저자: Scott · 외국인
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반도체 5개 기업(TSMC, 브로드컴, 인텔, TI, 퀄컴)을 DCF 모형으로 밸류에이션. TSMC는 할인율 8.3% 기준 적정가 62달러로 현재가 91달러 대비 고평가(매도), 브로드컴·퀄컴·인텔은 저평가(매수), TI는 고평가(매도)로 제시. 인텔은 매출 성장이 정체되어 주가 상승이 더딘 이유로 지목. 모형 결과는 단기 주가 예측이 아니며 장기 관점의 밸류에이션이라고 강조.
다듬은 글
welcome to my channel i'm scott and in this video we're gonna value five semiconductor companies the first ticker we're going to look at is taiwan semiconductor then broadcom third is intel the next company is texas instruments and the last is qualcomm semiconductors are found in thousands of products such as cars computers phones etc semiconductor chips and wafers have greatly advanced communications computing healthcare military systems transportation clean energy and countless other applications companies like nvidia amd and qualcomm are fabulous meaning they outsource chip manufacturing taiwan semiconductor is an example of a foundry foundries manufacture chips for other companies like nvidia some companies do both like intel let's get started with the model the first company we're going to look at is taiwan semiconductor they are the largest semiconductor company in the world nvidia was the largest a few months ago now taiwan semiconductor is back on top their market cap is 470 billion they're trading at 91 dollars a share and they have 5.2 billion shares outstanding of the five companies we're looking at this is the only non-us company so i converted their financials to us dollars let's look at their financials the way you value a company is you estimate the free cash flows into the future and then you discount those numbers back to today's value that's what we're doing in this video and free cash flow is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures so you can see they have lots of free cash flow peaked in 2020 at 10.2 billion in 2021 it was close to 9 billion free cash flow is the cash that's remaining for you the investor so a company can do four things with it they could pay a dividend or buy back stock that's a way to reward investors they can pay down debt or they can invest the money back into the business to grow it they could acquire other companies open up more factories and some companies do all four pay a dividend buy back stock invest back into the business or pay down debt net income is the profit or loss on the income statement it's revenue minus expenses and that peaks in 2021 at 20 billion revenue is a sales for the company and that grows a lot 35 billion of 54 billion a really important part of the dcf model is the whack weighted average cost of capital or discount rate this is the rate we discount the future free cash flows and fin box range is 7.8 to eight point eight percent i use the middle whack for all five companies in this video so eight point three percent is the discount rate we're going to apply to the future cash flows we estimated four years of future free cash flows we also estimated the terminal value which is all cash flows past year four that's 368 billion we discounted those numbers back to today using the weighted average cost of capital we get a value of the company of 323 billion dollars we divide that by 5.2 billion shares and we get a calculated stock price of 62.
they're trading at 91 so the trading at a 45 premium it's a sell according to the model companies usually provide revenue and earnings forecasts their revenue forecasts in 2024 is 2.8 trillion new taiwan dollars that equals 95 billion dollars the revenue forecast for 2023 is 82 billion for 2022 with 71 billion so the expected growth is pretty dramatic over the next few years i continued a similar growth into 2025 so i get 109 billion now i need to convert this revenue into free cash flow on average in the past four years they converted nineteen percent of their revenue into free cash flow to calculate nineteen percent you can just sum up these four free cash flow numbers and divide by the sum of these four revenue numbers so that's how i got their future free cash flows and these numbers are a lot bigger than their prior free cash flows and the stock still seems overvalued but just because the stock is overvalued doesn't mean it won't go up on the flip side if a stock is undervalued that doesn't mean it won't go down the stock price is based off a supply and demand of the market nobody can predict the stock price in the short term in the long term it's much more predictable companies that make a lot of money go up in the long term companies that lose a lot of money go down in the long term a company can lose a lot of money year after year and their stock price goes up only in the short term if they keep losing money at some point the stock will come down the website simply wall street values the company at 157 they're saying it's 44 undervalued three analysts priced this stock and the average price target is 120 the lowest 115 the highest 125.
the next company we're going to look at is broadcom this is a large cap company market cap 238 billion they're trading at 584 share and they have 408 million shares outstanding their free cash flow grows a lot from 9.3 billion up to close to 14 billion in the trailing 12 months their profit or loss net income grows from 2.7 billion up to close to 8 billion but their revenue isn't growing as much as their net income and free cash flow their revenue went from 23 billion up to 28 and a half billion i use the middle whack on finbox 7.8 percent and that's a discount rate we're gonna apply to the future cash flows we estimated four years of future free cash flows we also estimated the terminal value which is all cash flows past year four that's 302 billion we discounted those numbers back to today using the weighted average cost of capital we get a value of the company of 272 billion dollars we divide that by 408 million shares and we get the devil 666 as a stock price they're trading at 584 so the trading at a 12 discount it's a buy according to the model the company's revenue forecast in 2024 it's 35.2 billion 2023 is 34 billion 2022 it's 32 billion and i continued that growth into 2025 and i got 36.5 billion they convert 47 of their revenue into free cash flow so i multiplied their future revenue estimates by 47 that's how i got their future free cash flows the website simply wall street values the company at 913 they're saying it's 37 undervalued 12 analysts priced this stock and the average price target is 712 the lowest 657 the is 7.75 now we're going to look at my favorite semiconductor company intel this is a large cap company 179 billion market cap they're trading at 44 a share and they have 4.1 billion shares outstanding their free cash flow doesn't look so good it goes from 17 billion down to 10 billion their net income does peak in a trailing 12 months at almost 25 billion and they generate more revenue than any other semiconductor company but it's been pretty flat the past couple years they're close to 78 billion i gave them the middle whack on finbox nine percent and that's the discount rate we're gonna apply to the future cash flows we estimated four years of future free cash flows we also estimated the terminal value which is all cash flows past year four that's 295 billion we discounted those numbers back to today's new weighted average cost of capital we get a value of the company of 265 billion dollars we divide that by 4.1 billion shares and we get a calculated stock price of 65 at trading at 44 so the trading at a 33 discount it's a buy according to the model their 2024 revenue target is 84 billion 2023 is 78 billion and 2022 is 76 billion and my estimate for 2025 is 89 billion they convert on average 19 of their revenue into free cash flow so i multiplied their future revenue estimates by 19 that's how i got their future free cash flows simply wall street is really high on this one 246 they're saying it's 83 undervalued 27 analysts priced this stock and the average price target is 51 the lowest 40 the highest 62.
the next semiconductor company we're going to look at is texas instruments this is a large cap company 156 billion market cap they're trading at 170 a share and they have 922 million shares outstanding their free cash flow is pretty steady from 5.8 billion to 6.5 billion net income the profitable loss grows each year from 5 billion to 8.2 billion and their revenue grew a decent amount from fourteen point four billion to nineteen billion i gave them the middle whack on fem box seven point eight percent and that's a discount rate we're gonna apply to the future cash flows we estimated four years of future free cash flows we also estimated a terminal value which is all cash flows past year four that's 138 billion we discounted those numbers back to today's weighted average cost of capital we get a value of the company of 124 billion dollars we divide that by 922 million shares and we get a calculated stock price of 135 the trading at 170 so the trading at a 26 premium it's a sell according to the model their revenue target for 2024 is 20.7 billion for 2023 it's 20 billion and for 2022 is 19.3 billion and i forecasted their revenue to be 21.4 billion in 2025.
they convert on average 36 percent of their revenue into free cash flow so i multiplied their future revenue estimates by 36 percent that's how i got their future free cash flows simply wall street's valuation is 133 they're saying it's 25 overvalued almost all stocks are severely undervalued according to simply wall street not with this one 18 analysts price this stock and the average price target is 188 the lowest 150 the highest 230.
the last semiconductor company we're going to look at is qualcomm this is a large cap company 152 billion market cap they're trading at 135 a share and they have 1.1 billion shares outstanding their free cash flow peaked in 2021 at 8.6 billion it was half that in 2020 at 4.4 billion net income looks really good it grows a lot from 4.4 billion to over 11 billion revenue looks pretty good as well 24 billion up to 39 billion and once again i gave the middle whack on finbox 7.8 percent and that's the discount rate we're gonna apply to the future cash flows we estimated four years of future free cash flows we also estimated a terminal value which is all cash flows past year four that's 194 billion we discounted those numbers back to today's new weighted average cost of capital we get a value of the company of 176 billion dollars we divide that by 1.1 billion shares and we get a calculated stock price of 157 the trading at 135 so the trading at a 14 discount it's a buy according to the model their revenue target in 2024 is 49 billion 2023 is 48 billion and 2022 is 44.5 billion and my estimate for 2025 is close to 50 billion they convert on average 22 of their revenue into free cash flow so i multiplied their future revenue estimates by 22 that's how i got their future free cash flows simply wall street valuation is 256 they're saying it's 49 undervalued 19 analysts priced this stock and the average price target is 192.
the low is 150 the high is 250. there are 66 companies that trade in the united states in the industry semiconductors taiwan is the largest at 470 billion the reason i didn't do nvidia is because i did a full video of them last month broadcom is the third largest at 238 billion then intel texas instruments and qualcomm foundries spend a lot on capex you can see taiwan semiconductor spends a lot because they actually manufacture the chips so they have to buy expensive machinery and warehouses intel does a lot of manufacturing as well that's why their capex is so high broadcom is the most leveraged their debt to equity ratio is 1.7 so for every dollar of equity they have one dollar and 70 cents of debt the least leveraged is taiwan semiconductor intel looks good as well they all pay a good dividend intel pays the highest at 3.3 percent the lowest of the five is taiwan semiconductor broadcom generates the most free cash flow of the five companies we looked at then intel texas instruments is lowest intel by far has the best ratios they have a pe of 7.3 price to free cash flow of 18 although broadcom has a better price to free cash flow and their price of sales is the best at 2.3 taiwan semiconductor is only better than average in pe they're worse than average in price to book price to free cash flow and price of sales qualcomm has pretty good ratios they're better than average in three out of four intel generates more revenue than any other semiconductor company almost 78 billion the lowest of the five companies we looked at was texas instruments the reason intel stock isn't going up as much as it should is because look at their annual growth rate it's only three percent in the past three years taiwan and qualcomm are pretty high amd has the highest of all the semiconductors than nvidia and all five companies we looked at have a really good roa in roe roa is net income over assets it's how well the company uses assets to generate a profit roe is net income over equity it's how well the company uses his equity to generate a profit so to summarize my model says two companies are trading at a premium taiwan semiconductor and texas instruments and three companies are trading at a discount broadcom qualcomm and the biggest discount is intel so let me know what you think give this video like subscribe or comment below also if you like to get a custom valuation or just support the channel you can become a member by clicking on the link in description below thanks for watching
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