving bothers you, just don't look. Just listen. It's easy. And don't get all that upset. The next one, which is similar, is: do I dye my hair? How can I be as old as I am, a septuagenarian, and not be bald, and not have gray hair? Well, if you're really close to me and you have good eyesight, you can see that I do have some gray hairs. But the fact of the matter is, and I'm just going to say this, we're all different. I got good hair genes from my father. When he was in his 80s, his hair was almost completely black. By the time he died at 96, he still had about two-thirds black hair and only about one-third gray. So I have my own genetic deficiencies, but this is one of the good ones.
은행 대출 비용과 인플레이션
One question I've been getting: I've said that bank lending costs in America are nearly zero. They average about 3 percentage points, regardless of the central bank's interest rate hikes. Where can you find evidence of that? The easiest way is to search online for "average savings account rates in America." That will get you close. As long as banks and credit card companies keep lending, won't inflation continue? And why would it stop under these conditions?
First, I've never said it would stop. In fact, the people at the central banks, I mean, have never said they intend to stop inflation. They intend to bring inflation down to about 2%. Regardless of what they intend to do, what actually ends up happening is what matters. Nobody is talking about stopping inflation, only about slowing its rate.
I'll say this, and I've said it many times before: the rate of increase over the coming months will reflect what input costs to our manufacturing sectors were some months ago, maybe six or seven months, and those costs have been coming down over time. So inflation will irregularly come down ahead, because input costs, through the process of manufacturing and services, lead to output costs. Ongoing lending keeps the economy from getting too bad.
In America, lending growth rates have been very high. They're moderating now and rolling over a little, but they're still high. There are two more things to think about. Overseas, lending rates are lower, still positive but lower. So what really matters is the global rate. And these numbers are not inflation-adjusted, so you have to take inflation out of the total lending number, because what's really important is net lending on top of inflation. On a global basis, that number is running about 3% right now.
What I'm saying is that I don't think what the central banks are doing right now naturally gets you to a permanent 2% or lower inflation rate. But they move you toward a 3% inflation rate, where they are right now, in the not terribly distant future, within 2023. And as they approach that, to pardon the phrase, "close enough for government work," they can't tell whether they're doing their job or not. So I do think inflation will keep falling. I don't think it will stop. But the reality is that net lending growth over the inflation rate on a global basis is what matters, because we live in a global world. Almost any complicated product has parts from all over the world, some of which go back and forth several times before they're assembled into the final thing. Inflation ought to come down, but not every month and not every week. It comes down irregularly, and people have a hard time with that, because prices aren't reversing and going back to where they used to be. That's disinflation, and we don't really do much of that in the Western world.
불장 초기의 섹터 순환
Assuming tech stocks rebound more than others at the beginning of a new bull market, when does it make sense to rotate into other value-oriented sectors and industries? What industries and sectors might those be?
Let me quickly talk about the bounce effect off the bottom of a bear market. In a new bull market, typically the categories of stocks that got hit the hardest bounce the most, for about 8 to 13 months. Not every single stock, but the categories. Sometimes they start off a little faster, sometimes a little slower. You wouldn't find that very surprising. After about three months off the bottom, which is roughly where we are now, given that the market hit its bottom in October, that bounce effect gets stronger and stronger until it more or less peaks and stops. That's the time to expect the categories that got hurt the most, like tech, to bounce back the most. After that, sometimes they continue to lead, but usually they don't. They got hammered the most in the bear market, usually because they did really well in the prior bull market.
Now, to your question about what other categories might do well in that period, leading into the middle of a bull market: you typically get luxury goods continuing to do well. Energy is 50/50. Banks often do well. I'm not necessarily referring to the rest of financial services, but in a rising market, a lot of the rest of financial services do too, because they're linked to capital markets pricing. Then industrials, particularly industrials with a growth orientation, especially those feeding into consumer durable products that cost you a fair amount but you don't really have to buy, versus consumer staples, which are the more defensive ones like food and clothing. That's where you would look, and that's where you should think about being.
But that isn't now. If you like these videos, I'll be back doing more of these grab-bag segments, and I'm sure this question will come up in various ways month after month.
성장주와 가치주의 동시 상승
The final question I got this week: can two different styles, growthy tech or growthy in general and value-oriented sectors, perform well at the same time at the beginning of a bull market?
Now, you know why they give me these cards with this big print. I'm not supposed to do this stuff with my glasses on, and at my age I can't read small print. If they didn't make it this big for me, it's... well, it's the hair, it's the waving hands. Let me see, what does that say?
So, yes. In fact, categories where one typically does the reverse of the other can also do similarly well over a sustained period. There's no rule anywhere that says categories have to be widely divergent in their returns, where one has to beat the market by a lot while the other lags it by a lot. If one leads the market by a lot, the other probably does too, but they can perform very similarly. And this year, I don't expect growth and value to show hugely different returns overall.
Thank you for listening to my grab-bag questions and answers. I hope you'll listen to the next section when we do it again, probably next month. Take care, and subscribe to the Fisher channel.
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