저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인이 금 대비 반등 조짐이며 온체인 지표가 개선 중이라고 주장. 스테이블코인과 비트코인이 에이전틱 결제 확산의 최대 수혜자가 될 것으로 봄. 일본의 엔화 방어를 위한 미 국채 매도로 장기금리 압력이 있으나 5%까지 오르진 않을 것으로 봄. M2 증가율 5.6%지만 노동참가율 하락에 따른 통화 유통속도 둔화로 인플레이션은 제한적이며, 향후 1년 내 디플레이션 우려가 나타날 수 있다고 전망. 신용·정크본드·크립토 측면 문제는 없다고 보고 기술혁신 주식과 암호화폐에 기회가 많다고 강조.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin relative to gold finding its legs. Um, and I do think uh David Puel's onchain indicators are looking more positive. We should have paid more attention to them when they turned negative uh during the flash crash. Um, we didn't we didn't think that was going to propagate the way it did. I take full responsibility for that.
Uh in fact I also uh caused a problem by saying stable coins were taking were usurping one of the roles bitcoin was going to play. And what's so interesting about this period in time, just listen to Cloudflare's uh earnings call last night, he didn't use the word stable coins, but he did use uh Agentic Commerce, a Gentic Payments uh throughout.
And we think stable coins, which will be dollar positive uh and Bitcoin are going to be the two biggest beneficiaries of that movement. Kathy Wood argues that investors may be approaching one of the most consequential stages of the technology revolution. Her outlook is not simply a prediction about Bitcoin prices or interest rates.
It is a broader thesis about the interaction between money, technology, artificial intelligence, digital assets, and economic productivity. One of the most significant developments is Japan's growing determination to support the yen. Japan has historically been one of the largest foreign holders of United States Treasury securities.
According to Woods interpretation, Japanese authorities have now been selling Treasury securities as part of their efforts to stabilize their currency. The scale is important because Japan has already reduced its Treasury holdings by roughly 5% year-to date. First, I'd like to talk about the yen. Something very important happened this week uh with the yen.
It is clear now that the Japanese government has said we are going to support the yen by selling treasury securities and year to date they have sold 5% almost 5% of their treasury securities. Um this week uh Treasury Secretary Bessant and it was famous it's on on X you'll see his to-do list one is to intervene on behalf of the yen.
But what we didn't know until yesterday is that or maybe even today is that the uh intervention was selling the euros that we have and buying yen not selling dollars. Uh so that that tells us a couple of things. There is some agreement between uh Japan and uh and the Treasury perhaps not to sell any more treasuries.
That has put pressure on our treasury yields. Uh and it also suggests that uh that Japan is getting concerned about its inflation rate. remember not too long ago they were worried they'd never get out of deflation. Well, now they're worried about inflation. Uh, and they do not want the yen to go down anymore.
So, here you can see a chart of uh the major sellers of treasuries, but Japan is at the is near uh the top of the list there selling 5%. You've got China, you've got Canada uh and uh Saudi Arabia. I found that one interesting because uh Saudi Arabia really needs $85 uh a barrel for oil in order to fund its budget without resorting to cut backs elsewhere.
So we're now seeing it in the form of Treasury uh Treasury sales. Uh so um there has been a lot of pressure on long-term yields and yet we haven't been able to get them to 5%. Bitcoin relative to gold finding its legs. Um and [clears throat] I do think uh David Puel's onchain indicators are looking more positive.
We should have paid more attention to them when they turned negative uh during the flash crash. um we didn't we didn't think that was going to propagate the way it did. I take full responsibility for that. Uh in fact, I also uh caused a problem by saying stable coins were taking were usurping one of the roles bitcoin was going to play and what's so interesting about this period in time.
Just listen to cloud flare's uh earnings call last night. He didn't use the word stable coins but he did use uh aentic commerce aentic payments uh throughout and we think stable coins which will be dollar positive uh and bitcoin are going to be the two biggest beneficiaries of that movement. And the other thing to listen to is it just came out this week was the latest Bitcoin brainstorm that we did with uh Bitcoin Park and Rod Rudy.
Um that was all about the convergence between Bitcoin and AI. I always learned so much when we do those uh Bitcoin brainstorms. Uh here also uh for those wondering about Michael Sailor uh you can see that stretch uh is recovering uh it had a neardeath experience because because and it wasn't near-death by any stretch of the imagination but hedge funds were pushing pushing pushing this is what they do when they see a weak link and uh Michael Sailor was the weak link.
um this notion that Bitcoin would continue to unwind and he would be he would be forced to sell Bitcoin uh to pay dividends 10 to 11%. Uh and uh so he's been testing the market by selling some Bitcoin just to give those hedge funds a sense of hey stop it it's not going to happen and I'm selling Bitcoin and what are you going to do about it now?
So, we shall see. The discussion then moves toward monetary policy. Wood points to year-over-year M2 growth of approximately 5.6%. At first glance, that number could appear concerning. More money circulating through an economy can potentially create inflationary pressure. But Wood argues that the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation is not mechanical.
One of the critical variables is the velocity of money. Velocity measures how quickly money moves through the economy. So, uh, on this one, let's go into monetary policy a bit more. Uh, here, as opposed to the 4-year annualized rate of change in M2, this is the year-over-year uh, increase in M2, and it's about 5.6.
And so again, just to serve as a guide, you can see in the context of history, this is not at an extreme. Um, and it's probably at the midpoint of the range here. Now, will it go higher? It might go higher. Uh, but will that cause inflation, CPI based inflation to continue moving up? We do not think so.
And uh this will take us back into while while we're talking about inflation. Uh just in the last month there have been a number of surprises on the low side of expectations for inflation. CPI headline this would have been for June we'll get the July one uh next week minus0.4 core was zero. This is monthtomonth uh PPI monthto-month minus0.3 uh PCE so personal consumption uh deflator uh that was minus0.1 for June and the core was only 0.1.
Uh now on a year-over-year basis uh the consumer indices are still for the most part in the threes. Uh the core headline uh and headline and core for PCE headline for CPI core for CPI is 2.6% year-over-year. So we are still wrestling in that 2 to 3% range for that core with the recent increase in oil prices.
Uh but why don't we think the CPI here is going to continue following money uh growth on a year-over-year basis up? First, I've just given you some statistics suggesting we're beginning to see surprises on the low side of expectations. Second has to do with the labor force participation rate um that I just uh discussed with you.
Uh as you can see it is falling pretty rapidly. Uh and I gave you the reasons the the two ends of the spectrum. Um and this brings us back to uh you know I've marveled uh at the the correlation you can't say causation of course but correlation between the labor force participation rate and the velocity of me m2 the rate at which M2 turns over.
When people are concerned about their future, they tend uh to pull back a bit on on spending and maybe save a little bit. Now, they've not been able to save much, and I'll get into that in a moment. Uh but I do think this drop in the labor participation rate, the boomers now they're depending just on their retirement income.
So they're they're probably a little more conservative in their spending. And on the other side, the young people, 16 to 24 year olds, they're probably a little concerned as well. And maybe everyone's concerned, but we did say that the participation rate of the prime age did go up. So that's a little bit of good news on there.
They are the biggest income earners. So even if velocity just rolls over a little bit, does not resume its downtrend, even though the labor participation rate suggests it will, um that will diffuse the impact of money growth. So 5.6% velocity slows down by 1%. uh and so flat lines essentially that will take one percentage point uh uh out of the power of uh uh of the 5.6% um monetary growth and here more broadly uh we don't see any problems in the banking system.
Uh so no private credit problems, certainly no crypto problems. Uh they're they're they're not touching crypto very much yet. And same with junk bonds relative to 10-year Treasury yields. No problems. Uh so no problems. Uh and so I will leave you now. Uh lots of opportunities. Uh no problems, lots of opportunities.
We are so excited about um what's going to unfold in both the equity markets and the crypto markets uh during during the next few years. Uh this technology revolution is real. I think the inflation scare that has that had unnerved the markets is going to disappear. And believe me, consider the source.
I know I've been saying this for a number of years. uh we think we're going to see deflation um before we see any any kind of super inflation to concern the markets. Uh and we think that will occur in the next year or so and it's going to be fantastic for investors and and companies that are on the right side of change and really are harnessing all of these technology tools and it will be very difficult for those who who do not do so.
Uh so it'll seem at times quite confusing because some of the most triedand-true companies are not going to get this right. Uh and it is up to those of us in the equity markets especially active equity management with the help of prediction markets which I think is going to bring more active equity management back.
It is up to uh those of us who are watching this uh technology revolution unfold from our vantage point uh to pick the right stocks. And no, we're not always going to get it right. You know, in our business, the saying is if you're right 60% of the time, uh you're going to have a golden record. And now that we've gotten through a very difficult time for innovation with him, interest rate scares, inflation scares, wars, and so forth, and we've climbed the wall of worry, I think the wall of worry is going to be a lot more fun for those of us who are dedicated uh to uh helping our clients discover and invest in the companies who are going to lead us during this revolution.
Kathy Wood's argument ultimately comes down to one central idea. The market may be underestimating the scale of the technological transformation taking place beneath the surface. Japan is confronting inflation rather than deflation. Treasury markets are absorbing major changes in international capital.
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