저자: RenanZanella,CFA,CFP® · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 그린블랫의 '마법공식'은 저평가 우량주를 고르는 원칙으로 과거 백테스트상 시장을 웃돌았으며, 영상은 이를 설명하는 교육 콘텐츠다. 주요 주장: 전문가도 시장 지수를 이기기 어렵고 대다수 종목은 장기적으로 지수를 못 이긴다는 전제에서, 단순한 공식의 효과를 소개함. 백테스트 근거: 미국 3,500개 대형주 기준 1988~2004년 연 30% 수익(시장평균 12%), 상위 1,000개 기준 연 약 23%(시장 11%대), 1988~2009년 약 20%(시장 24%, S&P 15% 미만)로 기간에 따라 결과가 엇갈림을 언급. 브라질 1995~2015년 연구도 이보벳 상회라고 소개. 핵심 원리: 두 요인은 자본수익률(ROIC)이 높은 우량기업과 낮은 주가(낮은 PER)임. 경쟁우위가 있는 기업은 이익을 재투자해 성장을 이어갈 수 있다는 논리. 방법론: 자본수익률과 이익수익률(역PER)로 기업 순위를 매기고 순위 합산이 낮은 상위 20~30개 종목을 편입. 필터링 링크는 설명란 제공 예고. 리스크/조건: 영상은 과거 성과 기반이며 백테스트 기간·필터(유동성, 시가총액 상위 등)에 따라 결과가 달라짐을 일부 언급. 특정 종목 방향에 대한 단기 가격 예측은 없음. 언급 종목/자산: 개별 한국·미국 종목 예측 발언 없음. 출연자 전망 없음.
다듬은 글
The script shows money is spent trying to outperform the stock market. Academics conduct their research, professionals in the job market work 12-14 hours a day, searching for the best stocks, all to try and outperform the index. And yet, more than eighty percent of stocks don't outperform the long-term stock index.
But in this video, we're going to talk about a simple formula that's not magical, and we're going to talk about Johnny's formula. Does it work? What are the steps we can take to achieve this? Hello everyone, my name is Johnny Depp, I'm an investment specialist. This is another special video for you who want to become a better investor.
So, as always, when you subscribe to the channel, leave your like. And before you have prejudice against these two words, formula, know that there is no magic or investment funds. I want you to get rid of this prejudice because Johnny Depp, who was a master, a professor of a certain type in his time, also had a method that he considered simple, a method that was sufficient to outperform the market.
So, even if you don't apply it, then integrate the method that... I'm going to teach you today, if you understand what's behind it, what the concepts and lessons are, I'm sure this will add a lot to you. So in July we'll see if this formula really works. This Magic Formula was officially launched on the market and is actually based on the United States Stock Market.
The first test covered a 16-year period, from 1988 to 2004. The author selected the 3,500 largest companies, and the return, if I hadn't used the Magic Formula, would have been 30% compared to 12% for the market average, or 12% for the INSS (Brazilian Social Security Institute). He's happy. You might ask why there's this distinction between the market average and UEFI (Unit of Financial and Financial Information).
It's because the master often uses a weighting by capitalization, while the market average, where the author simply took the 3,500 companies, has a simple arithmetic average. That's why sometimes there's a difference entering the market in São Paulo. But it's important that we can compare how the market performed against the lower Magic Formula.
What happened? Why did some people see this test start here? I'm talking about... Although 3,500 companies were selected, many of them have low liquidity or, due to some formula, investors cannot access Elsa. Therefore, the second test, covering the same period from 1988 to 2004, but this time filtering the 1,000 largest companies, also showed an incredible return for the Magic Formula against the market.
The Magic Formula yielded almost 23 percent annually, an annual return of 11 percent of the market average, and a return of 12 percent for the Prince. So it was another landslide victory. Not satisfied with these two tests, another test was done to see if the formula really works. This time, a test from 1988 to 2009, a longer period, showed that the Magic Formula had a final return of almost 20 percent compared to 24 percent for the market average and less than 15 percent for the S&P.
So, although in this text it was below the Freedom Average, it also surpassed the market's initial performance. And if you still have doubts, know that studies... They proved that if you had followed the Magic Formula for at least three more years, you would have, in a way, surpassed the previous mark.
So, with this in mind, we can know that this method works, even if we don't fool ourselves. Even if we don't exactly do what the author proposes, the trials contained here are very relevant. And I know you'll also ask, " Does it also work in Brazil?" In Brazil, Curralinho conducted a test from 1995 to 2015 where they were some companies that bought from bricklayers and assumed some premises.
"And I did everything," and the method also outperformed the Ibovespa, even though it was poorer than the American market. I'll leave the graph here on the screen; I'll also leave the link for anyone interested in seeing this Brazilian study. I think at this point, we can already agree that the method works.
Now, what is the secret behind it? There are two factors that make it so phenomenal. And as I said, and I repeat, even if you don't apply it completely, understanding these two factors can help you be... Investing is much better than price and quality; the secret of the Magic Formula, the magic behind the logical way, is to buy good companies at ridiculously low prices, good quality companies, in the definition of lunch, the big gift, high return on capital in a visible way.
Let's think about a chain of stores that wants to make new investments, for that it spends 200,000 reais to acquire a new store, and it doesn't understand why in the first year, without Amy Ray, the return is 50% because Victor is the value too high. So behind this high return on invested capital, what do we have?
First, if the company continues doing this, it will increasingly invest its profits to have even higher profits. So we can expect that this company will have increasingly higher profits, and also, for it to achieve such a high return with a store, it is very likely that it has a competitive advantage, it is very likely that it has a differentiator, whether it is customer service and resource management or product, as in the case of Coca-Cola.
Coca-Cola manages to have a brand that is so strong and manages to have so much return on its products, therefore a very clear competitive advantage: price with high return on capital. And we won't reveal that we will find companies that... They possess competitive advantages, and to help you identify a high return on capital, there are some indicators.
Most analysts, including the car itself, give you a hint. But let's look at the simplest one. The author makes it clear that you can use the P/E ratio, which measures the price over earnings; the lower the P/E ratio, the lower the P/E ratio, or the inverted P/E ratio. So when you're filtering the companies you're studying for investment, you use a good way to measure the quality of that company.
If the first factor is quality, the second is price. And for you, you have to look for companies that are being traded at a very cheap price. As the author says, you can use the P/E ratio, which measures the price over earnings. The lower the P/E ratio, the cheaper the company. There's a caveat that the author uses in the book: the P/ E ratio is nothing more than the inverted P/E ratio.
So you have a price- to-earnings ratio, as most analysts see it. The author uses the P/E ratio over the P/E ratio, so he looks for companies that have the highest P/E ratio, or in our case, the lowest P/E ratio. And now you understand why it's not necessary to apply a magic formula to extract the magic from the advice to invest.
Investing in good companies at fair and cheap prices is a principle of the old "invest well" approach. If you can apply this, my role here is already fulfilled, but I want to show you how the author chose his stocks in a very technical way. He would go back to his own company, taking the 3,500 largest companies.
He ranked them according to their return on capital and according to their Hermes index. So, the company with the highest return on capital was ranked first, second, third, and so on, until some stock was ranked last. Then, to decide which stocks would go into that portfolio, which varied between 20 and 30 stocks, they would add them up.
Imagine that the company that was first in terms of return on capital was ranked fifth, so it had about five or six points. He did this with all these companies and took the top 30 companies, those with the lowest scores, which meant they had a better ranking considering these two factors. So, in the end, it was about finding cheap companies because of this...
Multiple and also with a high return on capital, and I'll leave a link in the description of this video that the author provides so you can filter out the stock to only include American companies based on these two indicators. I want to know if you enjoyed understanding the magic behind the magic formula, and if you're going to apply it to your investments.
So comment below if you have any questions, feel free to leave them. Until next time!
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