저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 은행 위기 속에서 비트코인의 장기 상승과 기관 자금 유입을 강하게 낙관하며, 2030년 목표가를 제시했다. 은행위기 진단: 금리가 1년 만에 19배 가까이 오른 것과 예금 이탈이 결합해 실리콘밸리은행 같은 사태가 발생했고, 연준의 백스톱은 은행 이자비용과 수익성을 악화시킬 것이라고 봤다. 비트코인 근거: 위기 중 비트코인이 주식과 다르게 움직이며 안전자산 역할을 입증했고, 탈중앙·투명·감사 가능한 구조라 중앙 실패 지점이 없다고 주장했다. 지난주 37% 이상 상승, 2.8만 달러 돌파가 근거로 제시됐다. 기관 수요 전망: ARK 보고서 기준 기관의 자산배분 2.5~6.5%가 비트코인에 배정될 수 있다고 봤고, 과거 부동산·신흥국·소형주 사례를 들어 이 흐름이 유입을 촉발한다고 설명했다. 장기 목표가(2030년): 강세 148만 달러, 기본 68.28만 달러, 약세 25.85만 달러. 기관 2~5% 배분이면 10년 내 도달 가능하다고 주장했다. 포트폴리오 전략: 위험회피기에는 집중투자(보유 약 27~28종목), 위험선호기에는 분산 전략을 쓴다고 설명했다. 손실 매도로 생긴 세금손실자산(약 20억 달러 이상)을 향후 이익과 상계할 수 있다고 언급했다. ARK 전략은 5년 투자기간을 전제로 하며 1~3% 소액 배분이 적절하다고 했다. 채권·금리: 작년 채권은 역사상 최악의 해였고 장기듀레이션 자산은 타격을 받았다고 진단했다. ARK 상품도 장기듀레이션 자산이라는 점을 인정했다. 추가 인물: 올리버 린치(비트렉스 CEO)는 기관의 암호화폐 관심이 커지고 있으며 기회는 위기에 열린다고 주장했다.
다듬은 글
one of the things that happens in a crisis is a liquidity dries up so that that tends to hurt assets and the fact that Bitcoin uh moved uh in a very different way from the equity markets in particular uh was quite instructive we do believe that the behavior of the price through this crisis is going to attract more uh institutions for example we've done a report targeting institutional investors and and an allocate the allocation that they should make if they if they care about this new asset class diversifying their portfolios and I believe it's somewhere between two and a half and six and a half percent I mean the ongoing banking crisis in the United States Kathy Wood the Chief Executive Officer of Arc invest has discussed her long-term price prediction for the leading crypto asset in a Tuesday interview with Bloomberg wood discussed the ongoing insolvency crisis in the banking sector the federal reserve's involvement in the entire debacle and the inherent silver lining for Bitcoin investors would spent all of last year warning that the Fed was about to break the economy explained that the fed's plans to backstop the banking crisis are going to cause further pitfalls for earnings and the overall economy however wood believes there is a silver lining to the banking crisis according to the renowned investor Bitcoin has proven to be a truly disruptive technology since the first collapse last week the top crypto asset gained over 37 percent finally smashing 28 thousand dollars on Sunday after a few days of consolidation Bitcoin is again above 28 thousand dollars which with the exception of last week's price movements is its highest price since June 2022 in her interview with Bloomberg wood noted that bitcoin's value proposition is on Full display amid the banking crisis which will attract more institutional investors to the crypto asset would also discuss for firms 1 million to 1.5 million dollar prediction for Bitcoin by 2030.
wouldn't believes that the impending Mass adoption by big money investors will even move to 1 million dollars and above per coin before we listen to Kathy Woods interview and balsy Bitcoin predictions please take a little time to like this video subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications for more videos like this everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm so our videos reach more viewers thanks and enjoy the video well I think uh they're addressing the liquidity issue but not really the solvency issue from our point of view a couple of things have happened here that have never happened really in history and so the banks didn't expect it the first was interest rates up 19 fold in less than a year never happened under volcker which it was twofold 10 to 20 percent and the low base does matter many people dismissed it saying oh Jeff such a low base no expectations were low base so that was the first and we've never seen that magnitude of an earthquake I would say then the second thing that no one expected again because it hasn't happened in such a long time was deposits leaving the system for Silicon Valley Bank it was Venture Capital uh facing a funding drought and so they had to draw down their deposits but then for others who've got money market funds attracting paying much higher than deposits attracting flows so that combination was was Lethal and so now they have the backstop in now what do we have we have the um they're going to be paying up if they if they're depending on the facility they'll pay roughly 4.37 right now as that rate oi ois plus 10 and um and that's much higher than many of them have have been paying for deposits number one while in the case of Silicon Valley Bank their average Health maturity Security on the asset side of their balance sheet was only 1.6 so they're going to see net interest losses uh now instead of having marked Market hit Equity uh the these losses are going to hit earnings before covid as we were descending into that and we are saying now Innovation solves problems and you showed a few charts uh at the beginning that suggest that some of the innovators out there are solving problems I mean I think the most dramatic example of it to us was the behavior of Bitcoin uh last week it absolutely took off it was a flight to safety uh vehicle and so uh it is really proof of concept that Innovation solves problems there are in in Bitcoin fully decentralized fully transparent auditable which is uh addressing all of the banking's problems right now and so a flight to safety a little bit of an insurance policy there's no central point of failure in Bitcoin we know you're a long-term investor with long-term calls but what on Earth gets us to that bull case of almost one and a half million dollars Bitcoin if a bank crisis doesn't one of the things that happens in a crisis is a liquidity dries up so that that tends to hurt assets and the fact that Bitcoin uh moved uh in a very different way from the equity markets in particular uh was quite instructive you'll find the the building blocks of those price Targets in our big Ideas 2023 so Arc Big Ideas 2023 and they are for the base case I would suggest quite conservative we've dialed some of them down since last year I know that corporate treasuries uh pulled away from Bitcoin because because The Regulators were pulling them away from uh from Bitcoin on their balance sheet so we've pulled back there but we do believe that the behavior of the price through this crisis is going to attract more uh institutions for example we've done a report targeting institutional investors and and an allocate the allocation that they should make if they if they care about this new asset class diversifying their portfolios and I believe it's somewhere between two and a half and six and a half percent so not crazy these are the sorts of allocations they would have made to emerging new categories of assets like real estate in the 70s emerging market kids in and small cap in the 80s and 90s according to Arc invest Big Ideas 2023 the firm's long-term predictions for Bitcoin are as follows 1.48 million dollars in the bull case 258 500 in the bear case and 682 800 in the base case all by 2030.
as what explained during the Bloomberg interview with a two to five percent allocation by a significant percentage of institutional investors Bitcoin would have no problem coasting to these figures even before the decade ends what's your bull case prediction for Bitcoin by 2030 please drop your predictions in the comments section below during the interview wood also discussed arc's disruptive innovation investment strategy five-year time Horizon and overall strategy for investors amid the fed's 70-style war against inflation we did see signaling from the FED they did tell us they were going to be hiking rates and hiking right fast why then didn't you move your portfolio around more the the premise of the question is that we're an asset allocator we are not we invest exclusively in disruptive innovation nothing else what we did do was we concentrated our Flagship strategy so ark-k and and our other strategies Ark q a r k w a r k f and we moved in the flagships case from 58 names in February of 21 when we peaked uh down to 27 28 names we have a scoring system and the scoring system is based on variables We Believe are very important to Innovation and so we concentrated the portfolio many people uh in the traditional Asset Management World when they go through a risk-off period they will diversify their portfolios by moving closer to their benchmarks what they're doing is typically selling Our Kind of names and so we that is why they're putting extreme pressure on them uh will create losses by selling stocks and that gives us a tax loss asset which we have it's over two billion dollars right now against which we can take future gains and then concentrate towards our highest conviction names we have a paper on our site which shows the benefits of this concentration strategy during risk off and diversification strategy during risk on so we're the closest thing to a venture a strategy to a venture capital Fund in the public Equity markets and uh a venture fund has a long-term investment Horizon if an investor cannot have that long-term an investment Horizon then they should allocate perhaps a small amount to our strategy say one or two percent uh which by the way Mo from what we can tell uh most advisors have us at that one to three percent range now um why would you put any if the risk was the volatility that you see on this chart it is because our companies are going to disrupt the traditional World Order and if we're right then the large cap benchmarks and even some of the mid caps uh mid-cap funds are going to be disrupted we will be a hedge now uh you'll I will say submit to you that last year was the most unusual year of my investment career and not only mine but Bond investors so Bond investors had the worst year in uh in 200 and some odd years when interest rates go up 19 fold in less than a year uh it's going to kill long duration assets bonds are long duration assets they've never seen a year like that Arc is a long duration asset but if we're right and these companies are going to disrupt the traditional world order then we want to be on the right side of change and the market will come our way away from those benchmarks which represent the traditional world order to our strategies what is not the only top investor predicting great things for Bitcoin amid the banking crisis according to Oliver Lynch the Chief Executive Officer of bittrex a seattle-based crypto exchange more institutional investors have been showing interest in the leading crypto asset on Tuesday Lynch had a discussion with Scott melker during which he noted that many big Banks invested in the crypto industry before the collapse of silvergate and Silicon Valley it's not crypto versus Goldman Sachs or crypto versus institutions Lich explained it's a race to who can do cryptic better it also noted that these institutions are waiting for a Time on opportunities in the crypto industry are more easily identifiable before aggressively swooping in this crisis no doubt presents such opportunities for investors sitting on the sidelines what are your thoughts on woods and Lynch's predictions for Bitcoin do you think institutions will be better incentivized to invest in Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies now than before the onset of the banking crisis please drop your comments and observations in the comments section below also be sure you like this video subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications so you never miss any of our regular uploads thanks for watching
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