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That's where we start today, including the markets and your money. Stocks rise as Anthropic IPO revives AI trading. You have chips, memory, even neo-clouds now in the " green zone." They brushed aside Elon Musk's warning that more than 200 companies in the space could face, quote, "guppy-level death ." But take a look at this graph from Bespoke .
Red dots indicate days when the S&P 500 fell by at least 1%, even though there were more stocks that rose than those that fell. Seven of the 13 such days since 1990 fell in 1999 and 2000. In other words, is this pattern re- emerging as a sign of a peak, a warning signal that the bubble may soon burst?
Let's ask our guests. Ed Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research, and Ari Wald is the head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer. This is a question about the schedule, Ari, so I'll start with you. Hmm, what do you think about that ? Well, as for the bubble bursting—no. We argued: why should we expect a bubble-like collapse without the bubble profits?
But I still believe that the long-term " bullish" trend persists, but within it, as they say, there are intermediate cycles, and we are a little concerned about certain signs of deterioration in the internal breadth of the market. I think the main positive is that risky assets are oversold. I think we're still ready for the end-of-year rally.
What will this rally look like? Will it be undermined by lower highs in small- cap indices, leadership and credit, which could set the stage for a reset year in 2027, but again , in the context of the market. How long has it been since the 10% pullback? This, I think, probably happened in ... Something happened in the first or second quarter.
Did we have one this year or in 2023? Yes. March, April. Okay, so it was. Aha. Should we...I'm just trying to contextualize this because I like your opening line. If we're going to... Wait, say it again. We should have bubble-like profits. How do you say that? Well, we should have bubble-like profits.
The sustainability of long-term growth is underestimated by Wall Street. We don't see any comparisons with the late 1990s in our work. Come on, join in. Well, everyone is expecting a bubble or saying it's a bubble, so from a contrarian perspective, which I like to have from time to time...I'm not concerned about it.
I think AI is coming out of the "bubble" without bursting it, and that's the best solution to all these concerns. It seems to me that the fact that credit markets, particularly the bond market, are actually starting to be very picky about what rating a bond should have . I think they are moving even faster than the rating agencies , and that is a good thing.
If the bond market regulates the availability of capital for the AI industry, I think we're in good shape. So, let's go back to the beginning, where we mentioned Elon Musk's tweet over the weekend about guppy-like profits. For the 90% of the audience that has n't seen it, it's probably very confusing.
He posted a tweet where he actually revealed the names of some companies, Mm. which, I assume—because again, I don't want to speak for Elon Musk—he believed or implied that these were some kind of " bubble fish" that would soon be M-m. dead or at least wounded. I'm not entirely sure how to understand this.
How do you understand this and what do you think about his comment? Well, look, I think every technological or industrial revolution is always accompanied by a huge influx of capital, because everyone is so excited about the concept. And then there's too much competition, some companies start to close, and borrowers find that lenders are becoming much more cautious with them.
So, again, I think there will be some failures, but it's an ecosystem, a kind of "brotherhood" where they will all save each other. You know, Tropic will go public, they'll have a lot of cash, and if they need to help Neo Cloud, they'll do it. Yes, let's talk about the return on investment in AI, because despite the huge spending and hype, a new report from Apollo Investments suggests that companies are not yet seeing a clear benefit from spending on AI and may be looking for cheaper ways to access it.
This is interesting food for thought, but I wonder if it could impact costs if he is right about the companies' opinions. So, what can this lead to? It's probably a problem in the macro markets if some of these companies, as Ed said, " bloat" or " pop," or whatever word you want to use. Yes, we are not a technology company, but we have a technical specialist who does everything for us , and he uses Claude all the time.
He says he works at the speed of light, compared to how it used to be. So I think everyone has that preference, and I don't think Apollo's view is correct.
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