저자: CathieWood/Ailia · 외국인
요약 보기
스팟 비트코인 ETF 승인이 해킹 사건에도 지연되지 않을 것으로 봄. 21Shares는 21bp 수수료로 접근성 중시, ARK는 장기적으로 기관 수요 유입을 기대. 승인 후 '재료 소멸(sell the news)' 가능성 언급했으나 장기적으로는 공급 희소성 때문에 가격 상승 요인으로 봄. 선물형 ETF 대비 현물 ETF 역할 및 향후 레버리지/XRP/이더리움 ETF 승인 시점에 대해 명확한 답은 피함.
다듬은 글
First of all, what is your reaction to the hack, and in your view, does this delay the decision process around spot Bitcoin ETFs at all?
Well, we were on with you, Katie, last night, both Ailia and I. We saw this come up, and I said, "What's that Bitcoin logo doing in this SEC release, and why is Gary Gensler's face there?" But we thought we had confirmation from an exchange, and it turns out it was a hack. From all that we can see right now, it is not going to delay the arrival of a spot Bitcoin ETF. But you never know. You can never say 100%.
We were on the phone, all three of us, and I have to say, that's a phone call that probably never gets forgotten. I wish for some reason it had been taped, because it'd be great to revisit it.
Ailia, I want to ask you about the fee war that's taking place. Eric mentioned all these fee reductions, and in addition to fee reductions, there are waivers as well. Is it more important to attract inflows early on thanks to those fee waivers, or to have the lowest permanent fee, which right now is Bitwise at 20 basis points?
I think there are a few ways to look at this. From our perspective, we really see this as an access product. This is about welcoming new people into the sector, and we want to make sure the cost isn't prohibitive for people. This is about ensuring that as many people as possible can participate in what, as Kathy puts it, is a massive shift in financial infrastructure. I think that's really exciting, so we're pricing it accordingly. This isn't a product where we're necessarily looking to make all of our margins. This is really about providing access. We priced our product at 21 basis points: 21 million Bitcoin, 21 Shares, 21 basis points. It makes sense for us, and it all works out. I noticed that myself.
Kathy, one of the things we noticed over the past week or two is that ARKW has sort of transitioned out of GBTC. It looks like you put a chunk of money into BITO, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which is very liquid. Is that a placeholder, where you're going to maybe transition or leg into ARKB? I would think that would be important, because then you get out to a fast start in the derby.
We can't say what we're going to do, especially since the spot Bitcoin ETF has not been approved yet. Your logic would seem sound if everything works out according to plan, but anything could happen between here and there. So watch this space.
Ailia, I want to go to you on the fact that fees are so low. Most people would agree it's surprising to see just how low these fees are. Is there a certain break-even level for you when it comes to assets in the fund, at which point you would start making money on this product?
All of these providers are competing. They're all businesses at the end of the day. We obviously have costs associated with this, and we've talked about this in the past: costs associated with crypto products are quite a bit higher than for other, more traditional ETFs, simply because you have more service providers in the mix. So scale is going to play a role. One thing that is particularly interesting from our perspective is that we're bringing quite a bit of scale here already. As a firm, we manage close to 2.5 billion dollars in crypto assets on a global basis, and have been doing so for a number of years. The company actually celebrated its five-year anniversary in November. We're trying to bring that scale, operational stability, and robustness to these products. Over time, that skill does play a role. This product forms a portion of a broader suite of products for us, including a number of actively managed products, which for us are a little different and support our efforts in this sector more broadly. So we look at this as a single component of a broader business activity.
All right, thank you so much. May I add something? There's something very important about what Ailia just said. 21 Shares, our partner, has been up and running for five years with 40 funds before we partnered with them, and they have been through extremely volatile markets, through forks, and so on. So it's really important to make that observation.
Thank you for explaining that and giving that context. Kathy, I want to follow up by getting a sense from you: what do you anticipate the breakdown of initial inflows into ARKB will be when it is approved? What share will be retail investors versus institutional, and how might that look in six months?
It's interesting. We're going after all of these categories. Historically, our bread and butter has been retail, whereas 21 Shares has been much more institutional. We're even speaking with state pension funds, as well as some treasurers, so the interest is far and wide. We're satisfying a lot of curiosity out there right now with meetings, so we're looking forward to seeing how this breaks down into flows.
One thing, though: when you're dealing with institutions, it's not going to be overnight. There are so many boxes to check and so much due diligence. If the approval takes place, that is, for many of them, the starting point for due diligence. So I wouldn't expect overnight success. From Eric's lips to God's ears in terms of the billion-dollar figure, that would be amazing.
I want your take, Kathy, on Bitcoin price action. When BITO launched, that's when Bitcoin prices soared to their record high, and we haven't gotten back to those levels yet. Once a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, do you expect this to be a "sell the news" scenario for Bitcoin prices?
There's been a lot of anticipation, and we've had a big move. A lot of people are saying this is going to be a "sell the news" event. Maybe it is. But so many people are now saying it that I'm beginning to wonder if they really believe it. They're probably selling ahead of time. We think the longer term, which is our focus, is what matters. With institutions getting the green light now, with SEC approval assuming that's what we've got here, we think even going to 0.1% or 0.5% of a portfolio for institutions is going to be a price-moving event. We're already at 19.5 million Bitcoin outstanding, with 15 million in long-term holders, strong hands, who haven't moved their Bitcoin in more than half a year. The limit is 21 million, so this is true scarcity.
Kathy, I want to ask about the Bitcoin crypto community. On a different interview you said this is a way to get exposure to Bitcoin. What I see among the hardcore crypto types is that they say this is paper Bitcoin. You're supposed to store it yourself. The whole point is a currency outside the system. It creates a wedge between the purpose of Bitcoin and traditional finance just looking to make a buck off it. The idea is that the Bitcoin isn't really there, because gold had to deal with the same thing: people didn't trust that they actually held the gold bars, so the State Street people had to go take a picture with the vault and the gold bars. What do you think of that reaction from the crypto crowd?
I can understand it from one angle, but let me address it first. The Bitcoin is going to be backed one-for-one in cold storage. In our case, we have listed our service provider as Coinbase. I want to make sure everyone understands that. I think what you're hearing from the Bitcoin community, the ones who would be called Bitcoin maximalists, is a fear of centralization. The whole idea behind Bitcoin is a decentralized, transparent network, and so there's this fear of centralization. We believe this is a stepping stone in terms of access for many individuals. It's just an easier way to access it. Over time, as this movement matures, they may get their own wallets, and it's highly likely they will. For institutions right now, they are not going to custody it themselves and go through all the steps we've gone through. They need to get used to what this is first. This is a new technology and a new asset class, and there's so much to learn. So this is a stepping stone, and as the movement matures, we will encourage more and more decentralization. We think that's very important.
I want to circle back to the concept of futures ETFs, because to Eric's point, some people have said these are paper Bitcoin products. Ailia, usually you see that criticism leveled against futures-backed ETFs. With spot Bitcoin ETFs launching, what does that mean for futures-based products? Who would necessarily be interested in futures products, and who would prefer the spot product?
You see this in commodities, where there are both physically backed products and futures products. Both have advantages. We think physical is a little easier to understand and more appropriate for a larger number of people. It's typically simpler to add to a portfolio, so it has a wider audience. That said, futures products can serve a really important tactical role. There are benefits around liquidity, and certain phases of market cycles where they may be beneficial, or beneficial in combination. One thing we've done as a firm is ensure that we're welcoming people into the space. Kathy alluded to this: this is a critical stepping stone to bringing more people into the space. If you believe that Bitcoin is going to change the way we do finance globally, you need a couple billion people using it, and this is a way to do that. There will be a number of different ways to access it. Futures products are part of that, and we also have a wider suite of actively managed products for people who want to take more advantage of our expertise in markets and active management. At the end of the day, this is not a one-size-fits-all thing. This is a new asset class, and we're going to have as many ways to access it as we do for essentially every other asset class on the market.
I have to follow up on that, Kathy. How long before we see leveraged Bitcoin ETFs, short Bitcoin ETFs approved, or an XRP ETF, or an Ether ETF at this point?
That really depends on the SEC. I think the stepping stone to those is how this rollout goes, and we think it will go very well. I think the SEC, again, we know the research people at the SEC, and they know what they're doing. So I can't give you timing here. This one has taken so long. But maybe the learnings from this, and the fears or concerns about risk, will be allayed by this rollout, and those others will come along more quickly.
So in other words, Kathy, before 2034?
Yes.
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