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영상 결론: 금을 1,700달러 목표로 실물 매수 중이며 12~18개월 보유를 염두에 둔 단기 트레이딩 관점이라는 주장. [핵심 주장] 소규모 가족 펀드가 금을 실물로 매수했으며 이는 장기 투자가 아니라 약 12개월 보유 가능한 트레이드라고 설명함. 레버리지는 쓰지 않음. [가격 목표] 금이 1,260달러 아래로 떨어지지 않으면 향후 12~18개월 내 1,450~1,700달러 구간 상승 가능성이 크다고 봄. 애널리스트 집단 전망치는 최대 1,850달러, 하방 위험은 1,135달러. [매매 기준] 1,306달러 위 돌파 또는 1,260달러 아래 이탈 시 방향이 확인되며, 1,650달러에서 매도할 용의가 있음. 1,200달러 하회 시 월봉 기준 실물 매수 청산 또는 헤지. [근거 지표] 변동성 시스템(VBS)으로 방향 확인. 과거 25년 사용 이력 언급. 12개월 이동평균 상회 시 월평균 수익률 1.47%, 하회 시 -0.15%라는 백테스트 제시. 장기 차트는 방향 참고용으로만 사용. [리스크] 백테스트에서 2/3 기간은 손실이었으나 손실폭은 대부분 10% 이내. 금 가격은 수급·원가보다 심리에 좌우되어 밸류에이션 도구가 약하다고 인정. [기타] 실물 금 블록체인 유통 확대로 유동성이 증가할 것이라 전망. 레이 달리오, 제프 쿤스 등 금 강세 발언에 대해서는 자신들과 무관하다고 선을 그음. [출연자 전망] 금 가격 상승 쪽에 우호적이나 확정적 예측은 아니며 가격 레벨 돌파 여부에 따라 대응하겠다는 조건부 입장.
다듬은 글
well gold with a $1700 target skg update the s'posed was picked up by Zero Hedge and gold seek here is the CH version which is always good for race a comments originally on market slant dot-com for what it is worth we are buying gold in our small family fund this is a trade not an investment potentially a much longer-term trade for us that normal possibly a 12 month hold as opposed to our three-day positions we are buying physical in quantities that will not need to be sold if we are wrong but no leverage we will also be swing trading gold with an upward bias as our indicators dictate below 1200 $60.00 or above 1300 $6 target picking is risky and an asset whose value is largely based on sentiment and prone to being job owned into its proper place but we've believed for various reasons that if gold does not pierce $1,260 spot its chances of rallied hopping between $1,450 and $1700 are strong over the next 12 to 18 months the y target range reflects the emotional factor in gold's behavior far outweighing supply production costs and its lack of fundamentals to measure using tools like EBITDA pay and cash flows and our own analysis has corroborated from several different disciplines who we did not seek out to rationalize our own bias those analysts we respect have a collective range as high as $1,850 with downside risk to $1,135 we'd be happy to sell at $1,650 if we are right for us it's just a trade but it's a very good and very rare risk / reward trade it has set up right now further it will either be violently and decisively confirmed or negated above 1306 dollar or below $1,260 not in that order and holding an asset for 18 months is not an investment by our standards please get off our lawn if you think it is trading gold long term is not investing buy and hold versus using a go to cash filter is key in treating gold as a trading vehicle and not an investment it stores wealth if isn't he a growth or income vehicle why are we sharing this that same question should be asked of Ray Dalio jeff koons Locke and others who announced they are bullish on gold after they have bought our own position is not relevant to the market overall and we do not need to market our tiny positions to create an exit strategy a lodge or Soros the premise for the trade happens so rarely it's worth writing about if for no other reason has an exercise in outsourcing our self-discipline on the trade here is how we came to be this way step one volatility is coiling when trading short term periods intraday and enthrall week we use a volatility system for alerts to incipient movement we risk one to make two and move on when wrong it works about 50% of the time it is net profitable and best of all positions that are in limbo are closed expeditiously this is after all a volatility system no Vol no position it's been cited here many times in the past when it is right it is very right when it is wrong you around past posts and a 25 year track record of use bear this out from our active days the bottom of this post goes into more detail on its use what we never do at HEC obey or its predecessor fund CI s energy was used on long term charts we certainly looked at them but only for bias and shorter term trades last month we took a serious look at our VBS algorithm on a monthly chart here is what we found updated from gold macro analysis a November to remember gold has a tremendous risk reward setting up above thirteen hundred six dollars or below twelve hundred sixty dollars which way from there is not known but can be handicapped once either number is breached for an explanation of the BSC bottom appendix step two how equity funds play gold portfolio managers and large equity funds who have contributed here anonymously use systems that advise them when being in cash as opposed to long stocks is prudent what is also known as that funds like these punt gold positions with their discretionary in-house money for fun they use similar systems for entry and exit and never risk much in their positions gold is a hobby to these guys as a result they like to buy and walk away with long-term trade orientations and firm stuffs this means using long term moving averages to avoid noise we know this is true and here's an example of how that type of positions is implemented in a recent interview uh vocal critic of the gold industry explained why he was buying gold go is poised to close above its 12-month moving average for the second straight month going back to 1970 the average monthly return for gold following a close above the 12-month moving averages one point four seven percent the average monthly return following a close below the 12-month moving averages - 0.15 percent if you used the simplest of Trent following methods investing in gold when it was above its 12 month moving average and going to cash when it is below the results would have been far better than just buying and holding gold he continues the chart below sheõs when you would have been invested in gold and when you would have been out granted prior to GLD this could only have been done with futures contracts or gold bullion with the former adding a degree of leverage that I would not have been comfortable with and the latter adding a degree of paranoia that also would have made me uncomfortable full post vocal critic explains why he is buying gold about physical versus ETF while we agree with the rationale behind GLD vs.
futures if you are trading and not investing we feel for multiple reasons the physical gold market is going to open up and become a serious competitor to ETF allocations within 12 months specifically blockchain products are coming and if properly implemented as a pipeline owning physical gold not held in trust by a GLD custodian will be as easy as clicking a mouse you will buy and sell physical gold that will be yours and verified via the blockchain system so for us physical gold now has the benefit of increased liquidity on the horizon which means increased transactions and exposure which ultimately decentralization of the gold market from a few large firms to grassroots stackers owners and value preservers we view emerging technologies as putting physical assets in a position to have their true value unlocked where the vat be the tea farmer in India who can't currently get alone on his land due to government rules to silver whose value was somewhat disconnected from its price the effect will not be unlike when a private company goes public accessibility and liquidity creates safety and increases demand owning physical metals is like owning a beneficiary of Technology down the road monthly chart through July 2017 using the 12-month ma described above step 3 optimizing the simple 12-month module by optimizing the mall with one factor we back tested greater successes when in trades conversely we were also in less traits on balance it was a wash but right now the employed filters says the 12-month MA has bigger upside than the average if profitable at all a rare chance to buy close to the level the fund punters did with this statistical chance of greater profits and the 1.47 percent monthly average generated by the original backtest updated and optimized by the author the chart below shows the hypothetical results from each of the 30 exits following an entry going back to 1970 using these rules would have resulted in lost two-thirds of the time but as you can see the losses have been relatively shallow not exceeding 10 percent while mccain's have been good to extraordinary step for using VBS for confirmation of direction simply put if we get a VBS signal trigger when 1306 dollar trades a decision must be made to add sell or hold based on the data comes with the signal if we get one on a $1,260 print the same must be assessed step 5 actions we are buying gold now based on the fun finder signal with a monthly stop now below the yellow line in that chart above 1300 $6 we will consider adding a shorter term amount in a rally if the monthly VBS is triggered higher $1,260 we will consider either adding physical or selling paper gold for swing trading purposes if the VBS is triggered lower for number 1 we will close or hedge the first physical purchased on a monthly settlement below 1200 $44 the wide berth on monthly exits musician is not relevant to the market overall and we do not need to market our tiny positions to create an exit strategy a lot George Soros the premise for the trade happens so rarely it's worth writing about if for no other reason has an exercise in outsourcing our self-discipline on the trade here is how we came to be this way step 1 volatility is coiling when trading short term periods intraday and enthrall week we use a volatility system for alerts to incipient movement we risk 1 to make 2 and move on when wrong it works about 50 percent of the time it is net profitable and best of all positions that are in limbo are closed expeditiously this is after all a volatility system no Vol no position it's been cited here many times in the past when it is right it is very right when it is wrong you around past posts and a 25 year track record of use bear this out from our active days the bottom of this post goes into more detail on its use what we never Dec obey or its predecessor fund C is energy was used on long term charts we certainly looked at them but only for bias and shorter term trades last month we took a serious look at our VBS algorithm on a monthly chart here is what we found updated from gold macro analysis a November to remember gold has a tremendous risk reward setting up above thirteen hundred six dollars or below twelve hundred sixty dollars which way from there is not known but can be handicapped once either number is breached for an explanation of the BSC bottom appendix step two how equity funds play gold well gold with a $1700 target skg update the s'posed was picked up by Zero Hedge and gold seek here is the CH version which is always good for race a comments originally on market slant dot-com for what it is worth we are buying gold in our small family fund this is a trade not an investment potentially a much longer-term trade for us that normal possibly a 12 month hold as opposed to our three-day positions we are buying physical in quantities that will not need to be sold if we are wrong but no leverage we will also be swing trading gold with an upward bias as our indicators dictate below 1200 $60.00 or above 1300 $6 target picking is risky and an asset whose value is largely based on sentiment and prone to being job owned into its proper place but we believe for various reasons that if gold does not pierce $1,260 spot its chances of rally topping between $1,450 and $1700 are strong over the next 12 to 18 months the y target range reflects the emotional factor in gold's behavior far outweighing Supply production costs and its lack of fundamentals to measure using tools like EBITDA pay and cash flows and our own analysis has corroborated from several different disciplines who we did not seek out to rationalize our own bias those analysts we respect have a collective range as high as $1,850 with downside risk to $1,135 we'd be happy to sell a $1,650 if we are right for us it's just a trade but it's a very good and very rare risk / reward trade it has setup right now further it will either be violently and decisively confirmed or negated above 1306 dollar or below $1,260 not in that order and holding an asset for 18 months is not an investment by our standards please get off our lawn if you think it is trading gold long term is not investing buy and hold versus using a go to cash filter is key in treating gold as a trading vehicle and not an investment it stores wealth it isn't he a growth or income vehicle why are we sharing this that same question should be asked of Ray Dalio jeff koons Locke and others who announced they are bullish on gold after they have bought our own
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