저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 관련 우려로 시장이 조정받고 있으나 기본적 펀더멘털은 유지되며, 지금은 반등 전 매수 기회라는 주장. 메모리·반도체·클라우드·기술주·암호화폐 매수 유망 언급. 금리 상승과 Coreweave 등 고위험 AI 인프라 기업의 신용 우려가 제기되나, 수요는 여전히 강하고 S&P500 실적 성장률(25~26%)이 기대를 상회해 온 점을 근거로 듦. 엔비디아의 영국 AI 보안 연구 2.5억 달러 투자는 규제 대응 및 정책 입지 확보 전략으로 해석됨.
다듬은 글
So, Tom, let's start with you. You know, the market today shows signs of a certain pullback. The VIX index also rose significantly. What do you think about the market as we see it today? Well, thank you for inviting me. You know, the market has kind of overcome the "wall of fear." This week, concerns about AI have intensified.
And I think, since today is Friday, there is concern that due to the increase in military tensions, the conflict could escalate over the weekend. So it doesn't surprise me that the markets are pulling back today. But I think before the audience decides that this is the beginning of a bigger decline.
I mean, the markets are at support levels. Our technical strategist, Mark Newton, believes we can actually grow. We will reach the bottom either today or Monday. And I think , from a fundamental perspective, as much as we respect the idea that AI markets may not be as confident, the fundamental story and the driving forces of AI remain the same.
So to me, when fundamentals hold and markets are gripped by fear, it's a pretty good risk-reward situation for investors. So Tom, would you buy on this pullback everywhere, are there certain sectors that you think are reaching a technical level that makes them attractive for a rebound? I believe it's worth buying memory, semiconductors, next-generation cloud technologies, the tech sector in general, and cryptocurrencies.
I think they all rolled back to support levels at a time when people may have become very fearful about fundamentals. But as you know, if the foundation remains strong, it is a compressed spring. Dani, what do you think about what's happening with the cloud technology issue right now? Do you feel like the market is punishing them unfairly, or do you think this could be a "red flag " and that's why it's been such a focus of attention this week?
The problem with the " danger signal" argument, Leslie, is how many such signals have we " buried" in the last 3 years? As everyone seized on every new sign of weakness, so to speak, as proof that the “bull” market was about to end, only to see the broader market, both tech and otherwise, continue to make new highs .
So, I don't think I see anything more in what's happening now than in any other news headlines. I think the problem is that interest rates have gone up, and because everyone is already concerned about the scale of AI development and whether it's getting ahead of itself , everyone is starting to question some of the riskier aspects of this development.
Both Coreweave and non-cloud services are on the riskier end of the spectrum. And even in that context, what's happening with Coreweave is they're not getting rid of the secured debt, they're not getting rid of the unsecured debt, which is the riskier part of the risky AI projects. So I think there's a problem here where people are trying to sell something against the backdrop of higher rates, but we've heard from ASML, from TSMC, from many other companies that the overall demand environment remains pretty stable.
And I would like to hear from Coreweave itself that there are some problems in their business before drawing any global conclusions from what is happening now. But, Dan, demand is one thing, and capital is another. And so far, we're seeing capital chasing demand, and I wonder: Will these two elements diverge a little more as interest rates rise and the focus on the credit situation increases?
Yes, so I make two arguments. First : the stakes are higher, that's for sure, that's obvious. And the question is , do I want to believe that everyone in the development chain is able to finance themselves indefinitely at higher rates? And the answer to that is probably no. I don't know if this is a tipping point or if it will be another 25 or 50 basis points increase.
But as the stakes rise, the more speculative “ tails,” so to speak, of this development process will be called into question. And now it's Coreweave. My argument about demand is about the broader market. For investors who don't have long positions in Nebius or CoreWeave and don't have leverage tied to the broader AI development, I don't think it's possible to interpret what's happening now in a broader context—neither for the tech sector as a whole, although the sell-off is obvious, nor for the market as a whole.
I'm just saying that the stakes are higher, the riskier parts of the spectrum are suffering, and right now it's the cloud services. Yes. Ed, what do you think? Is there a capital problem now ? And how big of a problem is this for the broader market? I mean, the cost of financing is going up for a lot of these companies.
IPOs are becoming more difficult, with many data center companies postponing them . You also don't see the same activity in raising equity capital. So, you know, we talked earlier about how permitting is the biggest barrier to capital spending in AI development. It seems that capital is moving up the priority list as a factor hindering this development, which, you know, is what a large part of the economy is based on.
So, capital has a price, and the market is trying to understand it right now. And it is quite possible that we will see some slowdown in the pace of development. But demand is still very high. We'll have to see what the next reporting season holds. So we'll have to wait a few weeks to get a really good answer.
I think that's partly why the market is falling today—because of uncertainty. And so we have to wait until we get them. The last few reporting seasons have really saved the day, as the figures have been very strong and the results have exceeded expectations. I mean, last reporting season, expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth were at 25%, and it came out at 32%.
And here we are again seeing the expected 25-26% profit growth in the third quarter. Let's see if they can exceed these figures. So we'll just have to be a little patient. The market is usually weak in September. We saw this in small- cap companies. We haven't seen this with large companies. So maybe this is some catch-up on what we would normally have seen last month.
Here is the main headline that stands out today . Nvidia is allocating $250 million to agent-based AI security research in the UK. At first glance, this is a strange story for a chip company. Nvidia sells hardware. Why is it funding security research? Barron's presented this as Nvidia splashing out money, bringing AI safety issues to a global level.
This wording is important. This is not a one-time donation. This looks like a strategy. Here's what it really means. Nvidia has spent months building relationships with governments. Jensen pressed G20 ministers on AI infrastructure. Egypt is building a data center based on Nvidia technology. Chips became diplomatic currency.
But governments need more than just chips . They need reassurance. Regulators are concerned about AI systems operating independently. And agent-based AI is exactly such a phenomenon. If you're a company providing the computing power for all of this, you want to be part of the solution, not the risk.
You see the logic. $250 million is a small amount compared to other Nvidia moves, such as the $ 3.5 billion investment in MediaTek or the $ 14 billion deal with Hugging Face. This is cheap insurance. It buys favor with UK politicians , makes Nvidia a credible voice in security discussions, and reduces the chances that regulation will become hostile to the development of computing power.
It also quietly confirms the idea that agent-based AI is coming, and the constant work of agents means more demand for inference and more chips. And now for an easier topic. Nvidia's new DLSS frame generation mode promises more FPS, especially for budget cards and atmospheric games. It's a reminder that consumer businesses still matter.
Software that squeezes more performance out of cheaper GPUs keeps gamers in the Nvidia ecosystem. Put it all together and you see the same pattern. Nvidia is spending money to defend its position on all fronts: with governments, regulators, and consumers. The open question is whether this is enough.
Security funding only gains credibility when it is perceived as sincere. If critics see this as lobbying disguised as research, it could backfire. And a check for $250 million doesn't change the more serious risks: antitrust oversight, problems with circular financing, and proprietary chip development.
The stock will tell us whether investors perceive this as a smart positioning or just another waste of money.
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