저자: WarrenBuffett/CharlieMunger · 외국인
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버핏과 멍거가 금융사 CEO는 최고위험책임자를 겸해야 하며 리스크를 위임하면 안 된다고 강조. VaR와 정규분포 기반 리스크 모델을 비판하고, 비즈니스스쿨의 투자 교육(포트폴리오 이론, 옵션가격결정)이 쓸모없다고 지적. 투자의 핵심은 기업가치 평가와 시장 사고법이라고 주장. 중국 투자 및 자문에 대해서는 자문 효용이 낮다는 입장. 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Mr Buffett you have stated that you believe the CEO of any large Financial organization must be the chief risk officer as well yeah the I do believe that the uh CEO of any large uh particularly Financial related company it should really should apply beyond that but certainly with a financially related company should be the chief risk officer it's not something to be delegated in fact Charlie and I have seen that function delegated at very major institutions and uh the risk committee would come in and Report every week every month and they'd report to the directors and they'd have a lot of nice figures lined up and be able to talk in terms of how many sigas were involved and everything and the place was just ripe for for uh for real trouble so uh uh I do I am the chief risk officer at at Berkshire it's up to me to understand anything uh that could really hit us in any catastrophic way Not only was it this risk decision frequently delegated in America but it was delegated to people who were using a very silly way of judging risk that they'd been taught in some of our leading Business Schools so this a very serious problem this man is raising the so-called value at risk and the theories that outcomes in financial markets followed the gaussian curve invariably it was one of the dumbest ideas ever put forward he's not kidding either we've seen an action and the interesting thing is we've seen an action with people that know better that have very high IQs that studied lots of mathematics but it's so much easier to work with that curve because everybody knows the properties of that curve uh and and can make calculations to eight decimal places uh using that curve but the the only probability is that curve is not applicable to behavior in markets and uh and people find that out periodically uh and S Sandy goddman created one of my favorite risk control examples one day he fired a an associate and the man said how can you be firing me when I'm such an important producer and Sandy said yes he says but I'm a rich old man and you make me nervous yeah we do not have anybody around Berkshire makes us nervous in the past you have made a few investments in China Petrina in byd to name too given the growing importance of China in the world what advice would you give the new Chinese leadership and corporate CEOs such that you would make more investments in China sisia well Charlie's made the most recent investment in China so I'll let him handle that one yeah I we're not spending much time giving advice to China that's not that's not because they're not hungry for Our advice but if you stop to think about it China's been doing very very well from a very tough start to some extent we ought to seek advice there instead of giv and we have I would say that we found it almost useless in 60 years of investing to give advice to anybody in businesses we have found that we have a lot of control it's kind of like controlling Affairs by pushing on a noodle it's amazing how little influence we've had when we've had 20% of the stock and people have this illusion of fast control at headquarters the the beauty of birkshire is that we created a system that doesn't require much control at headquarters we if you look at our four largest Investments uh which are worth we'll say um they're certainly worth $50 billion dollar today we've had some of them for 25 years uh one of them and another one for 20 years uh the number of times that we have talked unless we were on the board which was at Coca-Cola but the number of times we've talked to the CEO companies where we have $50 billion I would say does not doesn't average more than twice a year and and we are not in the business of of giving them advice if we thought that the success of our investment depended upon them following Our advice we'd go on to something else in recent years Business Schools have taken a lot of uh blame for uh some of the the recent uh state of the economy what would you suggest to change the way that Business Leaders are trained in our country well I I I wouldn't I don't know Charlie I wouldn't I wouldn't blame Business Schools particularly were most of the ills would you I think they've taught the students a lot of nonsense about Investments but but I don't think that's been the cause of great societal problems what do you think uh no but it was a considerable sin well you want to elaborate on what was the more most no no I think business school education's improving is the implication from a low base or yes I'd agree with that no in investing I would say that uh probably the uh the silliest stuff that we've seen taught at Major Business Schools probably has been maybe it's because it's the area that we operate in but has been in the investment area I mean it is it is astounding to me uh how uh the schools have focused on sort of one fat after another in in uh uh Finance Theory and it's usually been very mathematically based uh when it when it's become very popular it's almost impossible to resist if you're if you if you to make progress in in in in in faculty advancement uh going against the uh revealed wisdom of your elders uh can be very dangerous to your career path at U at Major Business Schools and and you know really investing is not that complicated I would have you know a couple of courses I would have a course on how to value a business and I would have a course on how to think about markets and I think if people grasp uh the basic principles in those two courses that they would be far better off than if they were exposed to a lot of things like modern portfolio Theory or or option pricing I who needs option pricing you know to be in an investment business and that uh you know when when uh when people you know when Ray Croc started McDonald's I mean he was not thinking about the op value of what the McDonald's stock might be or something he was thinking about whether people would buy hamburgers you know and what would cause them to come in and how to make those fries different than other people's and that sort of thing it it it's totally drifted away uh the teaching of Investments I look at I look at the books that are used sometimes and and there's really nothing in there about about valuing businesses it uh uh and that's what investing is all about if you buy businesses for less than they're worth you're going to make money and uh and if you know the difference between the businesses that you can value and the ones that you can't value you know which is key you're going to make money but but uh they've tried to make it a lot more difficult and of course that's what the high priests in any in any particular Arena do they have to convince the the Ley that that the priest have to be listened to Charlie we the Folly creeps into the accounting too a very long-term option on a big business you understand the stock of a big business that you understand or even the stock market index should not be the optimal way to price it is not by using black shs and yet the accounting profession does that they want some kind of a standardized solution that requires them not to think too hard and and they have one is there anybody we've forgotten to offend if the you'll send a note up and it's a very simple question how you feeling I feel terrific and uh I I always feel terrific incidentally that's is not news I uh I love what I do I work with people I love it's more fun every day and it uh basically uh I seem to have a good immune system you know I mean my diet is such that you know as any fool can plainly see that uh I'm eating properly uh all I can say is it works uh and I have four doctors at least a few of them I think own Burkshire Hathaway but uh not a screen I put everybody through but uh and uh my uh wife and my daughter and I listened to the four of them for an hour and a half about two weeks ago and uh uh they described various Alternatives and none of them or well not the the ones that they recommended uh you know do not involve a day of hospitalization they don't they don't uh require me to take a day off from work the survival uh numbers are way up I read one you know where it's 99 a half% for 10 years so you know maybe I'll get shot by a jealous husband but it it it this is not this is this is a really minor event and Charlie will tell you how minor it is well as a matter of fact I rather resent all this attention and sympathy Warren is getting I probably have more prostate cancer than he does he's bragging I don't I don't know because I don't let them test for it he's not he's not kidding at any rate I want the sympathy my secretary was getting too much attention so I decided I had to throw the spotlight back on myself in all seriousness it it is a non event yeah at um the med center is about 2 minutes from the office and and uh for too mons I'll have to drop over there every afternoon and and it'll take a few minutes and and I may have a little less energy but that mean I do fewer dumb things who knows okay station six good morning uh Warren and Charlie glad you're feeling well uh my name is Ryan Bole and I'm and working for a private Equity Firm in Chicago if you were me and had the chance to start over what areas would you look to get into and do you think that my generation will have the same number of opportunities as yours and if not would you look to focus on Emerging Markets oh I think all kinds of opportunities um I would I would probably do very much what I have done in life except I'd do it a little i' Tred and do it a little earlier and I would have tried to be a little bit better when I was running a partnership in terms of aggregating the money faster I used to work with $5,000 uh contributions from partners and uh you know I would try to develop an audited record of performance as early as I could I would try to attract some money and then when I'd build up a fair amount of money out of investing I would I would try to get into something much more interesting uh which would be buying businesses to keep you mentioned private equity which very often is buying businesses to sell but I I don't want to be buying and selling businesses I mean if I if I establish relationships with people that come to me with their business and they want to join Berkshire I want it to be for Keeps and and uh uh that's been enormously satisfying uh but it takes some Capital to get into that business and and I didn't have any Capital when I started out so I built it uh through managing money for myself and other people combined and like I say I would get as through that process as fast as I could and then into the into a game where I could buy businesses of significance and interest uh to me uh and and then I spent the rest of my life doing it just say I've done Charlie well I've got nothing to add to that either and I do it with Charlie incidentally
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