저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 엔비디아 실적이 AI 랠리의 분수령이며 매출·EPS 성장률(112%, 125%) 대비 가이던스가 핵심이라고 주장. AI 수요가 2~4차 파생으로 확산 중이며 1년 내 시총 4조달러 전망. 2~3개월 지연은 수요 영향 없는 일시적 이슈로 평가. 승수효과로 기술 섹터 전반에 순풍, 나스닥 2만 가능성 언급. 진행자 Zeb Fields는 엔비디아 주가가 44% 급등 후 단기 횡보·조정 가능성을 분석하며 실적 발표 전후 변동성 강조.
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lot writing on this report you have a new note out uh let's just start with this I'm just looking at the estimates these are the estimates Revenue growth of 112% eps growth of 125% um just astronomical it's like a head shaking your head and you're one of the biggest fans of this company can this company meet these expectations can it even exceed them is just meeting them good enough for investors well meeting them is not good enough but I believe this is going to be a drop the mic moment for The Godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia because all of our checks are showing this is accelerating and I think the street like you said every quarter prove it prove it this revolution is just starting but it all starts with Nvidia in my opinion it is the most important earnings not just of the Year potentially in many years because of what this represents in terms of tech so I've been asking a lot of people this is it the earnings that matter or the guidance because the expectations are lofty let's say they they meet or beat when it comes to revenue and EPS but the guidance isn't what people expecting what does that do to the stock what do you think it does to the market it's all about the guidance but but all I we just got back from Asia all of our checks are showing street is still underestimating this acceleration because right now the only game in town is Jenson and really if you look what Nvidia is doing especially from chips coming forward this Enterprise demand is just starting in my opinion of course pal Jackson Hole is so important obious but the but the market what it's going to do for the rest of the year and I could arue even in 2025 it starts with this Nvidia earnings and I expect get the popcorn ready it's going to be a you say this every quarter D no but this this is going to be a showstopper showing where the revolution's going and I think the Skeptics continue to get proven wrong what about the questions um the air pocket between different iterations of their chips uh some of their customers making their own chips and the fact that the AI uh enthusiasm seems to be dying down you're not concerned about any of that yeah so it's hit on them for a delay 2 to 3 months it's I view that as sort of an asri in other words this is not moving the needle in terms of from a demand perspective when you talk about AI in terms of some of the hype look what we saw from the hyperscalers Amazon Google Microsoft what nadela talked about what leases Sue in AMD the messy of AI paler in terms of the use cases it's showing that now the second third fourth derivatives are just starting to play out so when I look at what the Godfather AI Jens and Nvidia are doing this is we're talking about transformation I believe a year from now this is a $4 trillion Mark cap along with apple and Microsoft by the way you changing his last name it's Jensen Nvidia It's Not Jensen Wong anymore you just decided look this is you're making decisions I want to get back to your note um according to your research for every dollar spent on Nvidia chips it kind of flows through to the rest of the tech sector to $8 to $10 um what does that mean for some of these other stocks that's the most important thing cuz remember it's not just about Nvidia it's about the multiplier it's about the revolution the trillion dollars of capex for every dollar spend on an Nvidia chip there's an 8 to 10 multiplier across the rest of tech that's why it's so important in terms of what Nvidia says for this bull market to continue so you're saying it's a broad Tailwind it's not just it's a rising tide that's going to lift all boats because it's not just even the software because software seems to be under pressure uh or at least it was when it comes to this AI craze and it seems like a lot of the money that was going to software has gone to chips but even next week you'll hear from Benny off and sales for us what are they focused on AI look at mcder service now in other words it's just starting now the software wave is a second third derivative that's what I think we're seeing here a year from now NASDAQ 20,000 and it continues because now the rest of this party it is only 900 p.m.
in the AI party that goes to that we believe it goes to 4:00 a.m. to 4: not to Sunrise but it stops at 4 4 a.m. and look thereby times music stops and there's glass in the yeah but right now what we hear next week it shows this party the music continues to play on all right I know Tech is really your real housee but you look at the broader Market as well we're going to show a chart this is the mag 7 and the S&P equal weight since the start of this quarter the equal weight outperforming the mag 7 um when it comes to that mag s trade how important are these earnings we had our data team run the numbers uh imply volatility post earnings 10% up or down what do you think this report does to that Mega cap Tech trade that AI trade Etc they're the torch bearers of this rally that continues and I think it's just the start look what's happened with apple in terms of the new iPhone launch the AI story will be led soia stops the broadening because that's what we're seeing right now with equ it's the broadening of the market people are putting their money in other places especially cyclicals ahead of a cut so you're saying that this report could actually change some of those flows oh I think it does and I think ultimately Tech will lead the market higher from a large cap perspective we look into year end and I think Mag 7 actually to outperforms but but again many have been skeptical the Bears in hibernation mode they've been negative on big tech for the last few years but when it comes down to numbers when it comes down to this Revol this is the 1995 almost 1996 moment but not a 1999 bubble moment was all about Nvidia and their expectations for their earnings that are going to be coming out next Wednesday on the 28th but before we break down Nvidia stock wanted to summarize what Jerome pal said at the Jackson hall meeting he implied that there's coming rate Cuts he said the time has come for policy to adjust he also said the FED will do everything they can to support a strong labor market and that there's less risk to inflation but more downside risk to employment he really didn't say anything new he really didn't say anything set in stone he read straight off the prompt reader and didn't answer any questions when he was done right after he was done talking the markets actually sold off pretty aggressively after gapping up this morning earlier now we're starting to rebound where we're up almost 9/10 of a per % and Nvidia is up almost 4% today so as of right now it looks like the markets are digesting what he said in a positive way on to Nvidia stock 've been on an absolutely massive run from the lows down here to the highs we ran almost 44% guys in a straight line and that's even before the earnings come out so this could be a buy the rumor sell the news type of earnings event they could also come out blow out expectations give even better guidance than expected and the stock continues to blast off to the upside we're kind of in no man's land right now we're well above the 45-day moving average and the wi ascending trend line that it respected for several months I'm more or less expecting Nvidia and the major markets to chop sideways through the rest of today and through Wednesday until we get this number cuz this will affect all AI stocks it's not just going to be Nvidia Nvidia has astronomical expectations for what they're expected to meet on this earnings report but their future guidance is going to be the real stock mover the bullish case for Nvidia stock I would expect us to keep consolidating let this $45 moving average maybe catch up to the bottom make that a nice support and then continue to the upside and for the bearish case for NVIDIA we do have three consecutive lower highs so that's bearish we're also well above all of the trend lines and moving averages after a 45% move straight up so taking those into consideration we're definitely due for a sideways consolidation even a pullback period after a move like this you can see the last time Nvidia had a sell off we had a double top then we Consolidated for about a month before breaking lower touching the trend line and continuing to the upside you can see right before earnings they made it all the way back up to the previous Highs at That Make It or Break It point if they would have came in with bad numbers it would have been able to sell off and had a triple top but since they blew through the numbers we had a gap up and it kept going to the upside so just because we've had such a magnificent run does not mean that we can't keep going to the upside it all depends on the numbers that are going to come out and more importantly the future guidance for the years to come if they come out again and smash on top and bottom lines beat these crazy expectations and raise the guidance because there's just so much demand guys this stock is going to continue continue to fly to the moon these last four quarters of Nvidia earnings have been unbelievable we went from $2.70 up to $42 up to $516 per share up to $612 per share Guys these are unbelievable numbers and Nvidia actually has a relatively low PE ratio compared to how fast they're growing and expected to keep growing into the future so those are just some things to keep into consideration guys remember these are my thoughts and opinions do your own research before investing
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