저자: Scott'sStockDueDiligence · 외국인
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엔비디아의 DCF 모델 분석 결과 내재가치 약 140달러 대비 주가 355달러로 약 155% 고평가, 모델상 매도 판단. 주가는 공급·수요와 기대에 의해 움직이므로 재무만으로 설명되지 않는다고 주장. P/E 78, P/S 20 이상, P/B 18 등 밸류에이션 지표가 고평가를 시사. 인텔과 비교 시 인텔이 여러 지표에서 우위이며 엔비디아는 투자 매력이 낮다고 결론.
다듬은 글
let's take a look at in the video and see if we could find out if the company is a good value or not first we need to market cap and we'll put that into the model 219 point 4 billion and then the stock price of three five six spot a and now the shares outstanding is just a market cap divided by the stock price that gives you 615 million shares outstanding and to calculate the intrinsic value of the stock is we estimate the future free cash flows of a company then discount those numbers back to today's value that way we have the value of the entire company then we take that number and divide it by the shares outstanding that's six hundred and fifteen million and that gives us the intrinsic stock price and we're going to be compare it to the actual stock price to see if it's a buy or a sell so let's get to the actual free cash flows for the company because that needs to go into the model so we'll go to the finance section of Yahoo and then go to cash flows and then pull the free cash flows for the past four years and Kent and free cash flow is the cash that's remaining after operating a business so if you have positive cash that means you're adding value to your investors your operating business then adding cash to your balance sheet net income we also need for the model and that's your profit or loss for a given time period but we don't forecast net income because net income has a lot of non-cash items in it so it's not good for forecasting purposes but cash flow is and next is total revenue that's just a sales for a given time frame so there's no negative numbers which is good because sometimes when you have negative numbers it makes it really hard to value the company because the way you value a company is you have to look at previous numbers in order to forecast a future so let's figure out the capital structured in the video and we need to first get the interest expense that's the interest they paying a debt that's fifty two million dollars and now let's go to the balance sheet to see how much liabilities they have so they have no current long-term debt is 1.9 billion so they have they pay two point six one percent interest on their debt interest is tax deductible so let's find out their effective tax rate so we can deduct the interest payments so it's kind of hard to get a good read because we're looking for the income before tax and the income tax and if they have a negative income tax that means they got a refund that year so we can use that one so it looks like the best one is 2017 so 1.9 billion the income they made and they paid 239 million in taxes so they paid about 13% of taxes so the cost of the debt is 2.3 percent and they only have one percent of debt in a capital structure that's really good you want a little a little debt less the better generally but then 1% is great so let's find out the beta because we want to see the volatility of a stock so we could calculate the cost of equity and it's a pretty high beta 2.03 that means it moves twice as the market moves so you generally don't want a volatile stock it does increase your weighted average cost of capital so the whack the way we calculated is a blend of the cost of equity and the cost of debt you can see the cost of equity is so high it's almost 18% the course of debt is 2.3 percent so much lower because debt is is a lot safer than equity because in the event of a default debt holders are paid before equity holders and also debt holders get a guaranteed interest payment where equity holders may get a dividend they may not so the whack is what we're get a discounted cash flows by it's about 18% so we're going to discount the expected future cash flow we got that for four years and then we did a terminal value which is all years past year four and we discounted those numbers back to today we got to value the company of 86 billion dollars and we divide that by six hundred and fifteen million shares we're gonna intrinsic stock price of one hundred and forty dollars so it's trading it at a hundred and fifty five percent premium it's trading more than double what the calculated stock price is and so definitely a sell according to the model you can see the historical chart and let's see how that stock actually traded the past few years if it was trading above or below intrinsic so we know it's at about 350 so it looks like it was trading much closer to intrinsic value around 150 a year ago but it really shut up even during coronavirus it's been going up dramatically so that just means people are willing to pay more for this company more than it's worth because they see the future of the company better than the financials indicate so when more and more people want to buy a stock it really pushes the price of stock higher and higher so a lot of people think a stock price is based off of the financials and what a company's worth it's not it's based off of supply and demand of the market that's what indicates stock price financials may help or hurt a stock price but it's just it's not it's not the real result of a stock price so people need to keep that in mind and and that's more evident with companies that are losing money year after year but you have to start prices keep going higher and higher like Tesla so let's get looking into the ratios we'll get a little more color on a company and I gotta go back to the balance sheet to get some information in order to calculate some of the ratios so let's go to the balance sheet let's get the current assets and that's a thirteen and a half billion that's assets that can be converted to cash within 12 months that's why they call it current and current liabilities are liabilities that are due within 12 months and stockholders equity is a total assets minus total liabilities and that's like the value of the company according to the balance sheet well they have a crazy high current ratio so their numbers look really really bad a p/e is one of the most common ratios that's price of the stock over earnings per share earnings per share is net income over shares outstanding and I look for 15 or lower when I invest in a company because I want to value a company I don't want a company that doesn't give me any value that I'm hoping the future gives me value I want them to prove their worth it now and when it's 78 that's like saying the vessels are paying $78 for $1 of profit so this could be because they're in a growth mode growing a company and that could happen with with either newer companies or companies that are actively trying to grow their business and invest so it's not a good sign so far let's see the price over sales sometimes people use that if a company has a p/e that doesn't really work and that I look for under 2.2 that's the stock price over the sales per share and that's over 20 so this is an overvalued stock according to these ratios so far the price-to-book ratio is the price of the stock over the book value per share remember the book value is the equity is the assets minus liabilities and eighteen just indicates it's really a weak company according to its balance sheet it's possible the assets if you look at the assets you might get more color on this but step that's definitely a really high number and they have a current ratio of over seven and a half you want a generally a current ratio between one point two and two current ratio is how you can fund your short term liabilities so we stick current assets are our cash and accounts receivable and inventory and those can other three assets that can be converted to cash pretty easily so if you need a cash to pay debt or to pay your payables that's how you would get it under one is really bad but having too high or current ratio indicates they did they just have a lot of cash or a lot of inventory or receivables that they're sitting on and we don't we don't invest a company so they just sit on on cash or sit on money that's due to them we investing companies that can generate a profit so that's that's not a good sign either our willy they have a good ROA 23% we want your are we above 20% that's how they're using their the equity funding how efficient they are in generating business from the equity so when you look at these ratios you want to compare a company over several quarters to see how it changes also you also want to compare it to similar companies companies in your sector like you wouldn't want to you can't really compare it to McDonald's because because maybe the fast-food industry has a p/e ratio of I'm just making it up twenty that's a good peer a shio but for a company like nvidia thirty may be a good p/e ratio so you have to characters similar companies and fortunately I did a discounted cash flow model for Intel which is their competitor so the more DCF models I do the more information I have to provide on videos so I'm comparing Intel which is IO TC and the videos ratios and the winner web is a better ratio you can see Intel has the great p/e I prefer under 15 but 50-point H fine the price of sales isn't great but it's so much better than the video the price to book is much better it's interesting that current ratio is under 1 so that indicates they're going to go into debt this year in order to fund their current receivables unless they're going to have a windfall of cash come in or a lot of new business come in over the next few months that is possible but um so I guess in the video wins the current ratio war so to speak Intel has a better ROI but they're really close and NVIDIA wins in debt they only have 1 percent of the capital structure it's bad but Intel has ten percent but if you think about it Intel is using its money wisely so that isn't bad it's kind of like if you take a mortgage to buy a home that's good debt because you you have an asset now if you take a loan to go and buy a car or go on vacation that's bad debt so so dad doesn't have to be bad it's how you use the debt and you don't want too much of it so 10 percent isn't bad so they're probably using it smartly because you can tell what their ratio so Intel according to the ratios looks like a buy in the video does not look like a buy and even according to the DCF models Nvidia is definitely not a body but let me know in the comments what you think if you have any other ideas of ratios I need to look at or other businesses you think would be good for this type of analysis thanks for watching
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