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Hello friends, today's video is about one of the most famous investors in the world, Ray Dario. When the founder of Bridgewater, one of the largest hedge funds, speaks, we should all listen. He recently gave an interview in which he reveals his opinion on the current state of the economy, where the USA is currently in a debt cycle.
But what's exciting about his interview is that he also tells us where he thinks the market will move in the coming years. So if you want to know Ray Dario's forecast for the future financial market, then stay tuned until the end of the video. The economic cycle: So where are we right now in the economic cycle, Mr.
Dario? Please play high, real, in from my one hundredator. Did I understand correctly? Is that attractive? With that, it should now be clear that the party years on the stock markets are over. Before the pandemic, we experienced the boom of the last 10 years due to the low interest rate phase. Money was cheap and inaccessible to everyone.
The economy grew, and everyone was optimistic until the big shock for the entire global economy in 2020. The result of this shock was that central banks massively began to... Printing money to avert the coming crisis was successful; a recession was averted, but this fueled inflation. We now live in a time where it is no longer possible to simply stimulate the markets with fresh money.
In the economic cycle, we are now in a downturn. And what about that now? Yes, if my cash flower is right, so you sing... um... food... Wonderation Day... So we have seen the peak of the video, and now we are moving downwards. However, we are still relatively at the beginning, as we have only seen so far that the air has been let out of the overvalued markets.
The money flows out of the most speculative markets first. For example, the crypto bubble burst. Crash. Let's move on to the less speculative tech stocks that never produced cash flow. Crash. Private equity companies that depend on debt capital. Crash. These markets all fall purely due to the new monetary policy.
But as I said, we are still at the beginning of the downturn phase. It will get worse. Residential real steak out of the way. That we are in an environment of urban inflation means the economy is stagnating and inflation remains high. Normally, inflation... A result of a booming economy: Interest rates are low, unemployment is low, demand rises, and businesses also grow, with workers receiving more money for the same work.
The result is that inflation increases. Urban inflation, however, is a completely different scenario: Inflation is high even though the economy has problems. Unemployment also rises. To regain control of the rampant inflation, interest rates are raised, which only worsens the economic situation. And this is precisely the scenario Ray Dalio now expects.
He believes that inflation will not fall to the desired level, and at the same time, he sees that economic growth will remain low. This is Ray Dalio's forecast regarding the current situation and the short-term view of the debt cycle. But what about the long-term debt cycle? This rises and falls every 75 years.
It's interesting that everyone only focuses on the short-term cycle, completely ignoring the long-term one. Ray Dalio is looking at precisely this long-term cycle and fears that we will face an even bigger problem. But let's let Ray Dalio have something to say on this topic. Market supply the man. Debt determines it.
I've noticed that the US has accumulated enormous national debt in recent years, especially during the pandemic. People who were kept from work by the lockdowns had to be financially supported by the government during that time; otherwise, chaos and economic collapse would have ensued. The government was able to prevent this through fresh money.
Voice, income checks, and new infrastructure projects helped ensure that people still had enough money to survive. But where did all this money come from? Well, the US government sold new Treasury bonds to the government, which in turn printed 4 trillion US dollars in new money. However, this very approach is what caused today 's inflation in the US.
The US is spending more than it earns, and the debt ceiling has been reached, meaning no new debt can be incurred. Therefore, there is a possibility that they are overextending themselves with their debt, and that this could trigger the decline in long-term debt in this cycle. Another problem is that international demand for new US bonds is currently very low.
In conclusion, we are not in an official crisis, but the signs pointing in the direction things will go in the coming months are increasing. as clearly as Ray sees this situation. At the same time, the United States issued a statement of death. If you look at the global recession, it wasn't as bad as expected.
However, it can't be denied that he is visibly worried about current problems such as the high US national debt, the debt ceiling, or the declining demand for US bonds. All of these are problems that make the future seem uncertain. The core problem is that the US government is spending more money than it is taking in, and Ray Dalio says that the spending isn't going towards fundamental improvements in productivity.
This could reverse the situation in the long run, allowing the government to take in more than it spends, but that's currently just wishful thinking. If you want to learn more about Ray Dalio's New World Order, then check out another video on my channel. In conclusion, it's always a problem when you spend more than you take in.
This applies to us in our private lives, but also to all governments in the world. At some point, the debts will become too large to manage. Finally, I have a clip of Ray Dalio for you where he shares his opinion on the current situation. Stock market prize money I hope you found the video interesting until the end.
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