Chamath Palihapitiya Predicted The Best Trade Before The Stock Market Crash

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결론: 구글 롱·페이스북 숏 스프레드 트레이드는 장기 우위 논리로 제시되며, 페이스북은 리스크가 크다는 판단. 스프레드 트레이드 개념: 대형 기술주 하나를 사고 다른 하나를 공매도해 시장 전체 리스크를 상쇄하는 방식. 시장이 하락해도 두 종목의 낙폭 차이만 손익으로 남는다는 설명. Chamath의 논리: 구글은 플랫폼 기업이며 애플에 연간 약 150~180억 달러를 지불하는 기본 검색 파트너라 애플의 정책 변화에 덜 노출됨. 페이스북은 iOS 생태계 안의 앱이라 애플 정책에 취약. 페이스북 리스크 3가지: ① 틱톡 등 숏폼 영상 경쟁 심화로 사용 시간 정체·감소 ② 애플 IDFA 변경으로 2022년 약 100억 달러 광고 매출 영향 ③ 규제 리스크로 인수합병을 통한 성장 제약. 다만 시가총액 하락으로 향후 인수 여력은 생길 수 있다는 견해. 구글 성장 근거: 유튜브의 영상 소비 장악, 검색 수요의 지속성, 안드로이드 기반으로 인터넷 미접속 30억 인구가 페이스북보다 먼저 구글·유튜브에 접근할 가능성. 발언자 Amit 본인은 페이스북 약 10주를 보유 중이며 추가 매수 고려 중이라고 밝힘. 구글 신규 진입 가능성 언급. 조건/리스크: 스프레드 트레이드도 두 종목 상대 성과가 어긋나면 손실 가능. 영상 시점은 2022년 초로 이후 시장 상황과 무관하게 해석 필요. 출연자 전망: 구글 상대 우위 지속, 페이스북은 구조적 역풍 존재.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. everybody welcome back to the channel we have seen big tech go crazy over the past couple weeks with earnings google popped up facebook went down facebook lost 250 billion dollars in market cap google went from around 2 700 down to 3 000. now google has backed down a little bit but google at least did not lose 250 billion dollars in market cap because that would have been a little bit crazy chamath polyhapathia is a billionaire he is on the olin podcast he owns the warriors does a lot of spac deals you can say a lot of stuff about him good or bad he called this trade a couple of weeks ago or i think a month ago and we're going to analyze today how he called the straight and what his logic was for going long google and short companies like facebook now disclosure i am long facebook i have about 10 shares of facebook at an average around 3 30.

02. so i'm down a thousand bucks right now um i bought it before earnings because i thought facebook is incredibly undervalued and if i thought facebook was undervalued then you must know how i feel about facebook being undervalued now however my conviction with facebook has been struggling a bit i'm not selling my position and in fact i'm getting ready to buy the dip but i'm trying to understand a lot more about why i think facebook has potential upside when you listen to someone like chamoth doc he definitely challenges your conviction a lot in terms of the logic that he comes up with uh for facebook so i'll do a video in the future on how i'm thinking about facebook and my overall thoughts but in this video we're going to analyze what the logic is for what he calls is the greatest spread trade of his life to be long one stock and short the other and that's kind of the nature of a spread trade and in this case he's going along google which means he's betting google is going to work google's going to win google's going to be the the stock that appreciates in value when it comes to big tech and facebook is not going to be a winner when it comes to the next five six years let's get into it i think that the google long netflix short play is the right play i think the best trade on the best trade on the internet the most obvious simple money making trade is long microsoft google short big tech short the rest of the big tech short ibm short netflix no no no no no sure short i don't know meaning you can you can very comfortably short apple facebook amazon netflix and be long microsoft google so as a spread trade right right it's the most it's the best risk parity trade on the internet right now i mean period in the markets can you explain explain a spreadsheet so look look i i tweeted this a while ago but it's like and and again the i i think like well let me be constructive and say the people on twitter that respond to these treads are not totally stupid although i think they're kind of idiotic um i said you know here's how you can effectively you know i i said something about you know big tech and i said i can comfortably put my short on and i'm kind of trolling people when i do that because i'm not telling them the full trade and the real trade whenever you put anything on in my opinion is all about managing risk and the best thing about the internet and the stock market is that you know when you're betting on internet stocks you don't necessarily have to be naked long or naked short which comes with a lot more risk than if your long one security and short another against it so for example over the last 10 years you would have made a lot of money by being long amazon and short a basket of traditional commerce companies offline commerce i'm going to make up a basket but macy's jcpenney you know kmart sears right so if you're short those and long amazon that's what's called a spread trade you're basically playing the gap between your longs and your shorts it's independent of where the market generally trades it's one of the irrelevant of the market where you're basically saying those stocks could go up but just not everything could go near amazon yeah when you put that trade on for example it's i'm going to bet that if everything goes up amazon will go up more than kmart walmart sears and if the stock market goes down amazon won't go down that much but these ones will go down a lot so it's important to analyze what a spread trade is right there and i didn't even really know what a spreadsheet was until i watched this podcast and i started to understand a lot more about it but it's this idea that you're making a a a dualistic bet a bet that if i'm going long amazon that means i think the future of retail is going to be on the internet it's not going to be in in in stores and malls which means i'm going short and shorting a stock means you make upside money if the stock actually reaches the downside right so if the stock price goes down you make more money uh basically thinking all the regular stores that are engaging in commerce right now are not going to be able to compete with amazon or they're not going to be good which means if they go down i make money if amazon goes up which inversely should happen if they go down because that's where people are going to be buying stuff from which means amazon's going to get the value then i also make money because i'm long amazon but it also means that even if all those stocks go up amazon like those stocks like kmart sears they're not gonna go up at the level of an amazon which is what the spread trade allows you to gain upside in and if all these stocks go down like if people just stop buying stuff amazon's not going to be affected as much as those stocks because people are still going to be using amazon more so in this context tamath is talking about what the spread trade could be like when it comes to his logic for uh going along google and shorting facebook and you you're playing the spread so just just to be very explicit you know there was a very and i talked about this last week but uh i that this idea wasn't mine it's a borrowed trade from somebody who's a very well-known hedge fund manager who put it on in massive size and you know to be honest not knowing much of anything i just copied it but he's his initial trade was long google short facebook and that trade basically was at parody which meant that the long and the short canceled each other out for about the last four years until the last year it completely blew out and it returned about 80 85 percent so if you had put a hundred dollars in you would have made about 85 uh 85 bucks on this trade by being long google short facebook the the bigger trade at scale is actually long google and microsoft and short the rest of big tech and there's a lot of vague reasons why that this idea makes a lot of sense but what you're saying is they'll outperform the other basket of text on a relative basis on a relative basis so so it's not like you're saying airbnb can't go up or facebook can't go up it could it's not going to go as well he's saying that the the the trillion dollar market cap companies yeah not the airbnb okay and the reason and the reason why focusing there makes sense is there hyper liquid markets they have tremendous ways in which you can have massive size on so you could put a trade of 10 billion long versus 10 billion short i mean you can put mega size on on these things if you if you have real conviction and then the third thing is when the banks look at that kind of position they actually from a risk management perspective treat it differently than if you were just naked long any one of these things or make it long would be just making one bet yeah or you know or naked short which is even more dangerous so because if the market collapses by 30 percent both stocks might go down 30 roughly but one will go down 32 and the other one will go down 28 and so you're really only down 2 2 as opposed to the 30 percent of the so all the market risk is taken out when you make trades like that this is actually really interesting and that's kind of what chmath was talking about which is that and the reason it's interesting because we just saw the market crash right where a lot of these stocks lost a lot of their initial value now big tech held up a decent amount of the market because big tech is big tech and a lot of big tech is in the nasdaq and s p and all that stuff right so like those were the stocks that were the last to kind of go down and earnings was going to dictate if the market was going to demolish them so with amazon earnings was good amazon's shot up facebook earnings were bad the market destroyed facebook but if you were long short facebook 30 28 you would only lose two percent based upon what's happening not a full 30 or 28 if you're naked longer naked short just one of those stocks yeah the reason it's possible also today to do so at such a scale right chamoth is interest rates are so low so when you borrow on margin to go long the rate is very low and when you short the stock if it's a highly liquid stock it doesn't cost a lot to borrow to short that's so your actual you know uh carrying cost on that trade ends up being pretty low relative to the upside you expect so just to just to give you a sense of it my um you know when i tweeted that tweet up to complete the picture i was actually long something against my proposed short and i put it on in pretty meaningful leverage and uh it's worked out really well because i was playing the spread i was basically betting that you know the the safest company on the internet today is google because they're both a platform company and to the extent that they're at risk at being an app company the risk is to apple but because they pay apple so much for search they're inoculated and what chamath is talking about here and this is what i really wanted to get into is now he's going to be describing why google is so valuable and one of the best stocks to to bet on the internet now i'm not long google i might enter a position soon especially because uh they're gonna do a split and um it's split it hit 3k on the news of the 21 split and now it's just back down so like the momentum of that split wasn't enough to maintain the stock but you there are there are some like concerns around how much more google could grow the reason i bet facebook over google is cause facebook was a 900 billion dollar company google was a 2 trillion or 1 point something trillion and i was like i think it's easier for facebook to double in the next five years and become a two trillion dollar company versus google to double and become like a 3.8 trillion trillion dollar company right that was my initial logic behind it it wasn't anything against google like i love google i love youtube i think there's a lot of potential there obviously the entire world uses it they control the traffic of the internet but i just saw from a growth potential facebook had more upside obviously we saw what happened right so we'll see what happens in the future his argument here is that google is a platform it's not an app company and if they were an app that means they would be relegated to apple right because because um if they were an app then that means that the ios would control their destiny but the default search browser on any phone is google why because if it's android it's definitely google and if it's apple it's safari what's in safari search being google now it would have been really interesting if apple when they made the iphone in 2007 created their own search engine and had a focus on user privacy i think to be honest that is one of apple's biggest mistakes because because think about it if apple had made their own search engine in 2007 it's not that hard to create a search engine it's like it's really just about first mover advantages so you get a bunch of content you put in one place you search it you create some crawling algorithms google had the best one in 1999 but like apple would have been able to figure it out it wouldn't have been that crazy and they have the brand to be able to go against to google and if their business model didn't rely on selling as which they don't they don't really need to sell ads they sell product then like they have a direct ability to subsidize all the cost of the search engine because they don't need advertising to be able to fund it at that point they could have made their own search engine now no one knew how big the iphone would be in 2007 but now the entire world is using the iphone right obviously there's competitors but like the iphone is big like the everything is sort of built in optimization for the iphone which means you would have had hundreds of millions of people having a search engine right on their phone that's built by apple apple would have controlled where you search and how you get your information google wouldn't have controlled that the reason google is so powerful is because the world shifted to iphone versus desktop from 2007 to 2013 and google was the default browser which means google got all that traffic and google pays something like 15 18 billion dollars a year to apple to make sure that relationship exists now the reason i think apple did this in 2007 is because they wanted to focus on product not like the search and they wanted to provide the best experience google obviously is the best search experience in the world so they integrated that easily but if they did that that would have been kind of crazy as a result this allowed google to maintain a relationship with apple that is fundamentally different than facebook's relationship facebook is just an app on the app store it is subject to all these changes google is a search engine and partner with apple and in and of itself you're gonna treat your partners better than the people that are just using your app store especially when those partners are giving you 15 billion dollars a year it's just inevitable so at that point um and that's the point david sacks actually made in a pre in an upcoming podcast which was just who's another member of the olin podcast which is just like look you're going to treat people better if they're giving you a lot of money so at that point google is not as susceptible to the same problems facebook is susceptible towards which gives it an edge in terms of being one of the most valuable internet so in any event the trade is what the trade is the bigger thing is what is going on at facebook and i think what you see are three really important headwinds that facebook called out explicitly one is that when they talked about usage kind of flattening and starting to decay what they're really talking about is tick tock and i think what we learned is that tick tock is an enormous threat and a huge competitive force now in the consumer social app ecosystem the second is that facebook is fundamentally an app that sits inside of an ecosystem that is subject to the rules of the platform owner and that's apple and google and so this idfa change so the change in how you can track advertisers facebook site is going to have a 10 billion dollar impact in 2022 and then the third thing which was more implicit is in order for them to grow if you can't grow organically the only other way to grow is inorganically and unfortunately as we're seeing the regulatory focus on this company is really enormous all right so those are the three arguments i wanted to talk about for why facebook is actually susceptible to a lot of problems this is sort of the bear case for going along google short facebook which moth paul called correctly in the spread trade ended up being very very correct the whole concept is facebook has three main problems those problems are number one tick tock tick tock's a big force a lot of attention short form video that short form video is happening on tick tock more than it is happening on facebook they tried to implement instagram and reels and facebook even has reels and will that work we'll see if it takes attention away from from tick tock but from my own experience with using tick tock and reels tech reels has no comparison to tick tock like when you use a network built for a certain type of content versus a type of content on a network not built for that it's not the same youtube shorts sucks on youtube it just does and tick tock doesn't and the same tick tocks that are posted on youtube shorts get like literally one one thousand of the views i got a tick tock that had i saw tick tock that had like 750 000 and on youtube had like 17 views i was like what is going on so it's like it's not a question of quality of content it's a question of how the algorithm is distributing it and on tick tock you're just getting way more distribution than you're getting on some of these other platforms so that's one thing and that means that instagram creators are probably going to not use instagram as much if they're getting more reach on on tick tock number two is this entire idea behind the idfa changes right so if facebook's just an app in apple's ecosystem apple can turn the light switch on and off and we already talked about how they don't turn the light switch on and off for google because google pays them 10 billion dollars a year for search so they're less likely to screw them over so when it comes to that respect if apple wants to you know screw facebook over and tim cook really doesn't like facebook because he cares about user privacy and facebook does generally does not care that much about user privacy they care more about data then that's not an app that's going to get a lot of respect on the iphone platform or the ios platform which is why it's subject to apple that's why facebook is trying to build their own metaverse because if they can own the hardware and software of their own ecosystem they don't have to deal with apple will that happen we'll see but that's that's the problem number three is this idea of regulatory problems facebook actually might finally be able to buy another company because their market cap now is below all of their competitors i mean they're at 600 billion dollars all their competitors are mult like trillion multi-trillion dollar companies so it's like you cannot say meaningfully in a court of law that facebook is this monopoly like it's not the even digital advertising people amazon made 30 billion dollars uh last year on digital ads facebook's entire business model is ads that amazon that 30 billion is like a little bit of amazon's overall portfolio when it comes to how they make revenue so like you cannot say that facebook is a monopoly which means this massive drop in stock price might actually be the best thing for facebook in terms of them being able to acquire the next instagram or whatsapp to actually be able to grow because they can't grow organically because they already have 30 7 of the population using their platform so it's a really really interesting thing to ultimately think about and it gives you an idea for how if the regulatory burdens are still bad and regulators are not going to let them buy a new app even though their market cap is crushed uh tick-tock is a big problem and they are left within apple's ios changes and ios's ecosystem then where is the opportunity to facebook to grow in relationship to google something that is youtube that's not going away like youtube is an absolute monster and like the world's video is consumed on youtube um and they have search at the end of the day they have search people don't go to facebook to search they go to connect with their friends and family i can tell you someone who uses who doesn't use facebook anymore i don't care that much about my friends and family anymore on facebook right there's like other things that i care about in terms of consuming content where but search i care about searching like 17 000 things a day because i'm curious about stuff every single day like yesterday i searched how many what's the population of lagos nigeria because i watched a video on it right like just random stuff that pops into my head you go and you search and in that relationship there is a opportunity for google to massively grow there's also three billion people that aren't online on the internet yet when they come online they're gonna either have a facebook account or they're gonna use google search i think because android's phones are gonna be more likely in those areas that are less developed because those phones are more cheaper than iphones they're gonna have access to google and youtube way quicker before they have access to facebook facebook you need a bunch of people in a community to join for you to have value out of it youtube you get content google you get results so like it makes a lot of sense why one would go long google and short facebook and i think chamath he gets some things wrong get some things right there's a lot of stuff you could say about him but on this one he was absolutely correct in november i think he called this her december he probably made a lot of money on the spread trade ultimately coming correct in the past couple months or in the past couple weeks so let me know what you guys think are you long google short facebook what are your thoughts on spread trades how do you think about trading two stocks against each other and ultimately what do you think about chamath's thoughts on facebook and its headwinds going in the future thank you guys for watching so much my name is amit looking forward to the comments i'll see you in the next one