저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 미국은 러시아 등 비민주 산유국 에너지 의존에서 벗어나야 하며, 태양광+배터리 중심 분산형 전력망에 약 2.1조 달러를 투입하는 것이 해법이다. [문제 진단] 미국 에너지 정책은 셰일 규제·재생에너지 인센티브 축소·노후 송전망 방치로 붕괴 상태이며, 사우디·UAE 등 가치관이 다른 국가에 의존하고 있다. 과거 셰일가스 개발 후 환경 규제로 생산이 축소됐고, 원전 폐쇄 압력과 월가의 부채 중심 투자가 전력 인프라 현대화를 막았다. [위기 근거] 일부 미국 도시 휘발유가 갤런당 최대 5달러까지 오를 수 있으며, 과거 에너지 급등기에는 경기침체가 뒤따랐다(2008년 예시). 2021년 텍사스 정전으로 수백 명 사망, 약 2000억 달러 재산피해가 발생했다. [태양광 해법] 주택용 태양광+배터리는 가정을 독립형 미니 전력사로 만들며, 미국 주택의 약 70%에 적용 가능하다고 주장. 미국 전력 부문은 온실가스의 27%를 차지하므로 태양광 전환은 탈탄소와 교통·건물 부문 파급 효과도 낳는다. 현재 태양광 보급률은 4% 미만이며 주택 한 채당 2.5~3만 달러 비용이 장벽이다. [사업 구조 및 수치] 주택 태양광 업체는 사실상 건설사여서 마진이 낮고 금융상품 판매에 의존한다. 소프트코스트를 제거하면 소프트웨어형 사업이 가능해 팔란티어 수준(80% 총이익률)도 언급. 규모의 경제로 가격이 내려가면 채택이 늘어난다는 논리. 2.1조 달러 투입 시 대규모 제조·설치 일자리 창출을 주장. [출연자 입장 및 전망] 발언자는 아이디어 자체는 나쁘지 않다고 보나, 인플레이션 시기 2.1조 달러 재정 투입은 부적절하다는 입장. 정부 보조금 없이는 전환이 어렵고 테슬라 사례를 들어 정책적 인센티브 필요성을 강조. 석유가 2055년 전후 고갈된다는 전제 아래 지금 전환을 시작해야 한다고 주장. 해당 영상 설명상 Palmetto 관련 투자 이해관계가 있음. [리스크·조건] 정부 지출 방식(자유시장 vs 정부 주도)에 대한 명확한 결론은 유보. 인플레이션 통제 전 대규모 재정 투입은 부담.
다듬은 글
everybody welcome back to the channel chamoth poly hapatia is a billionaire he is the fund manager and the ceo of social capital which is this basically venture capital firm that tries to invest in the biggest ideas in the world he is a part owner of the golden state warriors and overall a public figure that is well known in the investing and finance community now chamath is someone who really tries to invest in big ideas and when he means when i mean big ideas i mean he tries to think outside of the box and try to get people and tries to get people to really think of the world in a fundamentally different way i don't know if i would call him visionary but i definitely think chamath would see himself as visionary based upon the statements and public things that he has said one of the things he's very passionate about is climate change and one of the solutions that he put out today in a new letter that he put out in his blog really got me thinking about how he thinks about climate change how he thinks about the business potential of solving climate change and ultimately given the russia ukraine crisis how he sees american energy independence now before we get into that letter chamath has been destroyed in the media because he is basically referred to as the king of spax and as a result of being referred to as the king of spax which are special purpose acquisition companies that go public in a different way not through an ipo or a dpo basically the person who leads the spac funding gets a percentage of the fee of bringing the money to come together in this blank check company and it's a it's sort of a little bit of a different way of investing it's been around for a while but he made it really popular and pretty much all the space that he hyped up are down significantly and a lot of people lost a lot of money because in february 2021 when the market was crazy a lot of people were investing in these highly speculative assets like spax clover health which these are some examples of specs so he's been getting destroyed in the media but one of the solutions he brought up today is really interesting and i wanted to read through it and sort of understand and give my perspective and also understand what or also ask what you guys think of it the cure to america's energy woes is staring us in the face why solar is the obvious answer to immediate energy security so let's read through this a little bit and then let's talk about what he's uh what argument he's going for so this is written by chamoth and chris kemper chris kemper is the ceo of a solar energy company uh which kind of gives you a hint of why they are articulating this argument but i think this argument has some credibility america's energy policy is broken what may have been obvious to a few people just weeks ago has now been laid bare for all americans by blocking the expansion of domestic oil and natural gas threatening to roll back incentives for solar and insufficiently demanding utilities to upgrade their decrept grid infrastructure america yet again finds itself energy dependent on a group of actors that includes the like of russia saudi arabia qatar with talks about in venezuela and iran to the mix he's mentioning the fact that we don't have energy policy we don't have energy independence so we're relying on all these other actors that we tend to not agree with philosophically from a human rights perspective to make matters worse leaders of saudi arabia in the uae recently declined requests to speak with president biden citing american policy in the middle east are these the countries we want to rely on for our most precious resources a resource that directly impacts our productivity and comfort the obvious answer is no americans will pay the price until we fix it by some accounts many u.s cities could see sustained average gas prices of up to five dollars per gallon beyond the immediate impact to consumer spending and consumer confidence history has shown that when energy spikes by this magnitude in such a short order the u.s economy typically enters in a recession and he is absolutely correct about that 2008 is the best example how did the most sophisticated economy in the world find itself in such a vulnerable position and what can we do about it and to be honest before we continue that does make me annoyed the fact that the united states is the greatest democracy and economy in the world and we are so reliant on these third uh these third parties that really do not vibe with us philosophically from just a democracy perspective and you know the way they treat their citizens it's like it kind of sucks that we're in this position and there is some reasons why and let's talk about why a problem decades in the making after the gulf war the u.s took deliberate measures to reduce our dependence on foreign oil in large part this resulted in tapping america's substantial shale reserves to extract natural gas from the earth via process known as fracking for a while domestic shale received its purpose but but like the burning of other fossil fuels it comes with a range of negative environmental externalities these are things that happen that you didn't expect would happen as a result of doing something that's the nature of what an externality is this caused both the us government and capital markets to run headfirst into a set of environmental priorities that quickly made shale an unsustainable long-term solution while this was a laudable outcome in the context of climate change it came without a strategy to replace this lost energy supply meanwhile america's utilities were also playing their part by bowing to uninformed and unscientific bullying about the evils of nuclear energy they ran to decommission our nuclear energy capability which data shows is actually cleaner and safer than any hydrocarbon basically saying that american utilities and the sort of climate change agenda destroyed our ability to actually create cleaner and safe energy because of political priorities at the same time the capital markets reinforced a myopic focus on the present because the operating model for public and investor-owned utilities requires heavy capital expenditures wall street riddled our utilities with massive debt making massive debt making it incredibly difficult to be profitable let alone be able to invest and modernize multi-decade-old infrastructure in california this aging infrastructure has been found responsible for climate catastrophes like wildfires that have ravaged millions of hectares across the state while also releasing enormous amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and this is the wildfire problem that we're seeing in california but who suffers the most from this combination of negligence profiteering and incompetence american families they are the ones left to cope with rising energy bills rolling blackouts delirious air quality energy indebtedness exacerbated climate change and the worst cases the tragic loss of property and loved ones which is what we saw in texas when their energy grid kind of failed in march of 2021 when it was um snowing so in this other another global energy crisis america is faced with yet another critical decision do we invest in restarting our domestic oil and natural gas capacities or do we rethink our approach and pursue a clean energy security strategy that can stand the test of time so before we continue into that letter that is the overall thesis of the argument in terms of the problem so when the way he structured this letter is like all right there is uniqueness around what's happening in the status quo and in the status quo there is a unique problem that is happening that unique problem is that america is too reliant on other energy uh uh other other energy independent countries that don't agree with us on a whole race a whole host of issues but we have to depend on them because where are we gonna get energy from and you need energy to do everything i just took a drive to dunkin donuts i needed gas to go to dunkin donuts like energy is inevitable we need energy so the reason we've been working with russia for so long is because they were giving us a good deal on energy and we were and europe was happy to take 50 of their energy from russia what we've seen from a geopolitical perspective is that doesn't work anymore because at this point when russia wants to do something that is unacceptable to most of the international community and i say most for a reason at that point we have to stop cutting off our dependence on them because if we keep our dependence on them their values will over determine and impose our ability our meeting like democratic countries to do anything meaningful because they control the basis for our economies to survive which is energy energy is that basis so his argument is like we cannot continue with the same paradigm of values that we have associated when it comes with energy which is like let's just get the cheapest energy let's not be energy independent for whatever political reasons we don't want to feel like saying because fracking is a dirty word and let's borrow from other nations because that somehow is more acceptable so what's the solution the solution is staring us in the face fortunately we have an already obvious solution and it's staring us right in the face literally solar energy is clean and limited and readily available naysayers may claim that the sun only shines half today but these perceptions are no longer prohibited solar is just one part of the clean technology value chain that can transform the energy landscape by integrating a on-site battery storage it is available for all solar-powered homes to operate independent of the grid and he's talking about the energy grid this combination makes solar a viable option for 70 of american households importantly under this model an individual home or neighborhood becomes its own mini utility and is no longer relying on a failing electric grid for example if solar had been in place during the 2021 texas power crisis we could have potentially avoided statewide outages that led to hundreds of deaths and approximately 200 billion dollars in property damage it's also worth noting that a decentralized solar grid would do absolutely wonders for the climate and i agree with him on this point very deeply today the u.s power sectors account for 27 of us gas emissions a mass transition to solar would not only significantly decarbonize our power grid that's really good but it would enable other sectors to decarbonize as well such transport and commercial buildings which are huge elements of greenhouse gas emissions if all of our residential uh houses in the united states which are hundreds of millions of houses change to solar energy it would create incentives structures jobs all these different things for other industries to also be able to convert which would essentially have like spillover effects on how u.s u.s green u.s green greenhouse gas emissions are implemented despite these clear benefits solar is utilizing less than four percent of u.s homes and a major reason has been the cost the average residential solar system runs between 25 and 30 grand that's why it's pretty expensive and that's why i don't have solar as well because my parents can't afford 25 grand to decarbonize our our electricity uh a big contributor to the sol to the cost problem the solar are the solar companies themselves residential solar providers are more or less construction companies some of their biggest expenses items are the panels and labors which means they're highly levered in low margin in order to be profitable many of them have resorted to selling financing products to customers almost like car dealerships right if you're not making a profit off the car because cars are typically low margin um unless you're like tesla i think they have a 30 margin then you have to sell financing products which is like pay me in interest rates so like you know for every car you sell you make a thousand dollars after five years from the interest rate so if you sell 50 cars in a month you made 50 000 that's kind of like the model neither of these business models scale efficiently making mass adoption costs restrictive but the residential solar model doesn't need to exist this way by isolating and removing many of the soft costs a solar power company can operate akin to a software business and as a result provide a cheaper product to consumers so he's saying that there's a gross margin that could be associated with solar very similar to companies like palantir that have 80 gross margins uh then he puts a disclaimer palmetto operates a distributed model and claims to be less expensive than competitors which is the ceo that also wrote this article makes solar affordable for everyone whether smartphones or electric vehicles history shows that for any product as prices go down adoption goes up but time is not a luxury we can afford particularly with weight with wars being waged and climate change proceeding at an unrelenting rate he's talking about economies of scale so when you have a lot of a product and mo and a lot of people want it the cost to produce it becomes extremely cheap and as a result of that the cost to buy it also becomes significantly cheaper so why not make the biggest infrastructure investment of our time to achieve energy security this is his solution assuming the high end of 30 000 per household for solar panels and battery storage uh it would cost 2.1 trillion dollars for the us government to fund residential solar across the country so he wants the entire u.s federal government to skip the sort of build back better america plan that um the biden has and put two trillion into just getting the entire energy grid in the united states to be solar taking it one step further the federal government could also direct hundreds of billions towards the manufacturing of the panels themselves uh transforming a no-lacent industry into a domestic powerhouse that that would create a lot of jobs in other words roughly the same amount of president biden's build back better package america will be completely energy independent and nearly every household will get energy for almost free not to mention the millions of jobs that we've created from domestic manufacturing to sales to installation to maintenance the bottom line is that we can no longer wait for the perfect solution the right solution is here and while we implement solar over the coming years we can refocus future capital investment on the next leap in energy technology now it's important to understand that uh chris klemper the ceo of palmetto if we go to their website right here uh here's their website obviously this letter is going to be beneficial to them because let's say biden reads this and he's like that's it we got to put 2 trillion into solar energy solar panels everyone's got to go solar companies that produce solar panels company that companies that provide the financing for that companies that provide the marketing and sales for that companies that do the end-to-end solutions i mean companies like palmetto that do all these services panel cleaning past abandonment removal reinstallation battery storage installation maintenance and repair troubleshooting these guys will make a lot of money which means um chamath as an investor will make a lot of money as well so as you can see on this website there's a bunch of different services that they ultimately offer and their whole goal obviously is to transition the world into a solar power world now here are my overall thoughts i think this is not the worst idea in the world the federal government's spending two trillion that in an inflationary time is probably not the best idea it's why it's good we probably haven't passed a buildback better plan until we get uh inflation under control but nonetheless like america doing something proactively to transition us from a carbon-based economy that is essentially relying on other countries to be able to do anything we want to do in the first place into a solar-based economy where that would create hundreds of thousands of jobs honestly millions of jobs and would would allow us the incentive to potentially decarbonize other industries that is a good thing in my opinion the question is how we get there do we let the free markets do it do we let the government impose this 2.1 trillion i mean at some level with solar energy because oil and gas has such a mainstay on uh how people are consuming energy and the sort of business incentives that are there it is very difficult without governmental subsidies to be able to incentivize this type of transition i mean this is the whole reason why tesla was able to like be afloat for four or five years right they were able to get governmental subsidies because there were regulations in place that electric vehicles should be able to transition from ice vehicles so ice manufacturers had to pay tesla every time that they were selling cars and like that was good for tesla i think the same thing would have to happen if we want to see any type of real transition over time uh in the context of energy to become scalable and to become independent from other nations i think the overall elements of this and again i don't know if the government should do it i don't know if it should be the free market but i do think the heart of the idea is that we have to stop relying on other countries and you can't just do fracking and natural oil gas reserves and rely on other countries because those will run out eventually like we're at the point of humanity where there needs to be a new paradigm of values that creates a different solution for how we understand energy how we understand the critical solutions that energy depends on and how we understand the role of average human beings in in this country contributing to the environment and if we can decrease the amount of carbon footprint that each individual has because when they go into their work commercial building it's powered by solar when they go home it's powered by solar or it's powered by nuclear it's powered by some type of renewable energy source that is is able to be stored via an energy storage service and a lot of that technology is being created right now in fact pound you're invested in one of those services which i'm going to do a video on soon it seems like it's the right time to at least begin that transition because if we don't do it i mean i don't know what generation is going to do it and oil by old estimates we're running out of it by 2055 something like not 20 55.
we have 48 years so 48 from whatever 2060 2070 around that area uh we're gonna be running out of it and if you don't believe me you can just google that as a fact we don't have that much oil left so we're gonna have to do something about it the question is what do we do and the question is what is the best solution and this is chamat's polyhapatea's solution to what we can do about it let me know your thoughts in the comments what do you think should we actually reduce our dependence on other countries and should we impose 2.1 trillion of spending to completely make america solar i mean your thoughts looking forward to reading them i'll see you guys in the next one
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