저자: Alex · 외국인
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팔란티어 주가가 2020년 11월 이후 최저 수준이라는 배경에서, 매출 성장(전년 대비 약 36%), 상업 고객 증가(미국 상업 매출 2배 이상), 위지오·현대중공업 등 파트너십, 미 육군 계약(1억 1,600만 달러 옵션 행사, 8억 2,300만 달러 IDIQ) 등을 근거로 긍정적 견해를 제시. 반대 논리 중 ‘윤리·감시 기업’ 비판은 부정확하다고 보고, 정부 매출 의존도와 주식보상 우려는 완화되고 있다고 평가함.
다듬은 글
palantir stock is the lowest price it's been in over a year the last time it was 16 dollars per share was in november of 2020 so in this episode i'm going to answer one simple question what's going on with palantir stock and is it a good buy right now wait that's two questions to do that i'm going to talk about some of the ways that palantir has grown over the year some of their biggest wins on the government and commercial side and address some of the biggest recent stories that i've heard around palantir like ross gerber's spicy comments in a recent interview do you have any thoughts on paluteer i do i think i think it is literally the worst company in the world and more legit concerns about their financial health and stock-based compensation your time is valuable so let's get right into it starting with what they've accomplished over the year their latest earnings report is for q3 of 2021 and the last time they were this price was in q3 of 2020 so we can actually just look at their year over year numbers pound year's total revenue grew by 36 percent year over year to 392 million dollars commercial revenue growth has also grown by roughly that amount which is great to see because one of the biggest complaints i often hear about palantir as an investment is their reliance on government contracts commercial revenue in the u.s has more than doubled since q3 of 2020 so they're actually getting a lot of business on the commercial side domestically which should alleviate at least some of these concerns the other big complaint about palantir is that it's enterprise software so the total addressable market is limited to government agencies with huge budgets and big fortune 500 type companies in addition to being a flexible platform which works with everything from cryptocurrencies and pharmaceuticals to robots and race cars investors want to see that palantir's foundry is a scalable platform that can work with companies that have dozens of employees not just thousands their total commercial customer account has gone up by a whopping 135 percent since the start of last year and their commercial customer count is growing faster than their average commercial deal value which tells me that they're landing smaller commercial clients which means they're starting to move down market to medium-sized businesses in my opinion these are positive things that increase their total addressable market even if this looks like their average size per deal or average size per client is going down in the short term palantir's final guidance for 2021 saw revenue grow by 40 and adjusted free cash flow grow by 33 percent both year over year their long-term outlook is for 30 revenue growth per year for the next four years so through 2025.
all right so just from their earnings report alone we can see that palantir's top line has grown by at least 30 percent since the last time the stock was 16 dollars per share importantly this doesn't include over a dozen companies that palantir has made investments in several of which are no longer specs palantir also stands a lot of them up on their foundry platform for example wijo onboards and standardizes over 14 billion unique data points every day from connected vehicles through its cloud platform it takes in data like vehicle location speed environmental data camera data and more and by partnering with automotive manufacturers wijo can take in automobile data directly from any vehicles manufactured by a partner brand then they can use that data to help make decisions in a wide variety of automotive applications like fleet management hazard monitoring training self-driving ai traffic management advertising remote diagnostics roadside assistance and even payments my point is this is a no-brainer business for palancers platforms which focus on exactly this type of data collection refinement and insight generation helping businesses build on top of boundary before they get very big makes palantir very sticky because if a business builds their entire data pipeline on top of foundry it'll be very costly and time consuming to switch to different software my point is wijo is just one commercial company that palantir is invested in across a wide variety of verticals and the growth of those investments should also at least be on our radars as investors i was actually lucky enough to get wejo's ceo richard barlow on the channel for an interview a few months ago where he answered some pretty tough questions about connected vehicle data being a spack during tough market conditions like these and the nature of their relationship with pound here if you're interested in learning a lot more about that i'll leave a link to that exclusive interview with mr barlow in the top right hand corner of your screen right now and in the description below as well weejo has actually had a ton of awesome news come out about it so maybe we'll be lucky enough to get a follow-up interview soon fingers crossed on that another thing that we should be watching out for is joint ventures just two weeks ago palantir and hyundai heavy industries announced a collaboration to build a big data platform for ship building offshore engineering energy and industrial machinery once the big data platform is built for hhi and its key affiliates the two parties plan to create a joint venture that specializes in developing and selling these big data platform services hyundai heavy industries is working on the future of shipyard the first smart shipyard in the world hhi's ceo ki sun chung said that they expect that this partnership with pound here will substantially improve the competitiveness of core businesses to the group and change the way that they work with data this multi-year deal is worth over 25 million dollars and also uses palantir's foundry platform investors spend a lot of time focused on foundry because we all want to see palantir's commercial business keep ramping up but i also think it's important to consider their growth on the government side with their gotham and apollo platforms just last month the us army opted to execute the second option year of its partnership with palantir on the army vantage program now worth over 116 million dollars for the year meaning the army likes palantir enough to stick with them even when they have the contractual option not to army vantage provides a central operating system and an integrated near real-time data platform to help create one global unified picture of everything going on so that the army can make better decisions at the strategic level we also know that palantir was selected for the next phase of the army's competitive 823 million dollar idiq contract idiq it stands for indefinite delivery indefinite quantity for that contract palancier is going to deploy the gotham platform to support army intelligence users worldwide with an analytics platform that spans multiple security classifications having one platform that supports a worldwide list of army users is a very very difficult challenge because different areas of the army have different ways of handling their access lists networks data and have a wide variety of analysis tools you would think that everything that the army does would be standardized everywhere and work the same way and that's probably true on paper but it never works that way in practice plugging the us army's intelligence systems and analytics into palantir's gotham will bring this part of the army a lot closer to having that unified consistent view of all of their data which is obviously super important when you're talking about multiple teams stationed around the world so this 116 million dollar army vantage program is another way palantir is helping strategic leaders make data-driven decisions across a huge globally distributed enterprise like the us army just two weeks before the army vantage program renewal palantir secured an additional 43 million dollars from an extension of their contract with space systems command which is now worth over 90 million dollars total this award provides continued capabilities to enable all domain situational awareness and decision making back from my government research days i can tell you that all domain means different layers of intelligence so think about the sea land air and space but also think about telescopes and cameras radars and lidars and other types of sensors this version of palantir's platform is known as warp core and it's being utilized to make decisions from large volumes of data in support of these missions another important thing i always try to call out here is how important it is that palantir supports users who operate in multiple security levels and need to access multiple separate networks palantir can do this at least in part because of apollo the platform that powers their other platforms apollo sits between palantir's other applications and the underlying infrastructure that they run on and they spent a good amount of their q3 2021 earnings call talking about it apollo lets palantir push the right updates to the right clients at the right times even if those client machines are sitting on classified networks or networks that don't touch the internet at all i cannot emphasize enough how big of a market apollo unlocks for palantir that other software-as-a-service providers simply cannot touch apollo is what allows palantir to be one of just five companies authorized for mission critical national security systems at impact level five the other four companies are oracle microsoft project hosts and disa which is the defense information systems agency so this is a tiny list think about how sticky that makes palantir on the government side as well if these parts of the us army or space system command decide that they want to try a new platform imagine all the infrastructure and software they'll have to change just to do it just like the smaller commercial companies using foundry i know i've covered this stickiness several times now but these recent contract extensions are clear examples of it in action at the same time they're launching new offerings like foundry for crypto if foundry can work on everything from cars to crypto i'm hard-pressed to find a vertical that they can't make money from this gives pouncer a huge total addressable market they've also recently launched a new certification program which will help valentine's customers unlock even more value from foundry regardless of what kind of business they run or at what size there are already four foundry exams and certifications available to existing palantir customers data engineer application developer data science and data analyst certifications are the exact kind of validation that employers look for when hiring new talent amazon and microsoft offer dozens upon dozens of certifications today and it makes total sense for palantir to start offering them now and expanding these programs into the future okay now let me cover some of the bear arguments against palantir just to give you a balanced point of view i'm trying to provide value on both sides of the story here i think there are two kinds of bear arguments against pound here the first kind is the bad kind it's based on not understanding the actual company at a fundamental level here's a quick example about palantir have you do you have any thoughts on paluteer i do i think i think it is literally the worst company in the world like ethically so like esg i have my own esg rules you know everybody can make what they call morality up i don't really believe in religious morality for example so i invest in cannabis i invest in gambling you know i don't listen to people telling me what's moral or not okay but i have certain moralities like tracking everything americans do and selling that to the highest bidder even if they're enemies of america now palantir and the president of palantir is basically the for profit cia that's what palantir is so over the last 10 years and it was kind of founded through the mercer family and the whole misinformation campaigns that brought trump into power so palantir's roots are in tracking all of our digital uh histories making profiles so they have a profile of every american so they have your profile and everything you do and they track everything you do digitally and they do it through nefarious means and then they take these things and they sell them to companies and governments and foreign spying institutions and there are no ethical boundaries that palantir who they will and won't sell information to so to me they are they make facebook which i hate look like like boy scouts you know so like why would you want to be a shareholder of a bunch of shady cia dudes who are cashing out on you who don't give a [ __ ] about you at all you know comment below or tweet me at ticker symbol you if you saw that interview before ross gerber made dave lee edit that clip out what did you think about ross gerber's overall thoughts on palantir i read all of my comments and i'm really excited to hear your thoughts if you didn't watch that interview that was ross gerber the co-founder and ceo of gerber kawasaki ross is a fun guy to listen to in general but he's super wrong on what palantir is what they do and who they do it for specifically that's the bad kind of bare thesis palantir is not a for-profit cia and they don't track individuals and they don't sell your data to governments or foreign spies they look at tons of data to find patterns build models and then find those rare instances when something doesn't fit the pattern a car going the wrong way down a highway a financial transaction that looks like it could be fraudulent a radar or camera return that looks very unusual that's one thing that all the businesses that work with pounds here have in common they have lots of data that they want to see at once and they want to know when something is off runaway cars fraud faulty sensors and so on you can't have a solid bare thesis on a company if you don't actually understand what that company does even if you're running a billion dollar fund like ross gerber his firm runs the gerber kawasaki etf ticker symbol gk which is another fund that i've started to track he says in that clip that he hates facebook but his fund contains over 4 million dollars of that stock and facebook is his 36th biggest position overall want to hear something even more funny i looked through the first few pages of the gerber kawasaki's holdings on whale wisdom and it holds rk arc f arcg and arc w inside it relatively towards the top so these are pretty big positions those are archives four biggest funds and palantir is in all of them ross gerber if you're watching this i'd love to have you on this channel to talk about your thoughts on palantir facebook artificial intelligence big data and privacy i think it would be a good time okay that's the bad kind of bear thesis on any company the reason we as investors should still care about them is they can drive the narrative on a stock until the market realizes this mistake think about how misinformed people were for years on tesla stock and what happened to its stock price during that time period the other kind of bear thesis is what i think is the good one unlike ross gerber's bear thesis these are facts based on reality with data that people can point to it's the kind of thesis that uses that same data to come to a different conclusion the government makes up a sizable chunk of palantir's revenue palantir's revenue is risky because they rely too much on their biggest clients their stock-based compensation is off the charts i've spent a lot of time covering these points because they're the ones that i'm watching out for right now as a pound to your investor so let me wrap up this episode by saving you a ton of time and giving you my answers to these worries right now palantir's commercial revenue growth was 37 percent year over year compared to their government revenue growth of 34 percent over the same time frame so their government revenue is slowly becoming a smaller portion of their overall revenue that's actually also faster than the growth of their average revenue for their top 20 customers so they're slowly relying less on their biggest clients over time last quarter they added more net new customers than the previous two quarters combined meaning their total customer pool is becoming big enough where losing one or two huge customers won't be a complete show stopper that's what we want to see stock based compensation is down about 40 percent for just quarter three it's down from 847 million dollars in 2020 to 185 million dollars same time in 2021 that's about an 80 drop compensating employees with stock is a great way to keep their incentives aligned with their shareholders and to keep them motivated to perform so we don't ever want to see this number hit zero but it's great to see that it's much lower than before that's the nutshell but if you want more detailed information on what palantir does how it's growing and what investment risks to watch out for i got you covered i've put all of my pal into your content in one convenient playlist for you i'll leave that in the top right hand corner of your screen right now and in the description below as well hopefully this episode helped you understand just some of the ways that palantir has grown over the last year since the last time that its stock was this exact price huge wins on the government side commercial side new joint ventures and certification programs and investments into other companies and hopefully it also addressed some of the biggest worries about palantir that i'm seeing out there right now ranging from ross gerber's commentary to more legit concerns about their financial health and insider selling if it did let me know by investing in the like button and subscribing to the channel with all notifications turned on that way you'll be the first to know when i come out with new deep dives regardless of what palantir tells youtube to show you so stay long stay strong and thanks for watching until next time this is ticker symbol u my name is alex reminding you that the best investment you can make is in you you
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