저자: Dale · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 약 80,200달러에서 거래 중이며 2개월 가까이 이어진 상승 추세선 안에 머물고 있어, 추세선 이탈 여부가 핵심이라는 결론이다. 비트코인 기술적 분석: 10월 1일부터 이어진 추세선 아래에서 움직이고 있으며, 최근 약 84,000달러 저항을 돌파하지 못했다. 81,000달러가 지지였으나 깨졌고 이제 저항으로 바뀌었다는 주장이다. 1시간 기준 79,300~80,700달러 박스권에 갇혀 있다고 본다. 단기 시나리오(화자 제시 확률): 기본 시나리오 50%로 79,800~80,900달러 좁은 횡보, 상승 시나리오 25%로 81,200~81,800달러 회복, 하락 시나리오 25%로 79,000달러 아래 및 74,000달러 재시험. 화자 본인은 24시간 내 80,700~80,800달러 회복 가능성을 제시하며 기본·상승 시나리오 쪽에 기운다고 말했다. 거시 이벤트: FOMC 회의가 이틀 남았으며, 화자는 인플레이션 데이터 때문에 연준이 공격적일 것으로 보고 회의를 부정적으로 본다. 다만 금리 인상은 10월보다는 11~12월 가능성이 높다고 추정했다. 바이낸스 AI 예측은 지난번 81,000~82,000달러 예측이 빗나갔다고 인정했다. 기관 매수: Strive(Vivek 측)가 약 5억 달러 규모 비트코인을 추가 매수해 총 43,000개(약 34억 5천만 달러)를 보유한다고 언급했다. 화자는 이를 강세 신호로 해석하며, 최근 4개월간 매입 속도가 가속됐다고 주장했다. 기관 보유량 순위에서도 Metaplanet, 21 Capital 등을 언급했다. 비관론: Peter Schiff은 비트코인 하락을 예상하며 다음 지지선을 75,000달러로 봤다. 금요일 ETF에서 약 1억 3,700만 달러(또는 3,800만 달러 수준으로 정정) 유출이 있었고, 화자는 FOMC 전 추가 ETF 유출이 나오면 77~78,000달러까지 밀릴 수 있다고 봤다. 퀀트(QNT): 최근 26% 반등해 약 208~210달러이며, 전일 고점은 220달러다. 최고가 대비 50% 하락 후 회복 중이고, 특별한 뉴스 없이 기술적 매수세가 유입되는 것으로 보인다. 화자는 130달러 부근까지 조정 시 DCA(분할 매수)를 할 계획이라고 밝혔다. 영상 말미에 자사 유료 텔레그램 시그널 그룹 홍보가 포함되어 있으며, 'financial advice 아님' 면책 문구가 있으나 화자는 이를 자체 신호 수익 홍보에 사용했다.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin is going down, ladies and gentlemen. Today, Bitcoin is trading at around $80,200. Just two days ago, on Saturday , over the weekend, Bitcoin dropped to around $79,200. It almost dropped to $78,000. But look at the line we drew here from the beginning of the series. Now, Bitcoin touched our trend line and bounced upwards.
And now, trading is taking place within this trend line that we drew a couple of days ago. So, continue trading within this trend line. It didn't break and it looks like it's going down. Meanwhile, Quant, the token of Quant Network, is rising again after a series of drops of 50% from its all-time high.
And now, in fact, it's recovering since Saturday, ironically, the day Bitcoin fell. It is recovering by about 26%. It is currently trading at around $208. Today's previous high was $220. So what's happening with Bitcoin? What's happening with the Quant Network? Okay, tune in to today's update video.
Welcome to Crypto Ninjas. My name is Dale and I've been involved in the world of cryptocurrencies for over 5 years . We have worked with the most important brands in the sector and, on an ongoing basis, with their main global partners. We have a growing ecosystem of websites, X channels, trading Telegram channels, and YouTube channels to help educate, but more importantly, help you make money.
So, if you want to make real money with crypto, take it seriously and click on the links below. And, of course, this is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing I say can be interpreted as such. So be responsible with your own investment decisions. Thank you so much. Let's talk about Bitcoin, friends.
Right now, over a period of 1 hour, as you can see, Bitcoin is moving within this small box at this moment, okay? The maximum will be around $80,700 and the minimum around $79,300, more or less. It has moved within this range below this trend line, okay? And it's finding it difficult to break out of this trend.
As I said before, it is a very important trend line that Bitcoin has been trading on since October 1st. Okay, look at that. Since October 1st, it has been operating within this trend line. It previously broke that trend line, a very strong candlestick, okay? and approached $84,000, which I have also said is a crucial resistance that Bitcoin has to break with a strong green candle to confirm the breakout and head towards around $86,000, $87,000.
However, none of the news or macroeconomic data support a Bitcoin breakout, okay? And so, Bitcoin had a consecutive 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 , almost nine red candles on the 4-hour chart, which wiped out all the gains we had made in a couple of days. And Bitcoin dropped to $81,000. And I believe it was on Friday when I made the last video updating the price of Bitcoin and where it's headed.
And you know, I told you that if you were going to buy Bitcoin and be careful, you have to maintain this level of around $81,000 for it to continue rising because it is clearly, as you can see, trading within this support right here . Okay guys, in case you don't know about support, this is support , my important support.
It has broken below that support, and now that support has become the resistance. And now it has to overcome that resistance at $81,000 to go back up to $83,000, $84,000. To quote inside, you know, this box here, right? But yes, he's not succeeding. He's having trouble doing it right now, and it looks like it's going to go down.
And keep in mind that there are only 2 days left until the FOMC meeting. OK? And since we all agree, it's going to be a terrible meeting, okay? Because the Federal Reserve is likely to be aggressive with the current inflation data and all that. Now , we don't know if interest rates are going to rise or not, right?
I believe that between 80 and 90% of the analyst's users do not expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October, but rather in December or November. Around that time, but at least we have one more at the end of the year. We all agree on that, right? But I don't know . I have a terrible feeling about this because there are only 2 days left until the meeting and Bitcoin is bleeding, is n't it?
Obviously, it's not a good sign. That's not a good sign. But we'll have to wait until the FOMC meeting to see what happens with the decisions on interest rates, wo n't we? Now, let's see what AI is saying about Bitcoin right now because in the last video I made, I used Binance AI Pro to tell us where Bitcoin is headed in the next 24 hours.
And it said there was a 55% chance it would move between $81,000 and $82,000. Obviously, I was wrong. But it also said there was a 30% chance that Bitcoin would go down due to a bear market, right? Dropping to $80,000. And he was right. 30% were right. And only 15% was bullish for Bitcoin. And, obviously, it didn't happen.
Well, I still say that it's partially correct. I mean, 30% of the bear market happened. I'm sorry, but it's not the bear market, but the bearish movement of Bitcoin that is happening. And it happened, right? So, we'll trust it again. So, try again . And I ask you to give me your perspective on the price of Bitcoin for October 26th, which is today.
50% of the base case occurs. This is the most likely scenario I believe Bitcoin will reach. Narrow range between $79,800 and $80,900. Choppy consolidation after today's rise. The rebound from $ 79,369 was real, but it lacks continuity. So, 79,800 to 80,900. That's what he believes Bitcoin will achieve.
So, let me go ahead and draw it right here. Very good, great. But, uh, as far as the bullish scenario is concerned, it actually increased to 25%. Recovery to 81.2 and 81.8, right? 25% will happen. 50% of it will happen. What about the bass player stage? Okay, 25 % bearish. Try 79,000 and 74,000 again.
79,400. Comment below what you think about the price of Bitcoin in the next 24 hours. Do you think it will go up? Do you think it will go down? Or do you think it will stay within this range? Personally, I would say that I lean more towards the base scenario and the bullish scenario. I mean, it's not going to go up to 81,900, but I think, you know, short-term speaking, in 24 hours, Bitcoin is going to recover.
It's been, you know, moving sideways within this range for quite some time. So, in the short term, it could recover to this point, right? So far. It will recover to at least 80,700, close, and maybe even surpass that 80,800 range. Okay? Maybe. Perhaps, but we'll see how Bitcoin does. OK? It's not financial advice or anything.
As for the news, we have several news items about Bitcoin. First, Vivax Strife bought about 500 million worth of Bitcoin; They now own 43,000 units with an approximate value of $3.45 billion. That's incredible. So, in the bear market, when Bitcoin is down—I'm sorry , it's not a bear market, but Bitcoin is down—nobody is buying anything, MicroStrategy is silent and they're accumulating around $500 million in Bitcoin.
That was huge. The last time MicroStrategy bought Bitcoin, they only bought it for 26 or 20...No, sorry. About 217 Bitcoins. That turned out to be like 26 or 28 million dollars, right? And they just bought $500 million worth of Bitcoin. That's incredible. Where does Strife rank on the list of the largest Bitcoin holders?
Okay? Actually, right here . Let's take a look. So, Strife is obviously the largest Bitcoin treasury company, with 848,517 Bitcoins. 4.04% of the total Bitcoin supply, right? And we have Meta Planet, 21 Capital, and then we have Strife from Vivacro. There it is . 43,000 Bitcoins. TRUE? They surpassed Mara Holdings, which has had about 35,000 Bitcoins, I don't know, forever, right?
And I think Strike, you know, if they continue with this movement, they'll soon be number two. Surpassing Meta Planet because Strike, you know, and this is what I just researched in AI very quickly. Strike started buying Bitcoin on September 25th, right? So it's been more than a year. And they already have 43,000 Bitcoins, right?
They bought Bitcoin very quickly on the open market from spring until mid-2026, right? They started buying a lot of Bitcoin just a few months ago. 19,000 Bitcoins in June 2026, crossing that line. And since June they went up to buying 24,000 Bitcoins for how much? If my calculations are correct, 4 months.
In 4 months they bought 24,000 Bitcoins. TRUE? As you can see, they are accelerating the purchase of Bitcoin. What do they know? Why are people buying Bitcoin at, you know, $80,000, like in the last 4 months? Do they think a Bitcoin bull market is coming? That's why they're accelerating the rate or speed of accumulation, because they believe that, in the coming months, Bitcoin will no longer be at $80,000 or $70,000.
It's going to be at $100,000 and by the time we buy it, it will be too late. Therefore, we need to increase this, you know? I don't know, you tell me. But the rate at which they've been buying Bitcoin recently over the last 4 months tells us something, right? And I think we can all... I think you also agree that Bitcoin is now in a very, very early stage of the bull market, and if you were going to accumulate Bitcoin for the long term, you don't need to look at the 1-hour chart, you need to look at the daily and weekly charts.
And you can see that if you zoom out, we still have a lot of upside potential ahead, right? Right now we're here, more or less. Very good, and look at that. TRUE ? And now we are here. I mean, you can see the potential for where we could be headed, right? Unlike Vivek's bullish effort based on Bitcoin news, Peter Schiff is a long-term Bitcoin bear, okay?
And he just published on October 24 that Bitcoin is finally falling. It's hard to believe it's lasted this long, isn't it? Do you really think it's that hard to believe? One of the best-performing assets in the world? After dropping below $80,000, the next likely stop is $75,000. If that level isn't maintained today, it's going to be a very long weekend for Bitcoiners, especially for ETF investors who can't sell until Monday .
On Saturday, sorry, on Friday, $ 137 million, $38 million worth of bitcoins were withdrawn from ETFs, I think in anticipation of the weekend, right? They believe Bitcoin will plummet over the weekend, preparing for the upcoming FOMC meeting, which I think will be another piece of bad news, right? And what are your thoughts on today's ETF sales or purchases?
I think they're going to be mostly outings, right? I think it's going to be another red day. Because, you know, when people see Bitcoin drop like that to $79,000, they're going to panic. And I think most people are going to sell, reacting to that news, preparing for that news and for the FOMC news, and just withdrawing money, right?
And I do n't think it's a big problem. It comes and goes . But I think it amplifies the fall. So if we see a massive red day for ETF outflows, it's going to be negative for Bitcoin, right? But anyway, we move on. We've withdrawn $600 million so far, and well, I guess it's still going well. It's still around $80,000, it 's not a big deal.
But if it's another 4.5 billion, I don't know, it will be terrible. Bitcoin will likely react to that news and drop to 77 or 78, but we'll see , okay? Speaking of the altcoin market and the tokens you hold, I recently discovered Quant Network and honestly, I think I've fallen in love with this particular token.
I've been looking for news about Quant and all the updates on the Quant Network lately. Obviously, nothing has appeared, because Quant is quite tech-oriented, creates technology, and doesn't publish much news. They had that clearinghouse news , which was incredible, big, huge for Quant Network. Yes, right now Quant is trading at around $210.
I'm waiting again for Quant to drop to around $130 to start applying a strong DCA to Quant. TRUE ? Because, whatever people say about Quant Network's low value , this is a crypto token. It's going to be extremely volatile. But, curiously, it has gone in the opposite direction to Bitcoin. It is irrelevant to Bitcoin at this time.
Bitcoin is going down, but it has been rising for 2 days now and it doesn't look like this is going to stop anytime soon. OK? I've looked into it and there's no major news, so this is purely technical; people are buying. It's possible that Bitcoin will start to drop in the next 1 or 2 days when we have that FOMC meeting and Bitcoin drops to 79.
I think it will go down. By the way, guys , we have our own private cryptocurrency trading groups where we give out profitable trading signals every day. As you can see, we have been calling short positions across the market since October 24th. So, over the weekend, starting on Saturday, in fact. And as you can see, the market is bleeding right now.
And Solana, every trade we make, AVAX, Ethereum, ADA, Litecoin, is hitting our profit-taking targets like crazy. 9 R, 6 R, as you can see. Look at that, right? Beautiful graphics here. So, if you have n't joined the group yet, be sure to check the link in the description and comments, okay? Go to the free group to see how we advertise deals and how we treat you.
If you like it, you can go to the private group, okay? All the links are in the description. And that's all for today's video. Thank you all so much for watching. Be sure to comment below what you think about Bitcoin's price movement in the next 24 hours. Are they on QNT or not? Be sure to like and subscribe to Crypto Ninjas for more daily content, and we'll see you next time. Daily departure. Bye bye .
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