저자: PeterLynch/진행자ChristopherUhl · 외국인
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경제 예측을 무시하고 가격 추세를 따르라는 결론이다. 경제 예측 무시 주장: 경제 예측가들은 추세추종형이며, 가격이 4에서 40으로 오른 것이 100으로 간다는 식의 예측은 가능하지만 14로 되돌아갈 수도 있으므로 언제 빠져나올지를 아는 것이 핵심이라고 한다. 역사적 사례: 1930년대 대공황은 주식시장 폭락이 아니라 연준 금리 인상 등 경제 요인으로 발생했고, 1950년대에도 대공황과 핵전쟁 공포가 있었지만 1950년대는 주식시장 최고의 10년이었다고 한다. 석유가 4달러에서 40달러로 오른 뒤 100달러 전망이 나왔지만 실제로는 14달러까지 떨어졌다는 사례도 든다. 예측 부정확성: 일본 닛케이가 4만에서 1만6천으로 떨어지고 일본 붕괴가 예고됐던 것, 중동·LDC 부채 위기 등 과거 붕괴 예측이 대부분 빗나갔다고 지적한다. 시장 통계: 100년간 시장은 53번 10% 이상 하락했고 15번은 25% 이상 하락했다. 장기적으로는 우상향해 왔으며, 단기 방향은 알 수 없다는 입장이다. 단기 예측 불가: 린치는 시장이 언제 오르고 내릴지 모른다고 밝히고, 가격에 반응하겠다고 말한다. 1987년 10월 블랙먼데이 때 주말 동안 예측이 쏟아졌다는 일화도 있다. 진행자 결론: 추세를 따라 진입하고, 청산 조건을 미리 정해두는 전략이 중요하다는 것이다. 출연자 전망: 린치는 장기적으로 시장이 크게 오를 것이라고 보며, 단기 방향에 대해서는 명확한 전망을 내놓지 않는다.
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yeah i mean these people who make the predictions uh they are trend following and you know i'm a big advocate of that on this channel but i mean to say something that's gone from 4 to 40 is going to go to 100 it totally could but it could also go back to 14 like he says it's knowing when to get off because you can get on any time i love that quote in michael covell's trend following book that you can get on the ride anywhere from four to 100 even when it's at 40 already but you just got to know if it gets back to like to 36 like a 10 decline that you aren't going to be on anymore lyl're gonna have a special guest back on the line peter lynch no just kidding we're uh we're doing another commentary video love these i really do enjoy these i hope you do too uh today we're going to be watching a video called peter lynch why you should avoid er no no i need to read correctly why you should always ignore economic predictions when investing i haven't watched this i do like watching things cold with you so here's my thought i do agree you should avoid economic predictions and you should really just let price tell you at the end of the day where stocks are going when you just focus on price a lot gets a lot better because price doesn't lie price isn't going to predict it's going to go up or down it's going to do what it's going to do and i agree without getting into the video already you should always ignore economic predictions when investing so let's take a look at it always something to worry about this is the difference this is what happens in the stock market because see everybody's got the brain power to deal with stock market questions whether you have a stomach for it that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about i grew up i went to school grew up with a kid in the 50s in the decade of the 50s there's a big theory that the depression was caused by stock market crash totally wrong less than one percent of americans owned stocks in 29 we had this big-time recession in fact it was a depression that's what it wasn't caused by the stock market with the economy went down the federal reserve raised interest rates and we had a big time depression in fact we have several depressions like that from 1850 on we had this is only one about eight depression since 1850 but people in the people thought the only reason we got the depression was world war two and they said once we get back next time every session we're gonna have a depression and it's gonna be a great depression i never understood that adjective in front of depression you know i'd be crummy depression or bad depression it was a great depression i never quite accomplished that the uh so people weren't buying stuff in the 50s because they thought another great depression is going to happen in addition people were very scared about nuclear warheads in nuclear war in the 50s people building fallout shelters slacking canned goods there's something about going to vermont building a fallen shelter putting cannibals in it that you don't buy minnesota mining or you don't buy some garbage the syllogism doesn't work out with you buying uh lots of water buying a shotgun buying frozen food that will stay in the freezer that your own generator and you're looking at growth stocks doesn't seem to work out that way you know and i remember in the 50s i mean i remember literally in classes i was in elementary school in the 50s and they'd come in they'd have one of these airaid drills somebody yell a hat and come they blow a whistle and you get under your desk even then i says i don't think this can do a lot of good you know yeah that's for sure but people were worried about a depression and nuclear war in the 50s and then that i mean that the warheads they couldn't do much damage back in the 50s not one of these stand companies you know these kakistan and kazakhstan all these stand guys that have spun off these these streaming building spin-offs from them so they're doing the uh yeah they didn't lead it was a code deal with somebody else's comedian here they're on the side of them the uh uh every one of these little countries says that a boy has to blow the world at 88 times like who's built a fallout shell you know we stopped worrying about it i mean it's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war the 50s was the best decade of this century for stock market with fundrise the same kind of real estate investments that have powered the world's strongest portfolios for except for the 80s only slightly better than the slightly better people they expect a lot we don't okay it wasn't a great uh decade they just didn't expect much we made it through and uh stock market was terrific uh do you remember when oil went from four to forty remember that period oil went from four to forty and experts said we can go to 100 and all the countries the world go bankrupt and then and the big banks go bankrupt they're gonna have a great depression and the stock markets go down and then wipe some pencils and apples you know the uh well i went to oil went from four to four and the expert said it was a hundred within two years oil was at 14 the experts now much higher pay at this point are saying it's gonna go to four and we have a depression and people believe it again you know the uh i remember when the money supply was growing too fast and so we have depression all right so what are you saying goes back to the title of the video why you should always ignore economic predictions when investing yeah i mean these people who make the predictions uh they are trend following and you know i'm a big advocate of that on this channel but i mean to say something that's gone from 4 to 40 is going to go to 100 it totally could but it could also go back to 14 like he says it's knowing when to get off because you can get on any time i love that quote in michael covell's trend following book that you can get on the ride anywhere from 4 to 100 even when it's at 40 already but you just got to know if it gets back to like 36 like a 10 decline that you aren't going to be on anymore that was going too slow we have a depression remember the ldc debt remember the ldc did all the banks our banks were very smart they lent all their net worth to zimbabwe and botswana and both of them and all these countries chile a lot of times they can't pronounce this chase manhattan and chemical manufactures hanover these countries weren't doing so well then they were called undeveloped countries or less developed countries now you have to call them emerging countries it's not politically correct to call anybody an undeveloped country it's like i just found out the other day that the term for somebody that's overweight is laterally challenged yes these are loudly challenged yeah but these are these are gifted they're all going to bankrupt and we have a depression uh in the middle east was going on the world where they were made easier on the world they weren't going to buy our bonds and market crashing depression then japan was going to work another one japan has got all the assets and they're going to buy bonds and we have depression within three years the nikai dollar gone from 40 000 to 16 000 the banking system is in trouble and people said japan was going to collapse i mean people on their prayer list the other day they eliminate triple children mothers they're praying for japan i mean you know it's a country with a fifteen percent savings right you know some bizarre yeah commercial real estate global warming uh you know and i think it's the older you get the more nerves you get about these things i think it's very valuable i think while younger people are better investors is they're not worried they haven't heard about all these crises and they're with children i think if you don't have any kids you got to rent some kids for the weekend get a seminar and ask if you know as a parent of two boys i don't think that's a great idea i mean it's a great idea so you can get the experience but yeah that doesn't sound like a funny supply you know how fast it's been asking me knows about the shape the yield curve is the wrong shape of your curve or that we're 48.3 months into the economy recovering the average coverage less 52.3 bucks you know ask an eight-year-old to know about that a-rolls have a very high expectation about the next 20 years that's what you need to do the more you get away from eight girls the more you wait for living rolls the more you start reading these crazy things you read over the weekend the uh in fact 1955 to 1985 the stock market uh went up a grand total of a thousand points but it was down 800 on mondays so it's down it was there for up to 1800 on non-mondays it wasn't an accident the stock market went down october 1987 was a monday people the weekend become economists and portfolio strategies and they're bull if they take their lunch on the way to work you know in fact i knew very well the market's going down in october of 1987 uh dave ellson remembers that my first vacation was gonna take in six years and we started with ireland and uh we stayed over cottages and play golf and i left them thursday after the close of trade marks down 55 points which wasn't good start but it was down 55 points and we got over there and because the time zone we're able to do what we want to do and get down to cork and called in the market was down to 118.
i said carolyn if the market was not a monday we better go back we're already here so uh i was staying for the weekend so as you know the mark went down 508 on monday so i flew home because my funding goes i think from 13 billion to 9 billion in two working days and i uh oh it was a wow the trend here is not positive like i could do something about it you know yeah but there's something when they call it they wanted to say well what's his doing again well he's on the 10th hole he's even part on the front nine but you know he's in the trap right now this could be a double vote this could be a poor dribble buggy right here could blow the entire front line right here you know this is not what they want to hear you know so i have no idea when the market's gonna go down and uh you know why i do want to go up i'm totally shocked the market was four thousand two and a half years ago i think he just made a key point there peter lynch right greatest inve one of the greatest investors of all time just said specifically i don't know when the market's going to go down i don't know when the market's going to go up i'm just reacting to it i'm just reacting to the price wealth of wisdom just dropped right there 6 000 uh i had no idea about this uh very surprisingly but i'll guarantee you the mark will be a lot higher than 15 years it'll be a lot higher in 25 years what you're doing next one or two years i don't have any idea and if somebody in this room knows about it they're not telling anybody or they're not in this room they're down and um spraying something you know they've made a billion dollars or they know about interest rates there's an interest rate you can be right five times a row and ten grand you can have two billion there's not that many people with two billion there's a lot of people predicting interest rates do you ever think about that one yeah just five times right around ten grand two billion it's uh if you write sometimes well you can have a gmp of you know the united kingdom you know it's a big number uh so i don't worry about that i know we've had uh 96 years a century and the market's fallen 53 times we've got 53 declines of 10 or more so 53 declines in 96 years once every two years we have 10 decline with the 53 declines 15 1-5 have been 25 percent more so 15 and 96 years but once every six years the market falls 25 more that's what we call a bear market you know you know that and it's gonna happen i don't care when it's gonna happen i would love to know obviously it'll be very useful to know when to happen it doesn't make difference to me quarterbacks be a lot higher eight years now a lot higher 16 years now a lot higher 30 years now that's what i deal with i'll be glad to answer your questions it's great uh enjoyed it and uh want to start the questions okay so just to round it out like peter lynch was saying you know you can definitely ignore anybody's predictions out there but i think the real key takeaway here is that when something is moving in a direction whether it's oil gas your stock of the day you can get on at any point in time but just know when you're going to get off and as long as you have that strategy in place you're going to be good to go that's not coming from me that's coming from peter lynch i mean he called in it was a big deal i was like hey i gotta work into the schedule but now really uh i love these videos i i think this is super useful and if you think this is useful smash the like button and subscribe and share and uh make sure you come back for the next episode okay
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