저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가 폭락이 이 세대의 경제를 바꿀 것이며 거시 환경은 악화될 것이라는 비관적 전망 영상. [테슬라] 장기적으로는 강세 입장을 유지하며 주가가 두 배, 네 배까지 오를 수 있고 청정에너지 전환으로 최대 1만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 언급. 다만 현재 경제 상황을 고려하면 단기 충격은 불가피하다는 입장. [통화·재정 정책] 2008년 금융위기 이후 각국 정부가 약 30~35조 달러를 시장에 풀었으며 이는 자산 가격 왜곡과 인플레이션 압력을 낳았다고 주장. 현대통화이론(MMT)을 비판하고 재정 지출 억제 필요성 강조. [긴축 전망] 이 과잉 유동성을 회수하는 데 약 3년이 걸릴 것이며 세계 GDP의 약 절반 규모 자금을 거둬들이는 과정이라고 설명. 현재 하락장은 장기간 이어질 약세장의 초입이라고 판단. [물가] 향후 3~5개월 CPI가 매우 나쁠 것이라 예상. 주거비(렌트)가 가장 큰 항목이라 지목하며 렌트 지표가 계속 상승할 것이라고 봄. 유가 배럴당 105달러 수준, 러시아의 유럽 천연가스 공급 교란 우려 언급. [실적·증시] 월가가 내년 실적 증가를 예상하지만 에너지·원가 상승으로 판매 감소가 불가피해 실적은 올해와 내년 모두 하락할 것이라 주장. 주식 전반이 더 낮은 가격으로 재평가(리프라이싱)되어야 한다고 봄. [연준] 연준이 과잉 대응(overcorrect)할 가능성이 크며, 모든 경로가 주식 하락으로 귀결된다고 전망. [테슬라 실적 방어력] 테슬라는 다른 완성차 대비 실적 방어력이 강할 것으로 예상. 다년간 50% 이상 인도량 성장을 제시했고 올해 60% 성장도 가능하다는 가이던스 언급. 가계 저축 증가와 은행 자본 충실로 이번 침체는 깊지 않을 것이라는 시각. [결론] 단기~중기 약세, 장기 테슬라 낙관이라는 이원적 시각.
다듬은 글
did you know that according to Chairman of palahapja the upcoming Tesla stock crash will change this generation it is a well-known fact that Tesla is the market leader in the electric vehicle industry and people are anticipating more Innovations from the company make sure to stay tuned and keep watching to find out what pelahopcha meant Innovation is what makes the world move forward the invention Evolution and innovation of things signal change and improvement from what people are used to in line with that Tesla is known as a company that introduces a lot of Innovations in different aspects and different areas today senior executive at Facebook from 2007 to 2011.
CNN describes soon as the founder and CEO of Social Capital whose mission is to advance Humanity by solving the world's hardest problems with an estimated net worth of around 1.2 billion dollars as of April 2021. palahopcha is ranked 2378 on the Forbes list of billionaires for 2021. Social Capital was founded to invest in companies and Fields being ignored by other Venture capitalists like Health financial services and education The Firm has since expanded to invest in text companies like Amazon Tesla and Slack Paula hopjet is a known Tesla Bull and he said that Tesla stock has a bright future and will be worth double and even quadruple in the years to come he also said that Tesla is a clean energy firm that will possibly overpower the fossil fuel industry which will eventually allow Tesla stock to over her form allowing a much bigger opportunity to make its way up to ten thousand dollars however despite being a Tesla bull he cannot ignore the fact that the present state of the economy is not at its best Paula hapchia said that the thing that you have to do before you talk about what is happening now is go back and start at the end of the great financial crisis the reason is that there were a bunch of people coming out of the Guff who were confused about what the US government and some European governments were doing the global financial crisis or kef refers to the period of extreme stress in Global Financial markets and banking systems between mid-2007 and early 2009.
he said that at the time there was the risk of a huge financial contagion and so the stepped in and the FED started using its balance sheet to buy toxic assets the fed or Federal Reserve System is the central banking system of the United States of America it was created on December 23 1913 with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act after a series of financial panics led to the desire for central control of the monetary system to alleviate financial crisis in line with that a lot of governments did it and then there was a body of people who coined the modern monetary Theory which in simple terms is like saying hey you can keep printing money and introducing it into the economy to smooth things out and to drive long-term growth by definition modern monetary Theory or modern money Theory month is a heterodox macroeconomic theory that describes the currency as a public Monopoly and unemployment as evidence that a currency monopolist is overly restricting the supply of the financial assets needed to pay taxes and satisfy savings desires this theory states that government spending should not be restrained by fears of rising debt it turns out that several government officials fell for it but it does not address the opportunity cost and distributional consequences of the monetization of deficits by the Central Bank egg its impact on asset prices which may affect both the demand and Supply size of the economy and therefore the inflation constraint even before full employment is reached Paula hapchia said fast forward to 2022 so 14 years later governments around the world had printed something to the tune of about 30 to 35 treading dollars of money into the economy that should have never been there so the thing to remember is that we have not necessarily just been obfuscating true supply and demand in the last six or eight months when we've been talking about a recession or inflation we've been actually doing it since 2008 it's just that it's been building up in the system do you think Tesla stock is worth buying today share your thoughts in the comments section below according to palahopcha people have to realize that all of that money somehow needs to get destroyed in some way shape or form if a true economic equilibrium is meant to be found he added that what is true Supply and true demand in the absence of government sloshing money around trying to prop up things that should not be propped up buying votes or all the other grips these folks have engaged in in the last decade and a half have to get undone just said that if you think about taking 30 trillion dollars out of the global economy is equivalent to 85 trillion in world GDP so it's almost half of an entire Year's worth of global GDP he said that it will take around three years of the slow meticulous running off of money instead of reintroducing new money he said it seems like we're at the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out and that's separate from whether we're in a recession or not that's just the bear Market that we're in according to palahopcha the CPI or consumer price index for the next three to five months will probably be very bad he said that there are a handful of components that have gotten completely run away first and probably the biggest one is rent rent works on a three-month flag and he said we're going to reintroduce what the true owner's equivalent rent is in display so that we can already forecast xfi is going up with oil worth 105 bucks a barrel and Russia is basically trying to break the bank of Europe by now messing with their Nat gas supplies furthermore the German energy Minister said that if that happens it could be a contagion equivalent to Layman Brothers with respect to energy lemon Brothers Holdings angst was a Global Financial Services firm founded in 1847.
before filing for bankruptcy in 2008 lemon was the fourth largest Investment Bank in the United States with about two five zero zero zero employees worldwide palahopcha said that by playing all of these things out what you have is rampant runaway costs and those have no mechanism to get back in check in the absence of some real governmental changes in the policy especially in terms of the Ukraine Russia war and how the government intends to either work or cooperate or fight with China inevitably all of these things have to get solved in the absence of that prices are going to continue to go up that said people start to wonder what will the FED do about this Palo hop show believes that the FED will overcorrect because there is so much pressure for them to act all roads I think lead to lower Equity prices says Palo hopja while Wall Street announced record earnings this year and predicted earnings to continue to go up next year Paul hopja thinks otherwise he said how do you see earnings continuing to go up into these prints like this when you cannot pass through you know 80 to 90 increases in energy in cogs and whatnot you'll have to sell fewer things because there will be fewer people with jobs to buy things Paul Hopkins thinks that Wall Street is wrong on that account and believes that earnings are going to go down this year and will definitely go down next year contrary to what Wall Street claims I think what probably happens is that the entire world of equities needs to get repriced at a lower price still despite the threat of a recession it does not seem like it will significantly hurt Tesla stocks in fact Tesla's business is expected to hold up much better compared to other automakers Tesla has previously guided for over 50 delivery growth over a multi-year period while indicating that it could approach 60 growth this year which signals that demand growth should hold up even in the event of a downturn moreover economic indicators do not point to a very deep recession this time around with household savings rising post-pandemic and Banks also remaining well capitalized make sure to visit our Channel and watch our other videos for more Tesla stock content
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