저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
SpaceX 상장 후 주가 급락 상황에서 장기(10년) 관점 매수를 권유. SpaceX는 통신·컴퓨팅·우주 데이터센터·화성 수송 등 다중 사업을 가진 복합기업으로 Tesla식 가치 재평가가 가능하다고 주장. 현재 밸류에이션은 미래 가치 대비 추정치에 불과하며 락업 해제 매도 압력이 있으나 이를 매수 기회로 봄. Starship 상용화가 핵심 촉매. 단, 장기 투자 원칙과 감당 가능한 금액만 투자하라는 경고 포함.
다듬은 글
Is it worth buying SpaceX at this price? And what Tommy thinks about buying now. As you know, SpaceX is now available to the general public for the first time. It is one of the most important companies in the world, and not just because of its founder Elon, but also because of what SpaceX does. I think they solve many problems facing the modern world.
For example, providing broadband connectivity via Starlink. In addition, as is known, there is a huge shortage of computing power and energy. In the future, SpaceX could theoretically solve this by building data centers in space. And, of course, he has a business in the field of AI. And if we eventually start transporting people to Mars, it will solve this problem as well.
So I think there are a lot of reasons why this will be one of the most important companies in the next 20 years. How do you think retail investors should approach analyzing this company? There are so many different business lines out there: from AI and rockets to Twitter, right ? What exactly should you focus on to form your own strategy?
Yes, Geve, there may be a "consortium discount", that is, a discount for the conglomerate. Because, as you know, complex companies with many different divisions often look like a messy business. I think investors should view this as a 10-year long-term bet on all the problems it solves. This is the easiest way to own SpaceX, because you're right: it's not a single-core chip-selling business where you can just buy shares based on expected performance.
I think Tesla shares are a great example of why it's worth thinking of as a large conglomerate, where a significant portion of the value is invested in the future. Anyone who saw Tesla as just an automaker missed the whole point. Many argued that it should trade at a low multiple because it is an auto business, and because of that they lost all the future value of Optimus, the robo-taxis, and the full autopilot system.
Therefore, I think Tesla is a good example of how SpaceX should be perceived. Got it. And Tesla, you know, has come a long way, right? It was completely different from what it is today when it went public. Do you think SpaceX can make the same leap in its vision? Now people perceive it as one thing, but in 5-10 years the company may reach a completely different scale.
You mentioned Mars, uh, data centers in outer space. I think people are starting to think about this, but can it quickly develop into a much clearer understanding of what it really is? Yes, that's a great point. I mean, let's go back in time to July 1, 2016. If someone said, " Okay, here's what you're going to get from SpaceX," and you'd see, you know, a small team.
They had some success with launches. Starlink wasn't even in orbit yet, and I'm not even sure if they had received permission to use the frequencies then. Look what happened in just 120 months. He built things that might have taken a century to build. So with everything he has today, what will he be able to achieve in 10 years?
I think this could be much larger than human imagination. I think today's price targets are an attempt to find balance for a company whose growth is still ahead. Do you understand? In other words, if you look at this as an asset that has 20 years of future value, and you try to discount that to today, then the valuation of 190 is almost a guess.
Therefore, I believe that this is exactly the case when investors should buy. I think there will be a share unblocking soon, which will likely create not only more supply in the market, but also some selling pressure as some owners will want to hedge their positions, but for me this will be a great buying opportunity.
I have an article from Barron's that I want to share with you called "SpaceX Falls Below IPO Price: How It's Recovering." Starship promises to significantly reduce the cost of access to space, while significantly increasing SpaceX's ability to launch cargo into orbit. SpaceX's partially reusable Falcon 9 rocket launches approximately 25,000 kg into space at a cost of about $1,500 per kilogram.
The fully reusable Starship is designed to launch 150,000 kg into space, which is ten times cheaper per kilogram. Lower costs will open up new possibilities, such as orbital data centers with AI, but Starship is not yet operational. SpaceX is still working out the kinks, and the 13th test will help the company perfect the third generation of the rocket.
The stock could close below the IPO price of $135. On June 16, the shares traded at a peak of $265.64. Shortly thereafter, the IPO price closed at 201.80 on June 11. They fell 33% during trading on Tuesday. This is already a bear market zone. Although this term is better applied to indices than to individual stocks.
Investors are not really concerned about the term itself. They just want the stocks to stop falling. The stock has been pressured by several factors, including valuation concerns and concerns that the increased availability of shares for trading could lower their price as early investors look to lock in profits .
Starship's success could support stocks and investor sentiment. The rocket is the flywheel that will allow SpaceX to create value, says RBC analyst Ken Hebert. Guys, as you can see, I found a very nice illustration regarding the unlock period. As you can see, August 11 is the unlock period when you get 20% of the shares.
Then on September 14, another 20%, and if you go a little lower, then on October 25, another 14%, and then in November, 28% will be unlocked. And all of this, guys, should lead to a decline in the stock price, right? Unless, of course, there's some good news about Starship or maybe a merger with Tesla or something like that that can actually push the stock up.
But you need to be very careful with investing in SpaceX if you don't plan on playing long and just want to buy without trying to guess the perfect moment, right? You just want to make a purchase and forget about it. So, overall, SpaceX is a long-term game, so it's better to think in terms of 10 years, not 1-2 years.
And remember: always invest only money you can afford to lose. my community. Thanks for watching, and see you next time.
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