저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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Pershing Square의 Bill Ackman은 단기 주가 방향 예측은 하지 않겠다고 밝히면서도, 보유 기업들이 좋은 실적을 내면 장기적으로 주가가 오를 것이라고 낙관했다. 보유 기업 실적과 가치: 보유 기업들은 실적이 좋고 저평가 상태이며, 장기적으로 내재가치 상승이 예상된다고 주장했다. Pershing Square 할인율: 회사 주가는 순자산가치(NAV) 대비 약 28~29% 할인된 수준으로, 역사적으로 매우 넓은 할인이라며 축소될 것으로 봤다. 신규 투자 발표 시 할인 축소가 단기에도 가능하다고 언급했다. Universal Music 등 보유 종목: Universal은 최대 보유 종목 중 하나이며, 최근 주가가 약 1/3 상승했음에도 Warner Music과 비슷한 배수에 거래되어 저평가라고 주장했다. 최근 4년간 영업이익 연 20%대 성장을 근거로 들었다. 시장 과열과 조정 우려: 단기 조정 여부는 답하지 않았다. 다만 비트코인은 투기적 자산으로 사상 최고가 부근에 있다고 평가했고, 일부 암호화폐는 실제 프로젝트에 기반한 가치가 있다고 봤다. 거시 경제: 재정·금리 지원, 은행과 소비자의 건전성, 코로나 이후 델타 변이 상황 개선으로 경제 활동 재개와 서비스·여행 소비 회복을 기대했다. 금리에 대해서는 더 약세적으로 봤다. 인플레이션과 종목 선택: 인플레이션 기대가 근본적으로 바뀌었다고 판단했다. 가격 전가력이 있는 기업은 잘 버티고, 임금·원자재 인상을 전가하지 못하는 기업은 부진할 것이라며 최고의 사업을 가진 기업을 보유하라고 조언했다. 투자 철학: 트레이더가 아니라 장기 보유 관점이며, 불확실한 세계에서는 가격 결정력이 있는 우량 기업을 소유하는 것이 핵심이라고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
hello with me today i have star investor bill ackman ceo of ftse 100 company pershing square holdings hi bill thanks for joining me today sam good to uh good to see you now we've just entered the final quarter following at this point in q3 how do you think stocks are going to play out over the rest of 2021 through i mean what is typically historically a seasonally strong period for equities yeah so i i never make short-term stock market predictions because i think it's a really difficult thing to do and the probability of getting it wrong i think is high i think all of our businesses are going to report good results and does that mean the stocks will go up um i can't i can't speak to the next short period of time but over time as businesses report you know business the value of a business present value the cash generates over his life a quarter report of strong earnings and cash flows and growth over a previous period is suggestive of growth in the intrinsic value of the business and we don't think any of our businesses are undervalued we think the outcome are overvalued we think the opposite we think they're undervalued so undervalued companies reporting good results stocks should do well absent some you know overarching macro or market development again i speak over time and the other thing i would point out is persian square holdings is trading at about one of the widest discounts to net asset value it's traded at historically it's approaching a you know it's what 28 29 discounts nab and i find that just a remarkable i don't you know i don't know i don't know if other stocks like that right we own some of the highest quality businesses in the world um and uh you can buy them at almost a 30 discount the price you see it on the screen by buying it through us that seems anomalous to me so i would think that discount's gonna narrow and and that is something that can happen on a shorter term basis because you know so for example if we find a new investment for the capital that we've raised in this bond offering and we announced a new investment that's interesting that should remind people of the opportunity to earn incremental returns on that capital um and uh i don't know we've had another i think a relatively strong year this year after a couple of extraordinary years and i think universal itself uh well the stock's up nicely you know maybe a third from the price we paid uh just when we closed on the shares a month ago um it's trading at about the same multiple as warner music which is a controlled company a levered company a number three player in the industry uh universal has grown at 20 operating income at 21 per annum for the last four years warner about half that um we've got the best management team in the industry most market share so i think the market has yet to give universal an appropriate premium and that's one of our biggest holdings i think again that just takes time so um i think biggest opportunity for value creation and produce we're holdings it's the discount it's just too wide here well a couple of um things that investors are worried about they're worried about valuations but you've just addressed that regarding your own portfolio i mean they're all also worried about supply chain issues which are causing problems globally um now there's a lot of talk about a major correction is is now due i know you don't like speculating on short-term movements but where do you on that argument about whether a a correction is around the corner i mean whether that be just um you know taking out a bit of the froth from the market i mean do you think they're right again i i really can't speak to the short term which is what the stock market's going to do um you know what's interesting is you know we don't i would have to analyze every meaningful percentage of the companies in the s p 500 to give you a view on whether it's cheap or expensive um there is a lot of speculative stuff going on you know i think fundamentally bitcoin is a speculative instrument it's trading i think at the all-time highs um you see a lot of specular stuff going on in in a much broader group of cryptocurrencies um all that being said i think there are some real uh cryptocurrencies that have are associated with what they call projects or business models that can justify fundamental value for currency so i think there's really interesting stuff going on in technology with cryptocurrencies with you know i do a lot of venture capital personally and that gives me a peek into what going on in the world i think there's a lot of great developments um but and uh i do think we've had an unprecedented amount of fiscal and uh you know uh low rate support um you know it seems like we're this delta variant uh the statistics are looking a lot more favorable uh in our country and and uh certainly in europe uh in the uk and i think more broadly i just i see a path through the through the uh through the virus so and we're gonna have a world where people are really gonna wanna live again and uh so i think you're gonna see a big pick up in the surface economy hospitality travel um people spending money and uh so i just think that's a pretty strong backdrop you know low rates well capitalized banks well-capitalized consumer um a desire to live again you know we could have a very very strong economy i think we probably will um you know the constraints are constraints but they're driven by all the demand and i think people are going to come back to work to be in offices again so i'm i'm generally bullish on the economy and uh you know i'm more bearish on rates so look you've mentioned a few themes there i was going to ask given how 2021 has played out what's your view on the big themes that investors you know globally really should be preparing for in 2022 were there any stocks or sectors ideas uh investors should be uh thinking about knowing um okay i think the world's an uncertain place and we're not traders at all right we're looking to own things that we're going to the stock market closed for a decade we're happy to own it that's certainly true for universal and our other companies in the portfolio but we own these super durable robust businesses because i have no idea what the world's going to look like in 6 or 12 months or i have a pretty good idea of a view of what things are going to be but they may not be that way so you want to own businesses that have pricing power if you know inflation turns to be a lot more durable than than temporary you know i think inflation expectation uh has changed fundamentally that's also the driver of inflation so i think we're going to see inflation i think that is going to be through i think so i think there's going to be a more likelihood of stock market divergence some companies doing very very well some companies doing very very poorly you know companies that can't pass through wage inflation and goods inflation to their customers are going to do poorly if i'm right about inflation so the better the business the better it does i think and you want to own the best businesses in the world in an uncertain world in an inflationary world um if you're good or better than we are at trading commodities you know there's probably a ton of money being made i just don't it's not what we do great bill ackman um ceo of pershing square holdings thank you very much for joining me today sure thank you lee appreciate it you
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