원문 보기
So, we'd like to see a test here and if we can get by this year or this cycle uh with a 30 plus% drop instead of a 50 60 70% uh drop that that I think will be a victory and will be consistent with the lower volatility that um has defined Bitcoin as time has gone on here. So that's the first thing. The second thing is, you know, I actually said and boy, Andrew Rossin,
most individuals aren't ready to recognize that Bitcoin has just surpassed a certain barrier. The protocol reached escape velocity following years of conjecture, regulatory attacks, and ongoing uncertainty. This implies that no institution, no government, and no concerted effort can avert what is about to happen.
Bitcoin is no longer a test. Everyone is unaware of how quickly the global monetary system is expanding. And while everyone else is still wondering if it's too late, those who can clearly see it are acting now. The majority of people are measuring Bitcoin incorrectly, which is the issue. They believe that the price in dollars tells a complete thing.
However, price is not the actual story. It has to do with infrastructure adoption and erosion of confidence in established financial institutions. Emerging markets don't wait for approval. Since their currencies are failing and their governments are powerless to stop them, they're using Bitcoin as a cornerstone of their circular economy development.
Institutions who disregarded Bitcoin for years are now rushing to gain exposure before the window closes. And now ArchInvest Kathy Wood is making a statement that ought to catch everyone's attention. Bitcoin has fundamentally changed. She stated, "The 4-year cycle may be ending, and what follows won't resemble anything we've ever seen.
Let's speak with Kathy with directly to gain additional understanding. Kindly remember to enable notifications, like and subscribe. We appreciate you being here once more. watch the remainder of the video happened to coincide with the flash crash on 1010. Uh and so we're trying to sort out okay right now is there a big whale out there uh that that has not surfaced yet uh and is somehow related to uh the leverage that has been taken on in the last few years?
Um we don't think so. But uh we do not think the probability is zero. Uh so that's that's one thing. Um I think the other thing and so we do have the question of fourear cycle is this it and was 80ish,000 the low? Uh so we'd like to see a test here and if we can get by this year or this cycle uh with a 30 plus% drop instead of a 50 60 70% uh drop that that I think will be a victory and will be consistent with the lower volatility that um has defined Bitcoin as time has gone on here.
So that's the first thing. The second thing is, you know, I actually said, and boy, Andrew Ross Sorcin ran with it when when I said on CNBC uh squawk box one morning, "Well, you know, it seems to me that stable coins are usurping a role that we thought Bitcoin would play uh when we f put out our first white paper in 2015." and uh and and and and that does seem to be the case.
Uh uh we do see a lot of activity especially in emerging markets um focused on stable coin. stable coins are serving as the insurance policy that we thought Bitcoin would provide to people in emerging markets um uh as they were trying to protect themselves from you know confiscation of their wealth whether it's in the form of inflation or just outright confiscation and capital controls and so forth he ran with that but uh uh I had to put that in context that was everything else equal.
Well, something else was going on uh and that was the gold price moving up as rapidly and as much as it has during the past year. Uh and so the digital gold role of Bitcoin um we think is that much more valuable and probably is more than offset what I just said about stable coin. So I think uh we're sorting through that and I think in terms of the future and next year you know we have seen very little institutional buyin it is just beginning uh and uh I think if we get the US for example not uh adding just confiscated Bitcoin to uh a strategic reserve but you know out there buying and we don't know if that's going to be the case.
But if they if they were to do so, I have a feeling that would set off what we're all waiting for, which is, you know, the scarcity value to reassert itself again now that we're near 20 million Bitcoin outstanding and we only have one more million to go. Uh I think the party has just begun uh in that way.
And so we're still, yeah, as we say, truth wins out. And I know a lot of people are discouraged right now, especially with the DATs. Especially with the DATs, uh, you know, and I actually think, and we were talking a little bit before we got on, that as a portfolio manager, I much prefer that we're in a period of doubt and then picking through picking up the pieces is what we all should be doing right now if we really believe what we're saying.
I'm very interested in what you just said. Uh you're speaking specifically of Bitcoin and I I think this is why Andrew Ross Orcin was so focused on this idea of stable coins. Wait a minute. You said Bitcoin uh you've told me in the past that would be Bitcoin's role. Um it is true though, isn't it, that stable coins are usurping one of the roles of Bitcoin.
But you're seeing evidence of Bitcoin being used as a means of exchange. Uh are you maybe you could talk as we hit escape velocity when we first when we did our first white paper on Bitcoin in 2015. Um we were worried about government regulation and rightly so given what happened here in the United States uh and just a lot of lobbying against uh against Bitcoin.
But what has happened is that it has developed to such an extent that it hit escape velocity despite all of that and now we have some tailwinds behind it uh in the form of government policies and deregulation. So um it's pretty I'll start on that one. We we actually own block and have gotten to know that management team very well.
They're they're not only focused on Bitcoin, but in a big way on AI. And if they could marry those two on the Lightning Network, I remember we had a Bitcoin brainstorm with Roast Beef and we were talking about the Lightning Network in Africa, I'm going to say about four years ago, and it really did not take off the way we expected.
So, uh, very interesting and interested in seeing how that evolves. I'm going to go back to, you know, I'm just thinking about these merchants very practically. Um, I think I if if block enables stable coins and Jack has hinted that they that if there's demand pull uh he will uh and block will satisfy it and I think there is going to be demand pull from stable coin.
So I I do think this is uh going to be a little bit of a tugof-war from a merchant point of view um as to you know which way they should go and and uh I think they are asking for stable coin. Why hasn't that the dimminimous uh ruling why hasn't that moved forward? Why what and how will it how will it that see this is the biggest question and why I did say that about stable coins.
Jack needs to get in there and and block to a lobby and say, "Hey, this this is really important for our customer base, which is, you know, tends to be very small business or load emitting." According to Kathy Wood, government regulation was the main concern when ARK released their initial Bitcoin white paper in 2015.
Before Bitcoin grew too large to be stopped, governments might have destroyed it. However, their speed was insufficient. Bitcoin has finally attained escape velocity. Nations that support it will gain a competitive edge over those that want to outlaw it. Bitcoin is a risk on and riskoff asset. As with notes, due to its lack of counterparty risk, Bitcoin was the first asset to recover during the regional financial crisis of 2023.
Because institutional adoption is only getting started, the celebration is just getting started. A straightforward yet crucial distinction is often overlooked in discussions. According to Jeff Booth, Bitcoin is not a technology that is in competition with other technologies. It is a protocol and protocols operate very differently.
Technologies compete until one emerges victorious and the others vanish. Each layer of a protocol adds capabilities without changing the foundation. While Lightning manages speed, Bitcoin serves as a foundation for value security. Programmability is constructed on top of additional layers that provide privacy.
The majority of people never stop searching for the next cryptocurrency to take the place of Bitcoin. However, that misses the issue entirely. Bitcoin doesn't have to accomplish everything. All that is required is for it to serve as the solid base upon which everything else is constructed. it will not be replaced because of this.
Let's hear from Jeff Booth directly now. But um but but overall for the for the protocol and everything else and this is why it's critical in the US what's happening around the world and um if you just think we are inside a system that we all pay 2 and a half% uh margin pay pay two% to take money exact tax to take money for through an intermediator who in money that's losing money.
We are all in that system and it seems normal and every payment goes through the system of attacks to to centralization of money in money that's losing money and this other money doesn't lose money and it doesn't cost anything. So what would the free market do and then what would the free market of those people do and build incentives?
they would reduce their costs to people who wanted to pay in Bitcoin and they would give more value to that and it would just shift and so so the US has to do this to minis because if they don't they're going to lose this to to other countries and everything else that are going to just move to the free market.
Why would they move to the free market? Because we'll demand it. We will demand it. We will demand. We always look for more value. We're part of the free market first. And I understand why this would be so hard to believe. If you just looked at the world as we live in today, the frame of reference that we live in, if and just asked a question, if you had this new thing that was impenetrable, it was a decentral open decentralized secure protocol bounded by energy.
But you would always lived in this other system, then the world would ex look exactly like it should it should because that protocol, it would come in layers. That open protocol would come in layers and it would give more functionality. But we're so not used to that. We we tend to think in technology.
We think there's that technology is win or take most until a new technology replaces it. So if we were living in the other system measuring a protocol that was coming in layers, we would naturally tend to there's a better there's a better technology. There's a new one. There's a new coin that's offers more.
Bitcoin doesn't offer privacy. It won't offer privacy because it would have to make tradeoffs in the base layer. So we wouldn't see the privacy coming on another layer and we would think it it had to exist in another coin. That would be normal, right? So we did so much work at Ego death before we started this to say I spent 15,000 hours trying to kill Bitcoin, right?
To take the other other side and realizing, oh my god, it's a protocol. It is not a technology. It is protocol that's coming in layers. And from that view, that's why we decided to move all of our time into it. And so from it now that you're building with the with all the entrepreneurs in the e ecosystem building the pro the protocol layers you see a totally different world emerging.
You see privacy coming you see and and let's use lightning the original lightning network that Kathy talked about 5 years ago. Of course, the next layer of the protocol is clunky at first, just like the second layer of the protocol of the internet wasn't. It had to be tightened like optimize, optimize, optimize as everybody races on to try to make it better in an open network.
And so that happened in Lightning and now you have Lightning, Arc, Spark, Liquid, and and and it's and you had a payment failure rate before Lightning of a really high payment failure rate when now you have no payment failure rate. And it's now it's able to be prime time. And the same thing is happening on all of these layers at the same time.
And it's growing so fast. And they're all interoperable. And you don't have to build new technology.
Comments 0