저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 소프트웨어 수요 확산이 2026년 테마라고 주장하며, 미국의 대중 수출 허용과 중국의 Nvidia 칩 의존으로 엔비디아 수요가 급증해 강한 상승(펌프)이 올 수 있다고 주장. 밀수 칩 보도와 H20 판매 재개를 근거로 엔비디아 매출 성장률이 시장 전망(51%)보다 높은 65% 이상이 될 수 있다고 추정. 중국 측 구매 축소 발언은 연출에 가깝다고 평가.
다듬은 글
When you start to see people get jittery about the AI spin, whether it's enough, whether it's too much, whether there's any real return, when you see the results out of Salesforce today, as well as some of the other companies, this cycle, what does that tell you? Validation movement. I mean, look at MongoDB is another one, right?
And you saw with Crowd Strike on the AI side as well. Look rem I think what you're starting to see here is the second, third, fourth derivatives. They're now playing out with the AI revolution. That's going to be the theme 2026. This is, I think, just more and more momentum, especially on the software use case side going into 2026.
Nearly no one is prepared for the frightening pump that Nvidia is about to experience. Before you think this is just hype, consider that during the past 30 days, a huge amount of work has been going on behind the scenes, which may compel Nvidia to make one of the most drastic upward swings we've ever seen.
And I'll show you the data Wall Street is silently getting ready for in the next 30 seconds. The last reason is the scariest of them, so stay with me. While the president is loosening export limits on Nvidia, China is speeding up attempts to increase homegrown AI chips. Dear Drabosza explores the potential implications of additional Nvidia chips for China's tech behemoths in today's tech.
Good morning, Darl. Good morning. According to reports, Deepseek is training on black wells that have been smuggled as soon as Trump reopened the window by Dent and Alibaba. according to Reuters requested H2O orders. All of this highlights how far behind China's domestic semiconductor industry still remains.
Additionally, Beijing is forced to make a three-way trade-off that it cannot win, allowing businesses to purchase Nvidia processors undermines Beijing's local chip champions, whose market capitalization is currently close to $300 billion. Blocking them, however, slows down its own IT behemoths and degrades China's top AI models.
The third option is to completely give up regulatory authority while businesses continue to use gray market chips. Beijing thus loses leverage regardless of the outcome. Now, China's AI industry isn't boosted by the policies alone. It formalizes the reliance that was already present in the background and that DeepS and others had been abusing.
Additionally, Chinese AI labs become even more dependent on Nvidia's road map, trapped at whatever generation Washington permits rather than diverging from US hardware. Let's begin with something that nearly everyone overlooked. Demand for Nvidia is not only rising, but skyrocketing, and China just did a crazy thing.
In addition to attempting to develop their own AI processors, the US recently facilitated Nvidia's exports. This may seem complex, but it really means one thing. A huge pump might be forced by the pressure of this policy shift, which could liberate billions of dollars in delayed sales. According to industry research firm Trend Force, which analysts quoted, China's high-end semiconductor market is expected to rise by more than 60% next year, accounting for around 50% of the market.
However, that estimate was created while US chips were prohibited. This reopening has the potential to alter the situation and jeopardize all of the fictitious demand that Beijing has supported for years. For this reason, folks, contrary to what some critics and China hawk lawmakers say, this is not a strategic defeat.
Legal access only limits China's alternatives and maintains the US in control of the progress ceiling. Folks, it doesn't actually close the gap. Indeed, they won't do it themselves and it will be more of a black box. I mean I have a lot of questions because there is the geopolitical question and then dear Joe there is the technology question which you have and that kind of lends credence to the idea.
Last hour we were talking to Jack Katy Y about well let them build off the US stack so that we can kind of know what's going on there and be more in control. And that's crucial isn't it? We know they were going to do it anyhow so it's all about control. There was a lot of conjecture that they were able to smuggle a number of Nvidia processors to get there, even for the original Deepseek model that garnered so much attention at the start of this year.
Hold on. Deepseek is using Blackwell GPUs that have been smuggled for training. Blackwell's smuggled. When your best AI model is dependent on elicit Nvidia hardware, you're begging rather than competing. What will happen next? It's really crazy how they snuck them. Thus, this essentially puts Beijing in a difficult situation.
They're kind of losing everywhere they look. Additionally, keep in mind that they have been working for years to develop their own domestic chip manufacturers who are much behind the US chip manufacturers in terms of technology. Beijing is thus put in a difficult situation. Chip makers were going to do this anyhow.
But now Beijing has to decide who can and cannot use these Nvidia processors and compel the use of Chinese accelerators which in the end no one really wants to use. That clearly brings this into focus. All right, Deardra, I appreciate it. Let us bring in Iman Javas from Washington to discuss the smuggled Nvidia processors that Dearra mentioned and how China obtained them.
Iman, hi Sarah. As you have heard, there is a lot of interest in these allegations that Chinese businesses were already utilizing powerful Nvidia chips prior to President Trump's decision to permit the shipment of those chips to China. This week, we discovered more information on how Chinese operatives operating within the US have been smuggling high-tech chips from new zoos warehouses to Chinese businesses.
One such attempt apparently succeeded, according to a criminal complaint that was made public on Monday. The government now claims that businesses in Shenzhen and Hong Kong purchased chips from Nvidia in the US through a complex network of middlemen and straw buyers, then mislabeled them as other goods from a phony company for illicit export.
This is the terrifying part. There are still not enough GPUs in the world. Every business desires Nvidia chips. For them, they are fighting. Take a listen to this quote. Computer power is still lacking in the world. Businesses are in dire need of chips. What then happens when Nvidia introduces new processors that are even more potent?
Instead of slowing down, demand surges once more. The Nvidia booms in 2023 and 2024 were created by the same configuration, but the quantities are now significantly higher. Analysts predict a significant price increase as a result. Well, Jean, I'd like to ask you about Nvidia since you're actually rather optimistic about the company's revenues for the upcoming year.
More optimistic than the street. In fact, according to the information, these Blackwell chips are essentially being transipped in relation to the China scenario. After being sent to nations where Blackwell chips are permitted to be put in data centers, they were disassembled and sent to China. Thus, they circumvented the export prohibition.
In this way, the Chinese government will convene and essentially determine whether or not to permit corporations to purchase the H200 chip. According to other reports from the information, there's a lot going on which raises some questions about whether Nvidia will really enjoy a boost in China. Well, to start, I would like to know if DeepS trained on Nvidia C.
In my opinion, there is a good chance that that occurred. This disconnect still exists. When we saw Deepseek's performance a year ago, there was a doubt regarding how they achieved it. At the most fundamental level, I believe that the kind of chips the GPUs are crucial to the advancements in AI and that greater insights are produced by more sophisticated GPU.
Naturally, Deepseek had a lot of insights and claimed to have very low training costs. That, in my opinion, wasn't indicative of what was truly included, and I believe Nvidia was most likely involved. Nvidia is inclined to claim that geopolitical factors prevented them from obtaining those chips. They are reluctant to acknowledge that.
As for the turn that we saw this week where Nvidia was given the go-ahead to sell H20s and Chinese leadership almost immediately said, "Well, maybe we're not going to be buying as many of those chips as you thought." I think that again chips are important and the significance of these H20 chips is the reason this has been presented as such a bait throughout the entire trade negotiations and beyond.
Thus, I consider the commentary from China since Monday to be essentially theatrical. Albeit I'm not clear why they're doing it. They will ultimately purchase these chips. Additionally, I believe that Nvidia will likely make around $30 billion in revenue. As a result, their growth rate should increase from the streets projected 51% to 65% or higher.
And that's a more conservative estimate. Incidentally, therefore, I believe that these chips are ultimately significant and Nvidia will conduct some business in China within the upcoming year. In light of the smuggled chips, panic buying US prohibitions, and China's complete reliance, the following is the reality.
Yes, Nvidia is about to get a scary pump. It's not scary because Nvidia is at risk. This need is so unstoppable that it is terrifying. When one business is unable to construct the AI future of an entire superpower, when China's every move compels them to purchase more Nvidia chips, and when China's advancement is constrained by the United States, it's not typical growth.
It's not a cycle of hype. Nvidia is perched right on top of that geopolitical pressure cooker. So, is there going to be a scary pump? It's not coming after all. We just responded to the world simply hasn't yet grasped that it has already begun.
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