저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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TSMC 2월 매출 전년비 37.9% 증가로 반도체 수요 견조하다고 봄. 전월비 14.7% 감소는 아시아 연휴 등 계절 요인으로 우려 불필요. 3나노 1세대 2023년 1분기 출하 예상, 2세대(N3E)는 모건스탠리 리포트상 수율 개선으로 2023년 2분기로 앞당겨질 수 있음. 주가는 고점 대비 25% 하락해 밸류에이션 리스크 상당 부분 해소, 다만 변동성은 여전. 배당수익률 약 2.32%, 당장은 미보유이나 분할매수 방식을 제시하며 향후 5년간 반도체 업종 유망 전망.
다듬은 글
welcome back to another episode today we are going to go back to the semiconductor industry and take a quick look at taiwan semiconductor manufacturing there are a few reports that have come out that can overall show the current state of the semiconductor industry we're going to take a quick look at their february revenue numbers we're also gonna take a closer look at their kind of future potential three nanometer technology that might have some good news coming out uh and just overall my thoughts on the business ha so for those that are not familiar taiwan semiconductor manufacturer they pretty much make chips these are the ones that create chips for a lot of the big players some players like amd apple nvidia qualcomm the list goes on and on and on and on uh so this is a very important company and we can see in late 2020 when the chip shortage started to happen this stock price took a huge huge growth and we can see since i want to say early 2021 maybe even late 2020 the stock price has barely barely moved it's been quiet for about a year and a half now uh and i want to take a closer look at what's happening here so first let's take a closer look at those february numbers so tsm they do report revenue reports on the monthly basis which i think is a great thing kind of helps us see how the overall semiconductor market is doing and here for february of 2022 they did see a year-over-year increase of about 37.9 and i think that is insane the amount of growth this company is still seeing obviously with everything in the shortage happening right now a company like tsm has a nice amount of pricing power so that's obviously helping out the revenue growth but overall the demand is still insane they do kind of mention that compared to january of 2022 so month to over month the revenue decreased about 14.7 percent and some investors might be kind of freaking out hey that's insane why did it drop that much uh but normally there are kind of like holiday seasons in asia during uh january and february that kind of mess up with production we can see here last year's numbers right last year's number in february of last year it grew about 40 it grew about 14 compared to 2020 where this year it grew 37 right so huge demand boost and same time last year in february compared to january of last year it also saw a month-to-month decrease so this month-to-month decrease i personally would say it's nothing to worry about it seems to be something within the market in asia at that time again it could be things like holiday season so that's the first thing overall it shows great growth potential for the semiconductor industry at least for now let's take a listen to today's sponsor guys know i love finding new investing tools and resources to help me scout out new growth stocks and right now i have rough the motley fool of stock advisor services you get access to tons s average stock picks have done amazing returns if growing your money is something you'd like to do more of this year you can visit fool.com jose naharo or click on the link below for access to my special offer and decide if the stock visor is right for you thanks again to the motley fool and now on to today's video alright so the second thing i wanted to take a closer look at is tsmc and they are moved to three nanometer chip so right now they have the first generation of chips called n3 and they are expected to be released to the customers around quarter one of 2023 obviously they are going to be producing them beforehand but during the process and the kind of curing time expected to get a quarter one of 2023 the second generation of this three nanometer is expected to called n3e and these are expected to produce better yields uh and so that's why this is the second generation that's expect it was originally expected to be released quarter 3 of 2023 but there was a recent update from reports of morgan stanley for m3e the second generation to move closer to quarter 2 of 2023 because the current production test yields are higher than expected so i think that was actually pretty cool news for tsm i also wanted to show this kind of slideshow that ts or this kind of image that tsm has about the current chip size uh we can see right now the one that has recently been created is the five nanometer and that started around 2020 before then was the seven nanometer which started around 2018 and right now and before that was the 10 nanometer around 2016.
you're gonna see most chips right now are starting to come out seven nanometers even though the seven nanometer came out in 2018 so even though the five nanometer has been made by tsm it still takes some time for the chip designers to kind of work with what they have uh so just because three nanometers is expected to come sometime in 2023 i don't think we're gonna see it anytime anytime soon in the pc market so who will use taiwan semiconductors uh three nanometers like i mentioned most cpu makers most gpu makers will be big customers companies like amd companies like intel nvidia qualcomm and apple uh like i mentioned still early on in the process i also wanted to show this kind of road map of amd even though seven nanometers have been released for some time in form of tsm companies like amd are only just currently releasing them to the public uh for example five nanometer which has already been out for taiwan semiconductor uh companies like amd have still not come out with products using the five nanometer so again it just shows to me this kind of just shows how far in advance companies like tsm need to think ahead of time right and it just shows the huge growth potential that is still within the semiconductor industry final thoughts i want to say at the moment i don't own tsm but tsm i mean this is a company that's strong in the semiconductor market it's also paying a dividend yield of about 2.32 uh the stock price is down over 25 from its all-time highs i do believe a good portion of valuation risk has been eliminated for a company like this that doesn't mean volatility can't continue i mean today the stock ended almost oh uh right now 30 minutes before market is closing is down about two percent so volatility is still pretty pretty strong in the market stock prices can continue to go down tsm is one of those stocks that if i wanted to get into i would do more like uh i like the ability of of either dollar cost averaging getting small position here small position there small position all around so you can kind of get some nice positions and if we take a quick look at ev to evident forward ratios again similar style you see that the company is not as overly valued as it has been in the past especially in 2021 um but um there still could be some valuation risk at the end of the day strong dividend strong market and i don't see the semiconductor industry going anywhere within the next five years so this is definitely a stock to keep uh to keeping the radar at least uh and we definitely saw some strong revenue growth numbers today
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