저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 비트코인이 결국 화폐가 되기는 어렵고 금·은이 역사적으로 더 나은 대안이라는 입장이다. 국가 부채·재정 정책: 미국 등 주요국이 엄청난 규모로 돈을 찍어내고 있으며, 역사상 이런 사례는 없었고 항상 문제로 이어졌다는 우려를 표명했다. 지금의 노년층은 비용을 치르지 않지만 젊은 세대(자녀)가 거대한 문제를 물려받게 된다고 진단했다. 비트코인 전망: 비트코인이 사실상 통화가 될 가능성에 회의적이다. 암호화폐가 2,000개 이상으로 늘어난 상황에서 정부는 독점적 지위를 잃기 싫어 비트코인을 금지하거나 자체 디지털화폐를 만들 것이라 본다. 중국처럼 디지털 화폐가 이미 도입되고 있으며, 정부가 시민에게 민간 코인 사용을 허락할 리 없다고 주장했다. 비트코인은 훌륭한 트레이딩 수단일 수 있으나 화폐는 아니라고 평가했다. 정부 규제·개입이 비트코인의 가장 큰 위협이라는 취지다. 금·은 전망: 역사적으로 위기 시 사람들은 금과 은을 찾았고, 정부와 무관하게 국제적으로 인정받고 운반이 쉬운 자산이 살아남았다고 설명했다. 본인은 은과 금을 보유 중이며 현재는 매수하지 않고 지켜보고 있지만, 가격이 내려가면 더 살 생각이라고 밝혔다. 금과 은은 달러·엔 같은 법정화폐와 경쟁하지 않아 장기적으로 더 나은 미래가 있을 것으로 봤다. 파월 연준 의장 발언 인용 및 반박: 파월이 비트코인을 금과 같은 투기 자산으로 본다고 한 데 대해, 로저스는 비트코인과 금을 같은 범주에 넣는 것은 불쾌하다고 반응했다. 다만 사람들이 트레이딩 수단으로 쓰는 것은 사실이라고 인정했다. 리스크: 비트코인은 정부 규제, 개입, 독점 욕구에 따른 금지 가능성이 핵심 리스크이며, 과거 사라진 암호화폐가 많다는 점도 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 비트코인이 화폐로 자리잡기 어렵고, 금·은은 위기 시 가치를 보존할 것이라는 입장이 일관되게 나타났다.
다듬은 글
world history does show us that this always leads to problems down the road michelle this is a good time to be old because the old people aren't going to have to pay for all of this it's a bad time to be young i've had two young daughters they're inheriting gigantic gigantic problems the likes of which the world has never seen this is not going to be fun for somebody history is very clear about that and i go down to the shop and buy bread with bitcoin either right now but history would indicate that silver and gold probably have a better future because they're not trying to compete with the dollar or the yen or something else something like that it's very power hungry they want to control everything they want a monopoly they do not want to let other people compete with money but my view about what many of the bulls say is it's going to replace money you can't take a tax in china with money you cannot buy ice cream in china this month when the money is on the computer i cannot imagine the us government is going to say okay guys this is money but if you want to use bitcoin go ahead go ahead and compete with us i recall that you told me that one of your guiding principles is that the main lesson of history is that people don't learn the lessons of history so jim how do you apply that wise adage to where we are in the current state of the us economy well that's a very good insightful question good well done um as you know the u.s and other countries are spending gigantic amounts of money and printing giant gigantic amounts of money nothing like this ever happened in world history world history does show us that this always leads to problems down the road michelle this is a good time to be old because the old people aren't going to have to pay for all of this it's a bad time to be young i've had two young daughters they're inheriting gigantic gigantic problems the likes of which the world has never seen this is not going to be fun for somebody history is very clear about that bitcoin might be fixed and we're not really sure but we think if they say it is but even if it is they're going to be lots of other cryptocurrencies daniela they're already over 2 000 crypto currencies up from none nine years ago so they're plenty of cryptocurrencies so do you think it's a smart move for people to sell their bitcoin and buy gold here i'm not but i don't i've never bought a bitcoin so you know i wish i had everybody wishes they had uh i'm not selling any of my gold i'm not buying gold i'm sitting and watching i'm still waiting for gold to go down so i can buy more i've never bought or sold any cryptocurrencies obviously i wish i had i mean what's crypto bitcoins worth sixty thousand dollars or something today i wish i'd bought something i would wish i'd bought anything which i bought ibm in 1914 etc etc uh i doubt it because historically if if bitcoin book of cryptocurrencies become successful most governments will outlaw it because they don't want to lose their monopoly every government in the world is working on computer money now including the us the chinese are there already and i cannot imagine that governments are going to say okay this is our crypto money or you can use their crypto money that's not the way governments work historically money is going to be on the computer it already is in china in china you can't take a taxi with money you got to have the money on your phone you can't buy ice cream so it's happening but i doubt if it's going to be yeah it's somebody else's money history shows it will be government so you would argue then that the the biggest threat to bitcoin which is now at over 63 000 is government regulation or government intervention yes if it becomes successful michelle as long as it's a trading vehicle and i know guys are making lots of money trading it it's a wonderful trading vehicle apparently but if it becomes a currency which is what the crypto people say they are and they will be i cannot imagine that any government or many governments in the world will say okay you could use our money or their money that's not what history shows what do you predict well history shows that uh you know silver gold uh people i'm a peasant michelle all of us peasants know that when something goes wrong we want some silver in the closet we want some gold under the bed politicians say i forget gold it's meaningless bureaucrats say well i'm an old peasant and all of us old peasants know okay fine but just in case i'm going to have some silver under the bed maybe it'll be something else but so far history shows you better have something sound and useful the definition is internationally recognizable easily transportable that the world will accept all right well we do have of course uh central banks starting to pay attention to cryptocurrencies and bitcoin and digital currencies around the world to your point and powell is actually putting bitcoin and gold in the same camp let's take a listen to what he had to say about that we think of them more as crypto assets because crypto what people call cryptocurrencies they're really vehicles for speculation no one is using them for payments for example like the dollar what they're using them for is to speculate it's like it's a little bit like gold for you know for thousands of years human beings have have given gold this special value that it doesn't have from an industrial standpoint but nonetheless for thousands of years they've done that so bitcoin is much more like that and the cryptocurrencies are much more like that they're not they're not really being uh actively used as payments do you agree with that is it like a gold well it's certainly it's just an offense to your sensibilities to put bitcoin and gold in the same camp no of course not uh anything that the world wants to use is fine with me but he said the same thing i do the people are using it as good trading vehicles which is exactly what it is so far if it becomes a currency then something else will change no there's no question that what he said about it's like i mean you cannot go down to the shop and buy bread with gold right now you cannot go down to the shop and buy bread with bitcoin either right now but history would indicate that silver and gold probably have a better future because they're not trying to compete with the dollar or the yen or something else something like that you know historically well you can increasingly uh use your bitcoin to buy a teslas and uh more and more assets is uh it's becoming uh more mainstream to use that as a form of payment and to receive it as a salary as well if you watch what the government does you will probably become a successful investor because if they start spending a lot of money on something even if they're wrong somebody's going to make a lot of money because the government throws staggering amounts of money into what they think should be done uh now as far as when you say they're going to work i mean i own silver i got some silver right here i got some gold right here and i'm not buying at the moment but i will buy more i have never owned any cryptocurrencies many of them have already disappeared as you know and gone to zero now i wish i i wish i bought the right one or the right five uh but they've been hundreds hundreds which have already disappeared um my listen it's a great trading vehicle for those who are for good traders which i am not i'm the worst trader in the world but my view about what many of the bulls say is it's going to replace money well money is definitely going to be on the computer it already is in china you can't take a tax in china with money you cannot buy ice cream in china with money you only can use computer money already so it's happening it's going even i mean everybody us government is investigating how to put all the money on the computer and it's going to be there but when the money is on the computer i cannot imagine the us government is going to say okay guys this is money but if you want to use bitcoin go ahead go ahead and compete with us i mean come on these that's not the way these guys think they're they're it's very power hungry they want to control everything and they want a monopoly they do not want to let other people compete with money that doesn't mean it cannot be a trading vehicle till the end of time but uh it's not going to be money it might be
Comments 0