저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
정부 개입·부채 누적으로 금·비트코인·부동산 규제 가능성, 분산투자 강조. AI를 철도 붐 같은 거대 거품으로 보고 붕괴 시 경기침체 우려. 금·은 가치가 주식 대비 크게 저평가되어 있다고 주장하며 금 6000달러, 은 100달러 목표 언급. 캐나다 소형 금광주(Ontario Timmins) 홍보 및 소형 광산주 고수익 기대. 금 대비 다우지수 급락(약 75~80%) 예상.
다듬은 글
Hello, welcome to the Thousand Alarm Clock Report on the topic of Marc Faber: Is government intervention in gold, Bitcoin, or real estate possible? Diversification across different asset classes and countries is becoming more important. Disclaimer. Yes, here's an original interview with Marc Faber, which I will link as always.
Government intervention distorts markets. According to Marc Faber, subsidies, bailout programs and tariffs change prices and capital allocation. He increasingly views tariffs as inflationary because they raise domestic prices . Global debt is the central problem. Credit and government debt have risen sharply.
Instead of focusing solely on GDP , he believes one should ask whether the actual standard of living of the population has improved. He considers official inflation figures problematic. The consumer price index depends heavily on how individual expenditures are weighted. Faber claims that governments significantly underestimate the rise in the cost of living .
Housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable. He interprets high property prices with low transaction volume as a sign of a lack of affordability. He also argues that the younger generation is sometimes in a worse economic position than their parents. In his view, large countries are hindering growth.
Faber is critical of the high government spending levels in many Western countries . The combination of high debt and increased interest rates is making the situation increasingly problematic. He considers AI to be a huge speculative bubble. He compares the current AI investment in terms of scale to the railway boom of the 19th century.
In his estimation, a bursting of this bubble could severely impact investments and financial markets and trigger a serious economic crisis. He also sees real estate as a risk, since a large part of the middle class's wealth is invested in real estate; a simultaneous decline in real estate, stocks, and AI investments could cause a broad economic contraction.
[sighs][gasps] Gold could benefit from printing money. Faber expects governments to initially respond to major crises with additional money creation. In his view, stocks and especially gold could benefit from this. At the same time, he warns against government intervention, including restrictions on gold, Bitcoin, and real estate.
Diversification is its most important consequence. In his view, assets should be spread across different asset classes, such as stocks, real estate, precious metals and other tangible assets. He also considers geographical diversification across different countries and legal systems to be important.
Yes, that makes perfect sense. It 's clear, there are no reforms within these reforms in these states. Instead of creating new economic growth, lower taxes, and anything else, they're just trying to squeeze even more money out of the already struggling middle class or the general population, which is further damaging the economy.
The situation remains difficult, and naturally, gold, real estate, and other assets come into focus for governments, and yes, one simply has to prepare for that, possibly with international diversification. But gold stocks, for example, may not be the primary target; they are targeted later, when the resource-rich states realize what enormous treasures they possess and have to hand them over to the other, let's say, fiat states.
Sure , it's a world full of dangers, but that doesn't change the fact that gold and silver stocks are extremely undervalued relative to gold and silver, and we're basically just waiting for the trigger that will normalize and hopefully overreact. Yes, this is what it looked like for gold and silver stocks in 2022 and 2023: extreme lows; you could pick up these kinds of stocks for pennies.
In these two cases, it then rose 30-fold, then of course corrected sharply at the beginning of the year, and we naturally hope that the correction will end as quickly as possible and that it will then rise again, so that the old highs can be reached quickly. Occasionally, there are also thousandfold increases in this sector.
Great Bear was one such example; its price rose from 5 cents to 30 dollars in 2016. And, uh, yes, not that you can identify something like that in advance, but if there's a really bad atmosphere in this sector , which is truly hated, and that's still the case here in this sector, then it's possible that such projects aren't properly evaluated by many companies, or aren't evaluated at all.
And if you can identify something like that, and then a different situation arises and there is very, very high demand, then such value developments can occur. But it doesn't have to be; for the average individual investor, these types of projects are sufficient . Will the whole thing be tripled, quintupled, or tenfold in order to be successful?
But there are also a thousand alarm clocks like that, right? Yes, an interesting company. We're in a really bad mood right now. We reported on them a few days ago; the outbreak has been confirmed. It has definitely reached its previous high from January. That means it's a significantly better investment than gold and silver themselves.
They're based in Ontario. And yes, the project is located in the productive Timmins Prokopier, the Gold Belt tour in the immediate vicinity of major producers like Pan American Silver and Discovery Silver. Over 65 million ounces of gold have been historically produced here. Great exploration potential.
A small part of the project was drilled here. 10% of several zones are still open and have hardly been tested. Yes, resource estimate approximately 1.5 million 3.63 g per ton. Strategic partnership: a major silver producer holds approximately 19% and supports the project. Yes, this gives them access to existing mills, infrastructure, technical know-how and infrastructure.
Yes, that makes all the investment costs much easier. Yes, it is in an area that still has 90% of its exploration activity to be completed. They already estimate that they will achieve a production of 85,000 ounces, and yes, I think they have further good exploration and growth potential there. Here's the news again, it's from last time.
The company is receiving increased attention in the market due to its recent excellent drilling results. Notable results included 4.07 g per ton of gold at 40 m, including 12 g per ton of gold at 12.35 m. After the breakout and successful pullback, the stock appears technically strong and seems poised for an upward movement, which has since been confirmed.
So definitely check it out and maybe even go on board. As always, this is of course not a purchase recommendation. 1000 Bakers Report. We try to identify such stocks here, present them to you, and classify them according to their potential and risk. We have compiled a list of approximately 150 to 200 stocks.
Those that are compared according to these criteria. If you opt for the report , you will of course also are interested, we can also put together a portfolio proposal. Below you will find some brokers and some gold and silver storage providers you can work with . Gold Avenue is a completely Switzerland-based storage solution.
Yes, it's sellable at any time . It is completely free of charge up to €10,000. The nice thing is, it's a subsidiary of a large Swiss gold company that issues this pump series . Otherwise, it's a very modern application. It can be accessed from anywhere , even on weekends, without incurring significant costs.
Further information can be found in the attachment. The silver bull market of the 1960s and 1970s. Here, the price went from $1 to $50. And that more or less without any real reason, besides of course the fact that the gold standard has been abandoned and so on. Nevertheless, there were sufficient mined ounces at that time, meaning there was no particularly high industrial demand that took anything away.
That's how it is today. Today we have a deficit of 45 million ounces per year, and therefore many chart technicians or analysts believe that silver will rise to a value of $500 to $1000. Yes, in 2030 gold might be worth 10 to 15,000, 20,000, who knows. The gold-silver ratio should fall back to its natural occurrence in the Earth's crust, which is 15.
Therefore, silver would perform significantly better. Then it's simply important to know that this gold and silver boom, which will probably really reach 10, 20000 or something like that, thus entering an absolute parabolic development in the end, will be so strong that all other asset classes will lose enormously as a result, so to speak.
That means that now you can get 100 ounces of gold for a single-family home, but in 2030 you might only get 10 to 20 ounces, and it's the same with stocks, where we're expecting a collapse of about 80%. In terms of value compared to gold. It doesn't have to be nominal. Let's take another look at these numbers.
The other stock market rallies. So, this is a chart, this is all, uh, the Dow Jones, the stock index, measured with gold . You can see, first of all, in the 19th century, when there was a gold standard , there was a long period of good, healthy economic development without these severe interruptions.
Here, this, this, uh, whatever Faber mentioned, here in 1840. Um, uh, what we experienced, that was this railway mania, which is compared to today's AI mania. That was a severe economic, uh, downturn, so to speak. And, um, the whole thing then ends in the global economic crisis. Well, with these completely overhyped stocks, it's obviously a long timeframe, no question about it.
In any case, those were relatively quiet times due to the gold standard. We obviously do n't have that anymore. And now, stock market houses are being built here, measured in gold, but also the most brutal crashes of all kinds, which, um, did n't exist in the past. Here in the 1930s, the implosion, which is all calculated in gold , was stronger than the entire rise, so a completely lost period.
And then there was the post-war boom, when they had won the war, had all the gold in the world, could set the rules, made money, drove up stock prices , uh, then the Vietnam War began, and they started to go into debt. Insiders don't benefit the masses, they have to live with inflation , gold linkage is agreed upon and the entire post-war profit implodes, so to speak, implodes far more deeply than it did in 1932, and those were really hard times.
It's simply unbelievable, it really has been a zero-sum game. And so, the next thing is just around the corner. Of course, this refers to longer periods; for example, 1980 was when gold prices were so high. Of course, stocks were interesting again. And they drove that down from one ounce per dow to 44 ounces per dow.
And now, as you can see for yourselves, if that's even remotely accurate, we've already dealt with roughly a third of the value implosion compared to gold. And, uh, it was basically just consumed by this financial crisis, which they kept patching up, then drove up again with the AI boom, and so on.
Um, and that seems to be losing momentum now, and we need to prepare for this implosion . And that means, uh, you probably get two Dows for one ounce . That is of course the ideal time to invest one's gold in Dow Jones stocks or in standard stocks in general. That is of course an economic one; that is the economic zero point when we get there.
This is a difficult situation. We are in a deeper recession than in the Great Depression, deeper than in 1928. And, uh, in that sense, we are actually falling back to the year 1850, if you can even compare it like that . Um, yeah, uh, that means we're facing stagflation. That means the Dow will fall, uh, at least in terms of value above gold, but here, as an example, uh, the value is given as 30,000; we are now at 60,000.
Gold then rises to 13,600 and silver to 350. That should get you out of this situation quite well. Uh, and things are getting really difficult with wages . In the year 2000, someone earning, for example, 3500 euros, could earn a whopping ten ounces per month. Today it is more or less one ounce. And yes, if you calculate that further, you'll need to do it again .
An 80 or 75 percent crash will always result in a quarter ounce, and Rick Rule also says that the Dow Jones will be affected in the coming years. 75 percent of his, so sorry. The dollar loses 75 percent of its purchasing power . So, in other words, calculated in dollars, according to Rick Rule, gold will increase fourfold.
That's quite a number. That's somewhere. Yes. Something between 15 and 20,000. Yes, and then there's the seasonality to consider. Gold and silver prices rise seasonally until the end of the year and the beginning of the next year, and should support our gold and silver stock rally. Support. Yes, we certainly hope that at least gold will rise to 6000.
Silver 100, we're aiming for something a bit like Naomi's. Prince, who is supposed to be an insider, but of course nobody has a crystal ball . Thank you liked the content so far , and perhaps also give it a like. Giving that up would give the channel a bit more attention overall. Thank you again very much and see you next time.
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