저자: CharlieMunger/인터뷰어미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버크셔는 2020년 팬데믹 급락기에 항공주를 저가 매수하지 않았고, 현금 일부를 보유하며 은행주를 줄였다. 항공사에 정부 지원이 필요했던 점은 인정했으나, 버크셔가 대주주였다면 결과가 달랐을 것이라 언급. 연준의 3월 23일 조치가 시장을 정상화시켰고, 재정·통화정책이 예상보다 잘 작동했다고 평가. 버크셔는 타인 의존을 피하기 위해 현금을 유지해야 한다고 강조. 시장 타이밍으로 바닥을 잡는 것은 사실상 불가능하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
It's crazy to think anybody's going to be smart enough to husband money and then just come out on the bottom tick in some crazy crisis and spend it all. There always is some person that does that by accident. But that's too tough a standard. Anybody expects that a Birkshire Hathaway is out of his mind.
Yeah. Charlie Charlie and I never were very good at dancing. But we really can't do that dance. No. No, we can't. By the way, almost nobody else can either. Not with tens of billions. Yeah. or hundreds of million. Mr. Buffett, you're well known for saying to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
But by all appearances, Bergkshire was fearful when others were most fearful in the early months of co dumping airline stocks at or near the low, not taking advantage of the fear gripping the market to buy shares of public companies at exceptional discounts and being hesitant to buy back significant amounts of Bergkshire stock at very attractive prices.
I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts surrounding this time and how Berkshire approached its decision-making specifically after it was assured through the car's act that the government would provide a robust backs stop to the financial markets. Well, of course, until both monetary and fiscal policy kicked in uh well, you knew we had a incredible problem and that our I am just as Charlie is the chief culture officer.
I'm the chief chief risk officer of Berkshire. That's that's my job that uh uh we hope we do well, but we want to be sure we don't do terribly. Uh but we didn't sell a uh substantial amount. I mean, we we're a company with six probably 700 billion dollars worth of businesses. Some we own in in their entirety, some we own a a piece of and I don't know whether we were sellers of maybe 1% of of the value of all the businesses we had at that period, but the airline it's kind of interesting with the airline businesses in particular and then I'll get to what was done in fiscal monetary policy.
But we we had a few people, various subsidiaries of Bergkshire that wanted to go in for help from the government and uh uh and some cases they had minority shareholders owned a few percent. They said, "Well, this, you know, we're going to get killed by what's happening uh when uh uh with the regulations that are being put out and then we're stopping the economy and and they said, "Everybody's going in for him and why don't we go in?" I said, "Uh, you know, Berkshire can handle it.
This is for people that can't handle what's happening and we so we're not applying." But the airlines were the most prominent beneficiaries of of uh of what took place immediately. They got 25 billion uh initially, most of which went to the big four airlines and some of which went in as grants, not not loans.
Uh and you know, I I I think that was fine public policy. I think it I always wish it could go to every restaurant and dry cleaner and every small business that really was out of business and had no no I mean they they were they were they were they were made toast of you know basically but the airlines clearly what happened was not their fault in any way shape or form.
It wasn't like 20089 when people blamed the banks and hated to seeing them help. So it was now airlines operate in bankruptcy. So it isn't like that uh three of the four big ones you know went through bankruptcy and within the previous dinner. So airlines were kind of used to operating in backwards, they would have kept operating, but it was perfectly proper for the airlines to be held.
The entire airline business, you know, you look at these figures of$2 trillion for Apple and so on. The entire big four airlines, they were they sold for about a hundred billion dollars almost. I mean, it's it's a very very small combined they wouldn't come close to making the the cut. I mean, they wouldn't be in the top 50.
Uh so anyway uh they went into the government. They needed a government help or they needed or they could would go bankrupt some of them. And uh and uh uh really the Congress but Steve Minutuchin too that they decided they deserve the help which I I do not quarrel with at all but imagine if Berkshire was the 10% holder which they had been of everyone airlines.
They said take get from Berkshire. I mean it's it' be like one of our they would have had they might have very well had a very very very different result if they'd had a very very very rich shareholder that own eight or 9% at uh and they didn't have that uh you know when they went in so our you might not have gotten the same result in fact I would I would think you probably wouldn't I mean I can just see the headlines now I mean they you know because you've seen the headlines on some companies that took 100 million or two you and really didn't need it and some of them gave it back and most of them gave it back.
Uh but you were look you're actually looking at probably at a different result than if we' kept our stock. But in any event, an industry that was really selling for less than hundred billion dollars uh lost uh significant amount of money. They lost perspective earning power. I mean right now the you know international travel's not come back but I would say overall too the the economic recovery has gone far better than you could say with any assurance.
So we uh we didn't like having as much money as we had in banks at that time. So I I cut back some of the bank investment but basically our net sales were about 1% or one and a half% and and looking back you know it have been better better to be buying but but I do not consider it I do not consider it a great moment in Bergkshire's history but I also uh we've got more net worth than any any company in the United States under accounting principles and we've got we've got six or 700 billion of generally good businesses And uh and uh I think as I think I think the airline business has done better because we've sold and I wish him well.
But I still I still wouldn't want to buy the by the airline business. international people really want to they want to travel uh for personal reasons and and uh uh business travel is is a tough thing and we've got a big exposure to business travel of course through the fact that we own 19% of American Express and we own Precision Cast Parts which services the the air business very so we've we've still got a big investment in uh air travel uh a big commit to it.
But but uh we wish the big four the best and and I think their managements have done a very good job during this period. Um more specifically beyond the airlines though just the idea and this came from several questions too including one from Chris Blaine just you spent years accumulating cash insisting you had your elephant gun ready.
The March 2020 listed equity selloff came with promises from the US government that they would do what it takes yet you sat on your hands. Please help me understand what I missed. I didn't get quite the last part. What was the final question? Just please help me understand what I missed. Why why didn't you use more of the cash at hand?
Oh, well, we we have about as a cash on hand has been about 15% of our our values of our businesses and uh that that's a healthy chunk. And I say it'll never get below 20 billion, but we're we're going to raise that number because it's just the size and importance of Berkshire is it uh but we we uh we could have deployed uh 50 or 75 billion uh and right before the Fed act.
I mean, we hit a point uh where the calls were two calls came in. Uh but there was two or three days. I nothing could happen. I when when Jay Powell acted as he did, that was incredibly important. I mean, I shouldn't say the Fed acted as they did, but they they moved with speed and a decisiveness on March 23rd.
That changed a situation where the economy had stopped. The government bond market was even disrupted. Berkshire Hathaway probably could not have gone out with a debt offering. uh the day before uh there was it didn't get a lot of publicity time but there was a run on money market funds a very substantial run and uh if you look at the numbers daily numbers on that it was a repeat of September 2008 and this time I give great credit to what Bernani and Pollson did but this time the ped knew that saying whatever it takes and saying it and demonst demonstrating it, which they did on March 23rd.
They took a market where Bergkshire couldn't sell bonds on the day before and turned it into one where Carnival Cruise Lines or something could sell it to a day or two later. It and there was, you know, it's record issuance of corporate debt and uh companies losing money, companies were closed, whatever it it was it was the most dramatic move that you can imagine.
and and at the time as I remember the chairman saying uh you know how about a little help on the on the fiscal front and then Congress acted very very big again the in 2008 and n they argued about you know we don't want to give any money to those dirty banks and all that sort of thing but this time there there really wasn't anybody to blame so uh they had they saw what was necessary and Congress responded so you had fiscal monetary policy that responded in a way that was incredible and It did the job and it did a it did I think it did a better job than than either the Fed or the Treasury or anybody expected.
I mean this this economy right now is 85% of it is is running in super high gear and people can't uh you know and and you're seeing some inflation and all of that. it it it's responded in an incredible way and we learned something out of 2008 and 9 and then we applied but I don't think it was a sure thing that would happen and the one thing about Berkshire is we never do we never want we don't want to depend on anybody we're not a bank we can't go to the Federal Reserve if we need money and we've got to we've got to be sure that under any circumstances any circumstances we can't solve nuclear war and maybe we can't you know there But you know Blanch Dubois if you remember and streak our car named Desire said I depend on the kindness of strangers.
You can't depend on the kindness of your friends if things really stop. I mean I've seen that in several different places and we were start we were seeing it on March the middle of March. Everybody was drawing down their credit lines. The banks did not expect that. They they just weren't sure they were going to be able to draw down their credit lines 10 days later.
And so they just drew them down and they would took the money out of mut money market funds. We got very promp I give great credit on both the monetary and fiscal side to what was done but I didn't think it was a sure thing that would happen and I didn't know how it would be implemented and it's worked I think it's worked better than just about anybody has expected. Uh, and I think well, you're seeing it now.
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