저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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반도체 시장은 소비 둔화로 20nm 이상 공정 가동률이 하락할 것으로 보이나, 데이터센터·5G·HPC 관련 첨단 노드(20nm 이하)는 95~100% 가동률을 유지할 전망. TSMC 매출의 약 64%가 첨단 노드에서 발생해 실적 방어력이 있음. 6월 매출은 전년 대비 18.5% 성장해 성장 둔화 조짐이 있음. 단기 변동성 리스크는 있으나 장기적으로는 기술 진화에 따라 강세 전망이며, 본인은 TSM 보유를 유지한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
today we' more importantly the manufacturing aspect of it i do want to say the semiconductor market is a very tricky one because it's one that's typically very cyclical for numerous reasons outside of your typical tech refresh you also have consumer spending being an important force of this kind of market because a lot of companies in the semiconductor industry create products for consumers so if consumer spending is expected to decrease we might also see a decrease in semiconductor stocks unfortunately things are a little bit tricky right now because in the past few years we have been hit with things like the semiconductor shortage as numerous emerging technologies require more chips so typically this is a market that has a nice amount of reasons to be bearish but now you also have a lot of reasons to be bullish and today we're going to take a closer look at what the market is showing right now especially for the second half of 2022 so i am a shareholder of tsm so i want to take a closer look if what i'm seeing now is deter me from being investor or kind of changing my mind my discord channel and my let's start off with taking a closer look at taiwan semiconductor manufacturing traded under the new york stock exchange as ticker tsm this is the global leader of manufacturing and semiconductors with over 50 of the market share which is insane right now sitting at 80 and 18 cents as i am recording the stock is down 1.6 and we can see from its 52-week high the stock is definitely uh down a nice amount down over 42.9 so it definitely has been better days for tsm and this is also a company that pays a nice dividend of roughly 2.93 at the moment all right so now let's take a closer look at this image that transforms posted on july of 2022 they kind of give us a forecast for the second half of 2022 for foundry capacity utilizations for those not familiar foundries are the manufacturing buildings of the semiconductors and there are different sizes and each size we can see they this is a market that because of semiconductor shortage has been working at near or at 100 utilization rate for the past few quarters for almost the past two years right but now things are changing for numerous things one is we are seeing a decrease or expected to see a decrease in consumer spending so there are certain kind of sizes in semiconductors that might experience uh instead of being 100 utilized they're gonna be somewhere between 90 to 95 some also are expected to be somewhere around 90 with potential downside risk while others are expected to not shift as much between 95 to 100 percent first let's take a closer look at which type of production lines are expected to see the biggest decrease and it seems to be anything above 20 nanometers i do want to say most of these chips are ones that deal with the consumer market so it does seem like the consumer market is expected to decrease now if we take a closer look at the advanced nodes and these are things below the 20 nanometers these are the ones that are expected to see the least amount of declines for example the utilization rates are expected to be somewhere between 95 to 100 the reason being is these advanced processors are used for things like cpus gpus asic 5g fpgas and other types of accelerators and these are things normally used in data centers and other types of servers 5gs and things dealing with high performance computing so while the consumer market is still expected to decrease we can see like the enterprise market and these data center markets are still somewhat strong for these semiconductor companies and that's why it's very important to understand which semis produce a nice amount of consumer products and which semiconductors produce a nice amount of solutions for data centers because those are the ones that i believe are going to be able to be really really strong during this consumer downtrend now let's take a closer look at the smc we saw that the advanced nodes are the ones that are expected to decrease the least or have almost no changes at all great news for tsm investors roughly 64 of their most recent quarter revenue came from advanced node 20 came from the 5 nanometer 30 came from the 7 nanometer and 14 came from the 16 nanometer so if we take a closer look anything below 20 nanometers is still expected to have somewhere between 95 to 100 utilization rate for the second half of 2022 so that is good news for tsm the other 34 of total revenue definitely has a higher chance of seeing a bigger decline but we can see majority of revenue is still looking strong for those not familiar tsm is actually reporting their earnings this upcoming week on july 14th i do want to say i'm very interested to see what they have to mention about the outlook for the second half of the year and depending on that outlook i do believe it's gonna kind of move the overall semiconductor market on either a positive direction or a negative direction this is a company that does report their monthly revenue so i don't think the results that we are going to see this quarter are going to really move to stock what investors are going to be really cared about is that outlook like i mentioned but i do want investors to take a note of this tsmc for june they reported 18.5 year-over-year growth so that's still very strong growth compared to the same time last year if we take a look that 18.5 is actually the smallest year-to-date monthly growth uh the previous one was on march where the that month they grew over 33 percent year over year and the largest was actually on may which they grew 65 year over year for that month uh so we can see things are slowing down and again seeing this with kind of utilization rates also decreasing we can see that hey maybe this might not be that growth story anymore but like i mentioned before in numerous episodes and like trend force mentioned in this report they still believe that a lot of these emerging technologies like data centers like 5gs fpga cpus and all these are gonna be a strong reason for the semiconductor companies to have some growth in the upcoming quarters and the upcoming years so for me as an investor of tsmc this is not a reason for me to sell but i do believe in the short term there are some risks as maybe revenue might be slowing down but in the long term of things technology continues to evolve and these emerging trends that we are seeing are gonna be fueled by semiconductors so long term bullish but in the short term there could be a lot of volatility i will definitely be doing an episode on their earnings this upcoming thursday so make sure to subscribe make sure to hit that thumbs up and see you guys next time peace out
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