Fundstrat's Tom Lee shares his predictions for the rest of 2024

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Tom Lee는 AI 수요가 노동력 부족을 자본투자로 대체하며 2030년까지 반도체 매출이 크게 늘어날 것이라 주장하고, 금리 상승기에도 PE가 높아질 수 있다고 봤다. 인플레이션은 통제 범위이며 연말 S&P500 목표 5200(실적 상향 시 5800 가능)을 제시했다. 2030년경 S&P500 15000 장기 전망도 언급했다. 후반부는 진행자가 차트로 SPY·QQQ·엔비디아의 단기 지지/저항을 분석한 내용이다.

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01. I have to ask you about Ai and Nvidia and all of that is there any common thread or any valid comparison between the AI boom that's happening right now and say the internet bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s uh there are a lot of parallels when I started doing Wireless there were 34 million cell phones today There's 7 billion so it's a hypergrowth industry That Grew almost in parallel with internet because without mobile you wouldn't really have the internet that we have today in the early stages of that growth so when you look at penetration Wall Street always underestimates the importance of the technology and part of it has to do with it's a generational lens every new technology is adopted by a young cohort people in their 20s teens or even 30s but most people on Wall Street are in their 40s or 50 so they're one generation removed I remembered when our PC analytic kiter said why would you have one computer per household or even more than that because they're $2,500 and I know when cell phones first emerg people thought it was a yepy toy and it was going to be only for people make 75,000 a year but what I learned as a wireless analyst was teenagers and young kids especially in Europe were using cell phones so I used a vintage model saying that if 100% of like teenagers have a cell phone by the time they're 60 the penetration rate should be whatever it is that's like AI the adoption rate for AI is stagger ing but the use case is important because there's a labor shortage so to me I I think it's very likely we're underestimating how much revenue all these companies will make I can give you some simple math yeah please the global labor shortage by the end of this just by the end of this decade is close to 40 million worker equivalents and that's 3 trillion of wages okay R turning labor cost to Tech automation of which we know today 80% is is Hardware silicon so does that mean whoever is supplying the chips might have a 2 trillion Revenue probably and right now the largest share of that would go to a company like Nvidia so if Nvidia is 100 billion in revenues now you know what is by the end of this decade is it a 800 billion a trillion dollar Revenue company and then what should we discount that rate at I'd say there's probably a lot of upside just from an overall index perspective there is an incredible lot riding on a handful of companies right now whether it's Nvidia specifically the mag 7 more broadly and that you know in uh 1999 there was just an incredible weight on Cisco and Sun Microsystems and Microsoft and a couple of others do you see any parallels in the market environment yes there's a lot of parallels but there are some differences you know keep in mind Cisco sold a you know $100 box Nvidia selling a $50,000 chip so okay the moat around that is much much greater I also think to contextualize this we need to look at the global economy if we're turning lab labor cost into silicon then the which countries are really the primary suppliers of Technology the US by a country mile is the only supplier so the US is essentially exporting technology now and that's different because internet was more democratized people just put up towers and laid fiber you can't you know create your own version of an Nvidia chip you have to buy it from Nvidia so I think that Tech will probably be you know 40 50% of the Global stock market weight where are we now it's probably 20 oh wow it's probably like 18 I mean you know in the US it's only 40 and when in the US it's 40 globally it's 18 and you say it's going to go to 40 to 50% globally yes because you're replacing recurring labor costs with a capital investment talk to us about rates the higher interest rate environment and what it means for stock valuation because I think this is where people are either a little bit surprised or perhaps a little nervous the idea that even in the higher rate environment stocks can move upwards yeah well and I can site some history and then maybe provide some context but since 1935 when you look at the relationship between the 10year yield and Ford PE it is not linear it is a dynamic relationship and between 4 and 7% it is positively correlated so when interest rates go up PE Rises logically it sort of makes sense because you're seeing it now when you have higher rates it's barriers to entry so the existing companies make more money and companies earn money on their cash so de unlever companies are actually you know for Apple it's like6 seven $8 in earnings right some big number actually was splits it's lower and between 4 and 5% the median Ford PE has been 18 and a half and 48% of the time it's actually above 20 what's S&P trading at now well the the PE the Ford PE is probably around 18 okay or but the median Ford PE is 16 what should we make of the fact that a lot of the market is not doing well I think it speaks to a lot of things one is the market is star for cash and there's 6 trillion cash on the sidelines finra margin debt is like 20% below where it was in October 2021 so there isn't a lot of money slashing in the stock market I know it's weird because we're at record highs yeah so if that if there is money actively trading it's just buying the high volume sectors which is Tech from a rates perspective that and I kind of mentioned it before like the groups that are hurt by tight policy have really been sucking wind so I think if monetary policy eases or people are more convinced of it then breadth expansion is going to be pretty Fierce later this year what is your outlook for rates at this point because you mentioned the strong consumer earlier but on the other hand we have seen a little bit of weakening in the labor market we have seen CPI start to soften although there's a lot of debate over whether or not that's going to be a durable Trend but what are you seeing well I think inflation if we looked at historically how people looked at inflation whether it's the surveys or isms inflation's under control because like for instance the ism Services manufacturing the prices paid component is below the long-term average right now so at 57 people think 57 means price going up that's not true it's averaged like 58 since ception so actually price trends are below where they have been I I think people aren't using history to understand where we are now and if you look at um Mish surveys both onee and 5year inflation expectations are below the long-term average so consumers and businesses in their perception don't think there's inflation CPI is elevated but as you guys know and talked about and many economists point out it's really due to two components that are kind of lagging right one's shelter and one is auto insurance and you know the median CPI inflation rate right now is 1.4% year-over-year it's long-term average is six everything except for housing and auto insurance is below Trend there's 137 components another way to look at it is what percentage of the basket of CPI equal weight is below their long-term year-over-year growth rate so take each component and just say where do it sit it's now at 55% so and and the long-term average is 50 so more than five 55% of CP components are below their long-term average it's considered controlled when it's 50% do you have a year end Target for the market or a one-year Target or anything like that right now like where can we go well our curent at the on the first week of December 2023 we had said our Target for 2024 was 5200 which at the time was almost 20% upside now our 5200 is low because we're above that level yeah we haven't changed our Target because our practices typically to do it at the midyear okay so we're two weeks away um give can you give us a little hint yeah I'd say at the originally we said earnings could be 270 okay and we'd put like an 18 multiple on that and that's got you to 5200 2025 earnings no longer look like 270 it looks more like 285 okay and as I was citing as interest rates moved up the PE should be higher so let's say 20 is a more appropriate PE multiple or even 21 then you get into the 5800 is level but I think the open question is really if you're in mid June and December 31 is it a line up or is there a pullback and then a line up and I'm I would probably this is not evidence-based just an opinion I don't see why I would be straight up here's something I always wanted to ask an equity strategist but when you're coming up with the price Target do the specific numbers actually matter for your clients or are they mostly interested in the direction the overall direction like line go up line go down well it's it's uh do you know this is a lifelong debate because for 30 years I covered Wireless stocks and I had price targets and our sales people would always say no one cares about your price Target but then first thing in the question meeting people where do you think where do you think this thing goes so they always care about the price Target I don't really value people's price targets which is 10% above where you are now because to me that's just like that's like staying in the middle of the lane and you can't make clients money so whenever we did stock research we always had to build a base case on what we think could happen and then discount it at what we think is a reasonable rate a lot of our price targets seemed really crazy when we did Wireless I remember I upgraded you can time stamp it I show you Alamosa Holdings at 21 cents and it went to $22 my price Target was not 30 C it was $12 at the time and we upgraded Western Wireless at $1.74 our price Target was $25 and it ended up going to 40 so I think we try to look at a normalized situation and in a normalized world if this is a normal S&P cycle okay following demographics I I could provide a chart later S&P should be potentially 15,000 by the end of the decade you so to me that's the more as you move into longer time time frames that's probably where I think we're moving toward Tom Le interview today they just talked about the overall economy the Spy the QQQ and then they talked about Nvidia since it's on a once in a-lifetime AI Trend right now so we'll briefly break down all three of those so right off the bat you can see there is a distance that we have between the 45 day we're almost 3% off the 45-day moving average and almost 12% off the 200 day moving average so we are creating a pretty decent Gap above these moving averages guys which could be a sign for a pullback like here when we had a pretty decent Gap we started to top out and come back and break through it the bullish case would be to hold this 542 area and break out past the 550 keep making new all-time highs the bearish case that I can see is that we push all the way back up to 550 we make a double top here and then start rejecting lower that could bring us back down to the 535 area to the 5 25 area which would also be right around that 45 day moving average if we check out the QQQ this is all the tech stocks it's a little bit stronger a little bit farther off the moving averages so it's almost 42% off the 45 day moving average and almost 14% from the 2 200 day moving average so those are some pretty big gaps to pay attention to these ETFs could start getting a little topheavy after this massive run you can see we come back and touch this 45-day moving average all of the time as of right now if we were headed back to the 45-day moving average we would have to drop at least 3% you can see guys worst case scenario we do come back and touch the 200 day moving average we will remain bullish as long as we hold this 473 area on the QQQ ideally we'll keep going higher and break out of this 487 and make new all-time highs the Bears case will start getting rejected somewhere around here we could have this first leg down cool off period and then another leg down that would bring us back around the 460 area right at that 45 day moving average which again would not be the end of the trend it could just just be a nice healthy pullback to then keep going higher stocks can't just go straight up forever they do need pullbacks but until we break this low we are bullish and we should keep going higher now Nvidia everybody's baby the last week has been crazy we dropped about 16% in 3 days but now we spent the last 2 days making almost 9% back so this stock is moving crazy down 16% up 9% if you ask me we're still looking a little bearish this kind of looks like a shoulder this could be the head we can make a another shoulder right now and come back down to this 45 day moving average around 110 but as long as we hold this 118 area and keep going to the high side we are looking bullish I just think we're a little topheavy I think we're going to start getting rejected and going lower even before we get up to $130 per share and I think we'll make our way back down as always I hope you guys enjoyed the video and the breakdown make sure and hit