저자: MikeNovogratz · 외국인
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비트코인 랠리가 빠르지만 Novogratz는 장기적으로 크게 오를 것이라 봄. 주요 주장: 비트코인 9,000달러 돌파, 시총 1,600억 달러, 1년 내 시총 1조~2조 달러 가능. 근거: 금 시총 약 7.5조 달러 대비 디지털 금 역할, 나스닥 1999년 버블 고점 시총 6조 달러와 비교. 단기: 투기 열기와 개인 유입으로 단기 고점 우려, 조정 가능성 언급. 가격 전망: 2018년 말 비트코인 4만 달러 가능, 이더리움도 현재 대비 3배 가능. 수급: 신규 공급 반응 없음, 채굴량 한정(2,100만 개), 약 300~400만 개 분실 추정으로 유통량 감소. 선물: 12월 10일 CME 비트코인 선물 출시가 제도권 편입 신호, 단기 흥행은 제한적이나 장기적으로 대차·금리 곡선 형성 촉매. 리스크: 대형 거래소 해킹, 규제 당국 태도 급변. 투자 조언: 개인은 순자산의 1~3%, 여유 있으면 5~10% 이내 권고. 본인은 순자산의 20~30% 보유. 이더리움: 비트코인과 용도 차이(이더리움은 탈중앙 컴퓨팅 플랫폼), 분산 투자 중.
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see Modi's back at headquarters breaking all down hey Seema hey Melissa that's right what's striking is just a speed of the Bitcoin rally the move from 8,000 to 9,000 took only seven days the fastest thousands the fastest a thousand point jump on record for the cryptocurrency and at nine thousand five hundred eighty six dollars the coins of market cap has reached a hundred and sixty billion dollars making it bigger than GE Boeing and Disney coinbase the largest Bitcoin exchange added an estimated 300,000 users just in the past week alone as more retail investors opened accounts during the holiday weekend coinbase now has more users and brokerage Charles Schwab which in mid-november reported it had ten point six million active brokerage accounts in October compared to coin basis eleven point seven million users that according to data compiled by Atlanta digital currency fund while Bitcoin continues to climb but more influential investors like Citadel CEO Ken Griffin remain cautious here's what he told CBC's Leslie picker earlier today on squawk alley Bitcoin right now has many of the elements of the tool Paul mania that we saw back hundreds of years ago in Holland but these bubbles tend to end in tears and I worry about how this bubble might end my next big test for Bitcoin will be the seamy group's launch of the Bitcoin futures contract set for December 10 plus as we were discussing all right Seema Thank You Seema Modi with the latest on Bitcoin at BK what do you make of this recent win are you tearing up the tulip bubble analogy to me is laughable I mean listen tulip bulbs didn't disrupt an industry this is a technology that's disrupting financial services I can't point to exactly what tulip bulbs disrupted so I don't know I think it's a terrible about that for them and people should stop stop using it in terms of what drove this a lot of retail by really interesting to see the surge of buying after Thanksgiving so I put a little chart here together you see that small little box were Bitcoin and all the other three currencies that coinbase trades going down that's during Thanksgiving people literally eating turkey talking the family telling them how great crypto currencies it and then look Serg as soon as the banks open on Friday and money can fiat money can come into the system boom you get this massive surge up to three coins that are traded at coin base which is where everybody is kind of the funnel that US investors come in so really interesting I think a lot of retail people just said hey I want in on this trend Oh back in October gallon seeing about the Galaxy investment partner CEO and hedge fund legend Mike Novogratz called for Bitcoin a rally to $10,000 here's what he said it would not surprise me if in the next six to ten months for over 10,000 well the rate bitcoins going we will need a couple of months of cryptocurrency has almost doubled since that call sitting at less than 500 bucks away from that $10,000 mark we will probably hit 10,000 the next five minutes or so question now how much higher could Bitcoin go what is fueling this rally we have brought Mike Novogratz back to answer those burning questions for us Mike it's always great to see you thanks good to see ya what's your next call my next girl put me on the spot I said I need to start with you know trees don't grow to the sky and the pace in this movies been really fast and so on one hand lots of the speculative sensors are out you know the amount of retail customers coming in the amount of phone calls I get and that gets me a little bit nervous that we could have a short term top on the other hand when I step back I'm like wait a minute the whole market cap of all the crypto was three hundred billion dollars that's nothing the the Nasdaq had its high in the 1999 bubble was six trillion and the Nasdaq was a us-led you know bubble this is a global phenomena 60 70 % of all trading volume and these cryptos are happening in Japan and Korea and so I have a sense that this is gonna go a lot further when I try to think evaluation Bitcoin really has taken the use case of digital gold gold eight trillion or seven and a half trillion dollars and so at 150 billion Bitcoin you know 30 times 40 times 50 times higher than here then you're starting to look like bitcoins replace goal or at least it's it's on parity of gold and so my short-term call I guess is things have gone pretty far and maybe you'll backfill a little bit but in over the medium term you know this thing is gonna go a lot higher I I said recently I thought total market cap by the end of next year would be a trillion you know that's probably a little light but if it's a trillion to two trillion that's kind of 6x from where we are now and that's it's not all gonna go into Bitcoin 260 thousand from where we are sorry six times as fines okay six times 200 okay okay 306 times trainer billion gets you a two trillion dollar market cap by the end of 2018 and you know there's a theorem there's Bitcoin there's Bitcoin cash there's a OS there's all kinds of protocols so what are the assumptions we made the parallel to the Nasdaq during the bubble days and total market cap of the Nasdaq back then what is the Assumption on how high how high Bitcoin could go is there an assumption in your when I look at gold is it and is it all the market cap of gold right now like what why not in some ways and so each of these tokens represent individual ecosystems right there's one for cloud computing there's one for file sharing there's one for online gambling Bitcoin is is the the ecosystem of digital money or digital store wealth and it's really more digital store a wealth or digital gold and so if Gold's a trillion I'm not I don't understand why Bitcoin can't get there so Mike everybody asked me what derails this what keeps you up at night right we know the bull case it's working but you wake up one day and this one thing happens what is it that scares you well I'd hate for myself to get hacked because that would really suck but a really major exchange being hacked in a major way we've had plenty of small acts people looking and small in comparison to market cap but a major hack or a real change of mindset on the regulators right now most regulators have been working with the system we work a lot ourselves with the regulators if for some reason they woke up and did an about-face that would would be no good so Mike you mentioned that you're kind of getting a little nervous about the speculative fervor you know I've heard you on a few occasions talk about you started buying aetherium in the low and single digits right so now it's it's just below 500 so how do you get you know all people are opening up these hundreds of thousands of coinbase accounts just in the last couple weeks how do you go out and talk to these people about what the opportunity is for you you knew that you could lose a few dollars when you paid a few dollars for now it's almost 500 dollars and it's really hard to talk about the long-term vision to two trillion and all of these you know what I mean oh honey how do you so what I tell people you know the retail type customer I said put one two three percent your net worth in it because if it goes down 50 percent it's like buying one two three percent of Google and it goes down 50 percent for wealthier people who can afford a little bigger loss yeah take it to five percent or even 10 percent but I don't recommend anybody throw their entire net worth in what is your net worth in terms of how much is tied up spending and you know I'm probably over 20 percent at this point and no because it keeps going up and I take some off and then I get why my taken off on buy more maybe it seemed to 30 percent what do you think about futures the seamy is gonna launch the futures for Bitcoin December 10th is the date right now what does that do to Bitcoin if anything does it suppress volatility does it cause more volatility I think in the short run the future will not be as exciting as that people are hoping it will because it's gonna take a while for it to build liquidity the really promising part of the future though is when you have a future you'll need a stock borrow you know and all of a sudden you'll have a lending market in Bitcoin and as soon as you have a lending market in Bitcoin guess what then you have an interest rate curve in Bitcoin and all of a sudden Bitcoin starts looking more like a currency than it ever did you know it's very difficult right now that's not there's not an efficient market to buy it to borrow or lend against all of these coins and I think the future market will really accelerate that is there a trading opportunity surrounding the launch and the early days of Bitcoin futures I think this march of institutionalization of the whole crypto space is just a positive and so the fact that the CME is credential izing of this is a huge win and I think that's part of what's driven the price up here I think once it gets going and starts building liquidity just more access to the market Mike you mentioned the Bitcoin with the yield curve could look more like a currency so what if anything does the future of Bitcoin mean to currencies the US dollar of being global currencies in the short run nothing why because currencies need real stability right I said this before the the dollar versus the yen which I focused on very closely for 25 years of my life quite frankly never moves more than plus or minus 6% here maybe 10% my wife once said your whole career looking at that little squiggly line bitcoin is moving too fast and too much volatility to never really be a currency right this water can't cost a dollar one day and six dollars a month later and so until there's real stability in price it won't be used as airs will say that that's the exact reason why bitcoin isn't any kind of currency that it's a little bit gold you don't the last time you bought a pair of shoes in gold right never or even pair of shoes in a quarter of a googol share never the argument is also that you can't speculate in currencies when in fact I think people are speculating in currencies all the time the ranges are then levered up but they're smaller ranges but they are but you know you talk about the risks here and you talk about you getting hacked how do you protect the digital wallet in this day and age and what are people doing to because the amount of wealth that they have stored here is almost this is the part that's difficult for me not difficult for me to see why it's going higher and why people want on how do you protect yourself so you know when it was a small amount of money you didn't worry about it so much it becomes a big amount of money you start worrying about it a lot the exchanges the custody places and places like us who both self custody and use custody places you take your keys off the the internet and so it's cold cold storage you actually put your private keys on a computer in a safe and you put that safe in a really safe place that's safe the the percentage of your coins that you want to leave active to be able to trade back and forth those have more risk out now let's say you put some on coin base and some on Gemini in some of the various exchanges each of those places is doing the same thing they're keeping 90% of their coins offline and so if I put 10% of my claims online in 10 from places 1% in each and they're doing that all of a sudden have very very little you know at risk to a hack and so that's why this is a lot safer than it feels as long as you're using prudent risk management I'm gonna go back to the first question that I asked you in this interview and that is your forecast for Bitcoin give me a level for 2018 where do you see Bitcoin going you're very decisive in your interview listen I Bitcoin could be at 40,000 at the end of the 2018 it really easily could and I think aetherium you know which I think we'll just touched 500 close could could be triple where it is as well there's a big wave of money coming not just here but all around the world and you know as we push more people into the system both retail and institutional what's different about these coins than other commodities so like when the price of oil went up to $150 what happened you know we started drilling in the Canadian tar sands we started going deep-sea in Brazil we started investing in solar and fracking and everything else and there's a supply response there is no supply response here so it's a speculators dream in that as buying apples there's there's no new supply that comes out and so every price moves gets exaggerated it's gonna get exaggerated on the way up and there will be 50% Corrections it will get exaggerated a long way down so people read it people read about the mining farms all over the world in China they have huge warehouses and they're just filled with Bitcoin miners so it doesn't count as supply coming on in response to prices that are going higher no so that's just what it means is as price go higher it gets more difficult to mine those coins because it's more valuable more people are chasing each coin but there's a total amount of bitcoins that will ever be mined it was 21 million apparently up to 3 million or 4minute and lost forever and so total supply of Bitcoin is really set and so the miners really are used to authenticate and validate the blockchain so here's a question this is from my mother who just opened her own coin box account and this was months ago so mom if you're listening would you rather Bitcoin or aetherium here or like let's throw that in of the three you know I have roughly half of Bitcoin and half of aetherium I don't like likely nearly as much it seems like the poor man's bit going to make Bitcoin in a theorem have very different use cases Bitcoin really is this ecosystem of digital store wealth and aetherium is one of the the contenders to be the ecosystem of really kind of the decentralized computer that most of these projects get built off of but I'm also spreading my bets because you know I learned in the Chinese internet where I picked one company which went to zero and every other company would have made me a fortune that nobody is smart enough to really understand how this future of a industry that's changing as rapidly as this one is and so I've got lots of that says hedges in other ecosystems you know and so that makes it that makes it kind of like a half venture business and half long/short equity business okay Mike good to see you again hope you come back soon Rachel mcgrath galaxy investments okay well it's interesting that Mike talked about about the mining and the supply response right we had this report that possibly three to four million of the Bitcoin are lost or locked up or something like that so if you think about it there's 21 million bitcoins that'll ever be out there there's 16 million in existence let's say there's 4 million that are lost that can never be moved now you're a 20 million that means there's only a million Bitcoin left for people to buy in a sense so it's a massive I think that was also part of the big move that we had that's a 25% of the supply that has been taken out so that I think was really interesting one thing is very different like Mike said about this versus commodities I'm gonna bring something up Steve Grasso's mentioned this is important to mentioned overstock was a $30 stock when Steve started talking about it on the back of what they were doing in Bitcoin the stock traded 65 70 today I bring it up because it reversed it closed down nine and a half percent you know I'm again I'm not certain that overstock where did today downgrade based upon this exact very interesting though so what does it mean for the price I don't know but I think it's worth watching because it's you were trading in tandem yeah I would just make one other what he just mentioned about a Mike mentioned about Bitcoin versus etherium when you think about if tyrion it really is more of a VC centric sort of I think you know that this is what companies and entire platforms are being built on that so to me two very different things the store value at Bitcoin you think it's going to $40,000 but there's gonna be a lot of opportunities built on the etherion Network just a quick Price is Right on Mike's forecast Bitcoin to 40,000 next year is the price right higher or lower know what I'll go out on a limb I'll go higher I don't know the higher from exactly here we might get a dip first but also you higher all right still ahead Amazon soaring to new highs after crushing Black Friday but if history is any indication the top could be in for the year we will explain plus it is a rally that Wall Street jobs can't get behind a majority of strategists missing the mark this year and it looks like there could be a bunch of timid booths next year too but we'll tell you why that might be a good thing for the market but
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