저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 가치투자 관점에서 좋은 사업을 싸게 사서 오래 보유하고, 단기 투기보다 장기 복리를 추구해야 한다는 주장. 투자 철학: '가치(value)'는 싸다는 뜻이 아니라 현금흐름과 해자(경쟁우위)가 있는 사업을 뜻한다고 설명. 안전마진을 두고 진입하면 몇 년 뒤 5~10배 성장 가능하다고 봄. 테슬라 사례: 과거 25~30달러에 매수했던 논리와 달리 현재 수익률은 낮지만, 지금 가격에서도 몇 배 상승 가능하다고 언급(목표가 구체 수치 없음). 투자 판단 기준: 투자 대상이 '평등(금융·의료·교육)'이나 '기후변화' 해결에 기여하는지를 1차 필터로 사용. 이후 펀더멘털 분석. 자금 운용: 자산 규모 약 100억 달러 이상으로 언급(부정확 가능). 버진갤럭틱, 클로버헬스, 오픈도어, 소파이 등 보유 언급. 유동성 필요로 버진 주식 수백만 주 매도한 사실 언급. 장기 보유 원칙 강조. 자본 축적 조언: 빠르게 만들어진 사업은 빠르게 무너진다는 견해. 제프 베이조스를 장기 복리 사례로 제시. 연 15% 복리를 50년간 유지하는 것이 목표라고 언급. IRR 같은 단기 수익률 지표에 대한 회의적 시각. 스마트폰·SNS 조언: 짧은 피드백에 익숙한 뇌가 사업 집중력을 해친다고 주장하며 소셜앱 사용 줄이기를 권고. 리스크: 짧은 기간 큰 변동에 흔들리지 않도록 유동성 관리 필요성 언급. 개별 종목 가격 전망은 명시적으로 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
um the thing is that when you look up the word value in the dictionary it doesn't mean cheap it doesn't mean a cigar but with two puffs you know that famous buffett longer grip i think it actually means something that has value and so then i'm really thinking about you know what are the cash flows of this business how does it create a moat right meaning in software some technological way that's hard for people to compete with it and then can i get it for a price where there's a margin of safety where if they miss execute for a quarter or if they have a little hiccup it's gonna be okay because you know we've got an entry point where five or ten years from now this thing will be five to ten times bigger and that's how we think about all these things and if you look at the deals that i've done they kind of map pretty singularly one to one to that framework that is what tesla is powering that is what allows it to be a multi-trillion dollar company so it doesn't have the same return profile as when i bought it at what is it equivalently now 25 or 30 bucks a share well obviously not but can it be multiples higher than where it is today absolutely an investor is not a speculator and it's not a day trader um and i think that a lot of retail a lot of normal people the only way they will close the inequality gap is because they take it up on themselves to learn how to become an investor the government's not going to save them no law is going to save them no you know taxation of the rich is going to save them they can save themselves and you have to learn how to invest which is to put money into the things you care about and then do nothing and learning that second part is super hard and so if you have apps that glorify speculation you're not going to teach the right kind of behavior so of course they should exist i believe in a free market am i a fan of them not particularly i want to understand shamath how you decide what to invest in do you believe and this is a subject that's come up on your podcast your all in podcast do you believe in fundamentals or has been as has been argued a stock can trade wherever regardless of whether it is or isn't hinged you know to the fundamentals of the underlying business well maybe i can just give you an insight into how i process any opportunity sure company random company comes in uh to the top of the funnel immediately i'm making a very quick hopefully it's a decision but maybe sometimes it's a judgment um and i'm asking myself does this fit into my world view or not meaning is it is it in my circle of confidence and i have a very simple way of looking at this is it going to fix something in a quality that i think is important or is it going to fix something in climate change that i think is important those are the only two things i care about inequality in climate change under inequality there's a bunch of stuff financial equality is important health care equality is important education equality is important so it allows me to organize a lot of different opportunities make something more symmetric does it take something that was asymmetric and fixing so that's my first judgment which is qualitative that's why whenever i start my one pager it's always what is the strategy and you can read all of these one pages now and what you'll get away from them is the first lens is equality and or climate change then i start to do the fundamental work and you know this is where i have a real issue with a lot of people who say that they're value investors i think that i'm a value investor one of the things buffett did was effectively hold forever right put his permanent capital to work and almost never sold is that you as well is the money that you have in whether it's virgin galactic or clover health or open door sofi permanent capital that you're never taking out um yes but with an asterisk but you know buffett became a billionaire at 58.
i because of facebook quite honestly got extremely lucky in my early 30s um but this last decade has been training and you know these last few years now i'm really on the field i've got my pads on and i feel like i can play as good as anybody else um but the reality is all of the things i want to do um vastly outweighs the capital that i have you know probably i'm you know running 10 plus billion dollars 10 15 billion i don't know the exact number to be completely honest i should um but i am risk on and i am moving a lot of balls down the field myself and my teeth um and the reality is that those things sometimes consume capital so at the end of last year you know my family office called and said hey uh dummy uh you know you need to put a little bit of money here just to like make sure that we have liquidity and we can keep doing all these things and so i had to sell you know a couple million shares of virtue um i didn't want to uh i haven't sold a single share of anything uh that i've done uh in this bat platform um in the pipes other than the those few million shares i've lived so if given my brothers eric and if like you know um if i if i couldn't if i could really just go for it uh i wouldn't sell the share of anything i buy because i believe in you but every now and then i run up into liquidity constraints like everybody else and i get a call and they say stop slow down and i say no and then they say okay then at least give me us give us a little buffer here so that we can continue to do all the things i saw some of the venture world at softbank some of the tech world and you said something about amassing capital today what do you think is one of the best ways for us to amass capital on a risk-adjusted basis on a i mean the last part is just such a sellout a risk-adjusted base i don't [ __ ] buy some buns i mean i don't know here's what i would tell you man i think i think if you ask me who's building the most important indelible company in the world i've been very public about this i think it's jeff bezos part of what he realized was the value of slow compounding so here's my little theory about company value creation the faster you build it that is the half-life it will get destroyed in the same amount of time and so when you think about a lot of like social businesses that's played out but and when you see sort of like what the sort of like the top so like you know does it take eight nine ten years to build a really great consumer business it'll take eight nine ten twelve years to destroy it um and we may see the tipping point a couple of these businesses right now we may be seeing it in front of our eyes regulatory otherwise so why is that an important statement amassing capital to me is about finding a smart useful solution to a very hard practical problem and being slow and methodical and again that's what i'm saying you have to rewire your brain for that to be okay how do you in year two or year five come back to this room for your what is it called when they you get reunion um and say i'm still working on the same thing and when somebody says and how's it going you have the courage to say it's hard i haven't figured it out yet i don't know but if you figure it out and you have this moderate growth moderate compounding that is the key that is like that's gold you know i look at like our returns and it's so funny because it's like you can get so enthralled by irrs in our business and like you know i have i have friends who who run other organizations and they're like uh we posted 92 irr and i'm like well you can't eat irr uh what does it really mean and when you unpack it what you realize is like fast money returns can completely really decay long-term thinking and sound judgment and so i'm like wow i would really love to just compound at 15 a year and the reason is because if i can do that for 50 years that's 250 [ __ ] billion dollars like some crazy number like it's just in order so it's like slow and steady against hard problems start by turning off your social apps and giving your brain a break because then you will at least be a little bit more motivated to not be motivated by what everybody else [ __ ] thinks about you do you know what i'm saying it's hard think about how all this stuff plays together how does trying to get you know uh posting your [ __ ] waffles online relate to me starting a business and accumulating capital this is wiring your brain for super fast feedback it's the same brain you're using to build a company don't think they're not the same do you know what i'm saying no yes no yes right you have one brain so you're training your brain here whether you think it or not whether you know it or not whether you acknowledge or not acknowledge that these things where you're spending hours a day are rewiring your psychology and physiology in a way that now you have to use to go and figure out how to be productive in the commercial world so if you don't change this you are going to get the same behaviors over here change this there's a reason why steve jobs was like anti-social media i am telling you i'm not on these [ __ ] apps i'm not him by any stretch of the imagination but i am proactively trying to rewire my brain chemistry to not be short-term focused i'm telling you they're linked
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