저자: 미상 · 외국인
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AMD 주가가 한 달간 약 25% 하락한 상황을 분석한 영상이다. 실적은 EPS 0.13달러(예상 0.12달러)로 소폭 상회했으나 매출 16.5억 달러(예상 17억 달러)로 하회했고, 다음 분기 가이던스 14.5억 달러도 예상 16억 달러를 밑돌았다. 전년 대비 매출 성장률은 약 4.4%다. 하락 원인으로 GPU 부문의 비트코인·블록체인 채굴 수요 감소와 가이던스 미스를 꼽았다. 반도체 업종 전반의 경기순환주 성격 약화도 매도 압력을 키웠다고 봤다. 기술적으로는 장기 지지선과 100일 이동평균선(약 20달러 부근) 아래에 있으며, 200일 이동평균선이 무너지면 2017년 박스권인 10~15달러 구간으로 내려갈 수 있다고 봤다. 단기적으로 큰 변동성이 나올 것으로 보며, 시장이 약세를 이어가면 하락, 반등하면 상승 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 장기 펀더멘털에는 강한 확신이 없고 인텔·엔비디아 쪽을 선호한다고 밝혔다. 발언자는 12월 21일 만기 26달러 콜과 12달러 풋 옵션을 동시에 매수해 양방향 베팅을 했다고 공개했다. 다만 투자가 아닌 투기적 도박이며 고위험이라고 강조했다. 경고: 이 영상의 옵션 포지션은 발언자 개인의 투기적 베팅이며 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
so MD stock is down around 25% at the time of this recording and this is after a huge tech correction where a lot of tech stocks got hit but AMD in particular got hit even harder than the average now a lot of you guys bought into the stock at around $10 a lot of you guys bought it to the stock around $30 and at the time of recording this video we're sitting right around the middle of that at around $20 per share and what I think is gonna happen very soon is that we're gonna have a pretty massive move in the stock either to the upside or downside let's go through more details on the stock what the reason was for this drop why I think the stock is gonna move either massively to the upside or downside and how I'm playing this hey guys welcome back to the channel if you're new here hit that subscribe button down below and if you're an investor in AMD you let me know in the comment section down below I'm curious to see how many of my viewers are actually AMD investors so AMD did come out and report their quarter 3 earnings on October 24th and results were fairly mixed to say the least we can see here that a PS came in at around 13 cents per share versus 12 cents per share expected so we had a very narrow beat here but revenue was around 1.65 billion versus 1.7 billion expected so we had kind of a narrow loss here but the good thing about this was that we did have around a four point four percent growth in revenue year over year now the big reason for this miss and what helped contribute to this miss was the GPU division which in 2017 had massive amount of growth and that was because of Bitcoin and blockchain do you guys remember 2017 Bitcoin was all the hype everyone was buying these graphic chips so they could go mine Bitcoin and other things like it cerium rippled etc and in 2018 this has kind of been a fad that's died out slowly and as a result there's been less sales with this so AMD is actually one of those companies that actually benefited from this in 2017 but is now getting hit by this in 2018 but now the biggest reason that I think that the stock drop was because of its guidance so ambi came out and gave a guidance around 1.45 billion for the next quarter versus what analysts were expecting at around 1.6 billion for the next quarter so this is again a larger miss and guidance is very important for some of these tech stocks and to have a guidance miss like this it does affect its stock price but there was some good news that came out of this earnings and that was that they did reduce their debt by around 100 million so as we can see here from this chart they have been working on reducing that debt pretty much every single quarter and it's significantly lower than it was say two years ago and this is a good sign for long-term shareholders in the stock in Andy and that's because they are focusing on lowering their debt now when interest rates are rising they're gonna have to pay that debt at higher interest rates so it is important that they lower that debt as soon as possible now as we know for most stocks when they report earnings except for some exceptions which you look at subscriber numbers and stuff there are three things that investors and pretty much anyone who's looking at the stock considers the first is EPS the second is revenue and the third of course is guidance now in this case we actually had a Miss on two of these three which were revenue and guidance and even though we did have a beat on EPS it was a very narrow beat which did not give investors a lot of hope and a lot of positive sentiment moving forward so as a result what happened AMD took a pretty hard hit and after reporting deserting their stock was down somewhere around 13% after hours now the bad news doesn't end there for AMD unfortunately and that is because it is a semiconductor stock and if you've been following the semiconductor industry recently you've noticed that pretty much every single semi stock has been hit even high-fliers previously like micron and Nvidia have been hit massively recently and this is because semiconductors are seen as a more cyclical industry and cyclical type stocks which is why they've kind of peaked in most investors minds and now they're kind of going down lower which AMD is following suit as well now a little cyclical nature of semiconductor stocks they're not directly affect AMD it's more affecting the stocks like micron and Applied Materials MD does get affected because it is a bunch with the stock and it does follow this industry so now we can see that AMD really has two things going against it the first that it had weak earnings and weak guidance and the second is that it has the whole semiconductor industry dropping right now which is also causing a lot of selling pressure other stuff now analysts are so fairly bullish on this as you can see here with over 25 percent upside that they see and if you want to see more about this or read more about this I will leave a link in description below to AMD stock on tipeee ranks but anyways all of this pretty much brings us to today which is where AMD is sitting at around 25% down in one month so looking at the chart today here we can see that AMD is sitting around some long term support and it has a gap to fill that around $200 a 50 cents or so which coincides with the 100 day moving average as well so I expect this to be some pretty decent resistance in the stock because it is below that level right now now looking at the downside of this if we fall below the support which is also the 200-day moving average I expect us to enter the same channel we were back in 2017 which is between around 10 and $15 per share but either way I believe because of this because of all the volatility we've been seeing in the market and how AMD is such a volatile stock we will see a pretty big move in my opinion in AMD either to the upside or downside keep in mind AMD is a momentum stock so once it gets moving usually a lot of investors hop on and it continues that move very strongly until there is some catalyst out there that can break that trick but that being said if the market does continue to be weak now with a lot of these midterm election catalysts and other catalysts coming up then we will see AMD suffer as well in my opinion but on the other hand if the market does a rebound and starts doing sign of strength I think AMD will show even more strength and move even higher than expected so I'm sure you guys are curious how am I playing this stock well it is disclosed the straight to my VAP group last week so if you're interested in joining in a certain seeing all the trades that I make I'll leave a link description as well but either way this is how I'm playing AMD moving forward so pretty much we're done is I've opened up two positions the first is a call position the second is a put position they're both expiring in December 2018 December 21st to be specific and I picked up the $26 call strike and I picked up the $12 foot strike now the reason that I'm playing this with calls and puts as opposed to shares is because I'm not really bullish on am deeper long-term fundamentally I'm not really a strong believer in this company I'm more of an Intel and NVIDIA investor so I don't want to be stuck holding this company long-term which shares I'm also expecting a big move in the near term future and if I hold it doesn't really benefit me if the stock moves down so by holding options with both calls and puts I am kind of playing both sides of this my logic here is that since I do believe that there's gonna be a big move no matter if we move higher or lower with these calls and puts I will make money either way in my opinion as long as the stock doesn't continue just moving sideways if it does that then I will lose out on this position so this is kind of a riskier trade and I would be looking to play this up with something like vertical spreads typically so there is lower risk but since these options are fairly cheap I figured I might as well go in and kind of play it in a way that gives me quite a bit of upside but keep in mind this is pretty much a speculative play for me I don't want you guys to follow this play because it is something that I'm just speculating on this is not an investment this is kind of like a gamble if you want to call it because it is options and I am kind of making a bet on the stock moving big in the next few weeks so if you are looking to make a similar play just keep in mind this is a very high-risk play in my opinion so whether you got into AMD at around $10 and you're up a hundred percent on your position all you got into AMD at around 30 something dollars and you're down around 50 percent of your position I hope that this video gave you a bit more insight as to why the stock has been going down last month or so so after watching this video if you still believe in the fundamentals of AMD then this may be a perfect gift perfect opportunity to load up on some more shares at a correction in the stock but if you are more of a fundamental value investor I know that AMD is definitely not on that list so maybe this just brings the stock a little bit closer to a potential for you adding more shares at a later date but either way whether you're a fan of the stock or not let me know in the comment section down below if you are AMD shareholder and also let me know what your prediction is for AMD to end the year off in 2018 I'm kind of curious to see what the general sentiment is around the stock with my viewers either way guys hope you enjoyed this video drop a huge like if you did don't forget to subscribe and don't forget to invest positive
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