저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 유동성 공급이 주식·채권 가격을 떠받치고 있으며, 연준이 영원히 지원할 수 없으므로 현 시장 가격은 과대평가 위험이 있다. [시장 진영 구분] 팬데믹 통제와 성장 회복을 낙관하는 쪽과 회의적인 쪽으로 시장이 나뉜다. 마크스는 회의적 진영에 속한다. 그는 주가가 현재 경제 전망에 비해 지나치게 높다고 본다. [핵심 쟁점] 실제 중요한 구분은 주가가 왜 이 수준인지 이해하는 쪽과 이해하지 못하는 쪽이다. '연준과 싸우지 마라'는 격언을 이해하는 것이 핵심이다. [연준 권력의 한계] 연준은 큰 힘이 있지만 영원하지는 않다. 연준은 탄약이 무제한이라고 말했으나 마크스는 이를 의문시한다. 연준은 과거에 회사채를 사 본 적이 없었는데 이번에는 투자등급 회사채는 물론 투기등급 회사채까지 매입했다. [매입의 성격] 연준의 매입은 자산 가격을 올릴 수 있지만 매입이 계속되는 동안만 유지된다. 물기둥 위의 공이 비유로 제시되었다. 물이 멈추면 공은 떨어진다. 연준은 매입을 통해 사람들의 신뢰를 주입하고 민간이 매수 주체를 넘겨받기를 바라지만, 그것이 현재 수준에서 가능할지는 불확실하다. [과거 사례와 교훈] 금융위기 이후 10년간 QE1·2·3이 있었고, 연준이 유동성을 회수하려 할 때마다 투자자들이 반발했다. 테이퍼 텐트럼과 2018년 4분기 하락이 대표 사례다. 마크스는 지원 회수에 따른 하락 위험에 지나치게 집중하고, 지원을 영원히 회수하지 않을 때의 위험은 충분히 고려하지 않는다고 비판한다. [시장 가격 평가] 시장 참여자들은 주식과 채권이 연준이 지배하지 않았다면 형성되었을 가격보다 높게 거래된다고 믿는다. 연준이 물러서면 모두가 매수자 역할을 넘겨받겠지만, 현재 수준에서는 그렇지 않을 것이라고 본다. [조건과 결론] 10년물 국채금리가 3.25%에 도달한 2018년 10월 4일 이후 시장이 하락했다는 사례가 언급되었다. 마크스는 낮은 금리를 좋아하는 투자자들에게도 규율이 필요하다고 강조한다. [출연자 전망] 현 가격은 연준 지원에 의존하므로 조정 위험이 크다는 것이 전반적 견해다.
다듬은 글
the market as it always does has divided itself into two camps there are those who are optimistic about controlling the pandemic and reviving growth and there are those who aren't which camp do you fall into well I think that I think the real divide Eric is the ones who think it'll come easily and quickly and the ones who think it will come slowly and and ulting Lee and I'm in the latter category in that regard there's a divide between the people who think that stocks are fully too highly priced today given the economic outlook and there are people who think that's ok because the Fed will make sure that the whole economy and all the markets levitate and in many ways that's the more important divide today we all think that life will go on there will be return some part of the way to toward normalcy there will be a vaccine and so forth but the big divide is is the people who don't understand why stocks are where they are and the people who do understand it by interior izing the old motto you can't fight the Fed and and that is is I think an even bigger divide today what do you think can you fight the Fed I think that the Fed has great power but not forever and I think that first of all I don't think it really you know jpowel talked about the Fed having will not have the ability to run out of ammunition I don't know if the feds ammunition is really limitless I know that the Fed can cause markets to rise and stay up as long as it buys but I don't know if it can buy forever you know we're in we're in new territory here historically the Fed has never bought corporate securities this time around they included corporate securities and then they moved on to include non investment grade corporate securities and it's buying can make these things rise but only as long as it's buying I think of it as kind of you know we've seen these things where there's a there's kind of a column of water and then a ball sitting on top of the water and as long as the water's forced up the ball stays there water stops ball falls down to earth so obviously the Fed hopes that its buying will among other things inject confidence into people and that they'll take over and buying but that remains to be seen and it remains to be seen whether that buying will be at today's levels is there any reason Howard to expect that's going to happen let's just talk about the corporate bond market but use as an analogy the ten years to follow the financial crisis we had QE one two three and every time the Fed tried to pull liquidity out of the market it seemed investors rebelled there was the taper tantrum there was the fourth quarter of 2018 and other instances are you suggesting that the moment the Fed tries to withdraw liquidity from a market that that really prices itself on solvency more than anything else the same thing is going to happen I think I think it has to happen to some extent I think well that you know this is the dilemma can the Fed keep keep it up forever and if it doesn't keep it up forever will the prices weaken I mean those of us in the markets believe that stocks and bonds as well are selling at prices that they wouldn't sell at if the Fed were not the dominant force at at prices that would be determined by just the outlook for the companies and so number one you know if the Fed were to receive that look we would all take over as buyers but I don't think at these levels and you know you mentioned the difficulty of withdrawing the support I personally believe that there is too much concern with the downside of withdrawing the support and not enough concern with the downside of never withdrawing the support and I think that if it had been done earlier and gradually it could have been done and as you say there was a bit of a temper tantrum in the fourth quarter of 18 when the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury reached three and a quarter I think that was October fourth and the market started to go down from there so of course you know the kids like candy and investors like low rates but we have to have discipline also
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