저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI는 10~12년짜리 4차 산업혁명의 3년차 국면이며 다년간 강세장이 이어진다고 주장. S&P500은 저점 대비 115%, 나스닥100은 180% 상승했고 대형 기술주 PER은 약 23배로 닷컴버블(30배)보다 낮다고 설명. 엔비디아 실적 과소평가(최대 20%), MSFT Azure 43% 성장, 팔란티어 매출 상향, 크라우드스트라이크 보안 수요, 애플 소비자 AI 과금 수혜를 근거로 5개 종목을 추천.
다듬은 글
If you suddenly decide to build it in 5 years, then by that time you will already be in the arena. And I think that's how these tech companies understand what they're doing. This is a golden age, we are only in the third inning of the artificial intelligence revolution. I tell them that we are in the third year of a 10-12 year rollout of a true fourth industrial revolution.
There will be tense moments, but Sasabuchi and cyclical funding will put an asterisk in the context of the Open AI report. But the reality is that we are in for a multi-year bull market in technology. And the bears predicted 10 of the last two downturns. And the "bears" don't see AI in their spreadsheets when they're in hibernation mode.
And this is the time to own technological winners. And when such opportunities arise for winners, you own them. And that remains how we navigate these markets. If you listened to the Wall Street bears after the ChatGPT moment in late 2022, you didn't just miss the rally. You missed the most aggressive wealth creation event in modern financial history.
While pessimists spent four years screaming about inflated valuations and dot-com-level bubbles, the market completely embarrassed them. Since bottoming out in late 2022, the S&P 500 has risen more than 115%, surpassing 7,800. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has soared an incredible 180%, surpassing 30,000.
This is not a bursting speculative bubble. This is a massive fundamentally supported expansion that has added over $20 trillion in market capitalization. Basic numbers break down every argument of the " bears". During the dot-com crash of 1999, technology stocks traded at absurd 30x earnings on unprofitable PowerPoint promises.
Today, large tech companies trade at around 23 times earnings, backed by $4-5 trillion in real corporate capital investment in AI by 2027. With every dollar spent on AI hardware generating a multiplier effect of $5-6 in software and cybersecurity, the current chip shortage represents an unprecedented 13-to- one supply-demand imbalance.
Listening to the “bears” calling for a crash in the third year of the 10-12 year Fourth Industrial Revolution is not risk management. This is suicide for the portfolio. So, where is the smartest institutional money heading now? Dan Ives narrowed his research to five key drivers that remain very cheap relative to their multi-year earnings trajectory .
We're talking about a semiconductor giant facing a massive 20% profit understatement, an enterprise cloud anchor generating record cash flows, a software titan moving toward a $1 trillion market cap, a cybersecurity fortress protecting the AI ecosystem, and a top tax collector in consumer AI worth $75 a share.
Let's break down the data , targets, and main thesis of these five investment ideas we're confident in. First on the list is Nvidia Corporation, ticker NVDA. The undisputed driving force at the center of this technological transformation. Wall Street's consensus forecast continues to significantly underestimate Nvidia's actual earnings potential—by up to 20%, ignoring the coming wave of physical AI and multi-stage supply chains.
Rather than simply selling GPUs, Nvidia has transformed itself into a major AI infrastructure catalyst, using its vast cash reserves to fund data center construction, strategic ecosystem investments, and support core AI development. From an operational perspective, the fundamentals are extraordinary.
Supply chain metrics remain extremely tight: key memory suppliers have already sold out years of high-speed memory inventory , and large cloud providers continue to triple GPU adoption. Management expects chip sales to double next year, bolstered by a historic expansion of its share buyback program by $150 billion, bringing total buybacks to $235 billion by fiscal 2028.
The consensus earnings forecast for fiscal 2028 has risen sharply to nearly $15.91 per share, but the stock is trading at the lowest forward valuation multiples in a decade relative to its growth trajectory. With gross margins holding steady at 73 % and revenue growing rapidly, NVIDIA remains a major driver of global technology expansion.
Moving on to the second choice, Microsoft Corporation, ticker MSFT, stands out as a fundamental hyperscaler that directly converts AI infrastructure into huge recurring revenue. The latest financial results completely exceeded expectations, delivering quarterly revenue of $90 billion, representing 17% year-over-year growth, supported by record enterprise cloud performance.
Azure stands out as the star of the show, accelerating to 43% annual growth and officially surpassing $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time in history. Importantly, corporate demand continues to outpace available cloud capacity, meaning that every new data center deployment is immediately absorbed and monetized.
Microsoft's commercial obligations under remaining contracts soared 84% year-over-year to $678 billion, highlighting a huge backlog of guaranteed future cash flows. Additionally, enterprise licensing growth remains robust: Microsoft 365 Co-pilot has surpassed 30 million paid users, while new autonomous agent platforms are enabling the company to dominate the next wave of productivity improvements .
Trading at around 26 forward earnings on the back of projected double-digit revenue acceleration through fiscal 2028 , Microsoft maintains unmatched balance sheet strength and remains poised for growth into the $600 to $700 range. Moving on to specialized enterprise software, our third stock is Palantir Technologies Inc., ticker PLTR.
Recognized as the leading software platform driving real AI integration at the enterprise level. While legacy software vendors struggle, Palantir continues its unprecedented growth cycle, aggressively raising annual revenue forecasts by 82% year-over-year to more than $8.15 billion thanks to the stunning rollout of its artificial intelligence platform.
Palantir's key competitive advantage lies in creating economic value , not simply using basic models. By embedding software directly into corporate workflows while maintaining customer data sovereignty, corporate customer retention rates have reached an impressive 157%, supported by rapid growth in eight-figure commercial contracts.
Commercial revenues in the US grew 149% year-on-year, while the government segment maintained steady, highly profitable expansion. Financially, Palantir operates at the highest level of enterprise software, demonstrating a “ rule of 40” of 155 % and generating a free cash flow margin of over 60% with no debt.
As corporate adoption moves from initial experiments to full-scale operational reliance, Palantir's expanding deal portfolio and multi-billion dollar backlog make the company a prime contender to join the elite $1 trillion market cap club within the next two to three years. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., ticker CRWD, ranks fourth.
The company positions itself as an indispensable fortress protecting the digital attack surface that is expanding in the age of artificial intelligence. The proliferation of autonomous AI agents and open-source models does not reduce the demand for cybersecurity, but rather significantly increases the need for real-time endpoint protection, identity control, and third-party security verification.
CrowdStrike's recent operating results underscore its market dominance: the company delivered its strongest quarter in its history with a record $333 million in net new annual revenue, pushing total ARR to over $5.84 billion. The main catalyst for growth remains the Falcon Flex subscription model, which crossed the $2.29 billion ARR mark as enterprise customers accelerate module adoption and platform consolidation.
Through strategic product innovations like Falcon Guardian and new specialized security frameworks integrated with leading hyperscalers, CrowdStrike protects both enterprise AI deployments and growing cloud workloads. As management raised its forecast for net new annual revenue and targeted growth of over 20% by fiscal 2028, CrowdStrike is accumulating over $5.0 billion in cash reserves, benefiting primarily from increased global cybersecurity spending.
Closing out our list in fifth place is Apple Inc., ticker AAPL. The main " guardian" and the main "toll collector" on the highway of consumer artificial intelligence. With an active ecosystem of over 2.5 billion iOS devices worldwide, Apple is in an undisputed position where approximately 20% of the world's population is projected to have access to consumer AI features directly through a hardware interface, generating approximately $75 in incremental value per share.
Apple's unmatched pricing power and monetization strategy turn macroeconomic headwinds into clear financial catalysts. By implementing strategic price adjustments on flagship devices like the iPhone Pro line and setting tiered access limits for AI server requests, Apple is effectively increasing gross margins on hardware while simultaneously turning Siri AI usage into highly profitable services revenue through upgraded iCloud+ subscriptions.
At the same time, flexible financial initiatives and annual upgrade programs lower the barriers to entry for consumers in the high-end device market, including the new foldable iPhone duo, encouraging stable device replacement cycles. With over $30.7 billion in quarterly services revenue and massive operating cash flow generation, Apple's control over the consumer digital interface cements its status as a key beneficiary of the ongoing AI revolution.
These five tech giants are the multi-trillion dollar foundation of this 10-12 year Fourth Industrial Revolution. While skeptics and pessimists debate outdated metrics, institutional capital is preparing for a massive acceleration in future earnings. Leave a comment below with your top AI bet, hit the like button, and subscribe for more in-depth institutional insights.
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