Regarding stock buybacks, Bill Ackman questions Warren Buffett

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한 줄 결론: 버크셔 해서웨이의 워런 버핏은 코카콜라처럼 우량 기업의 자사주 매입을 대체로 좋은 자본 배분으로 보지만, 주가가 지나치게 높으면 어리석을 수 있다고 본다. 질문 배경: 빌 애크먼이 주가수익비율(PE) 약 40배 수준에서의 코카콜라 자사주 매입이 합리적인지 질문한다. 버핏의 코카콜라 견해: 코카콜라는 100년 넘게 운영된 세계 최고 수준의 대형 우량 기업이며, 이 기간 자사주 매입이 어리석었던 시기는 거의 없었다고 평가한다. 버크셔의 지분 변화: 1988년 코카콜라 지분 6.3%를 매입했고, 자사주 매입으로 지분이 현재 8%를 조금 넘는 수준까지 늘었다. 매입이 없었다면 약 6.7~6.8%였을 것이라고 설명한다. 수치 근거: 연간 약 18억 개의 8온스 서빙이 판매되며 버크셔 몫은 약 1억 2천만 개가 추가되고, 서빙당 약 1센트 이상의 수익이 발생한다고 계산한다. 버핏의 자사주 매입 선호: 주가수익비율 15배에서 매입하는 것이 더 좋지만, 20배에서도 좋다면 많은 돈을 빌려서라도 매입하는 것이 20년 후 주주에게 유리하다고 본다. 자사주 매입에 대한 비판: 많은 기업의 자사주 매입은 유행이나 어리석은 이유로 이루어지며, 스톡옵션을 대량 발행한 뒤 고가에 되사는 것은 '싸게 팔고 비싸게 사는' 행태라고 비판한다. 버핏은 이런 경우에는 동의하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 찰리 멍거 의견: 어떤 기업이든 주가가 너무 높아지면 자사주 매입은 어리석을 수 있으며, 1929년 이전 공익기업의 주가 부양용 매입은 폰지 사기와 같았다고 지적한다. 다만 정말 훌륭한 기업이 높은 PE에서 매입하는 것은 현명할 수 있다. 간접 수혜 사례: 버크셔의 GEICO 지분은 회사가 자사주를 매입하면서 매입 비용 없이 33%에서 50%로 늘었고, 워싱턴포스트 지분도 주식을 사지 않고 9%대에서 17%대로 늘었다. 현재 전망: 과거처럼 싼 가격에 자사주를 살 기회는 줄었지만, 많은 경우 자사주 매입은 여전히 최선의 자금 활용이라고 본다. 이 영상은 2023년 7월 22일 자 과거 주주서한/총회 발언을 다룬 것으로, 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.

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01. yes um Bill Ackman from New York uh are there is there a price at which it's inappropriate for a company to use its capital buyback its stock give me that again Coca-Cola at uh 40p is that a smart place for Coke to deploy Capital well it it sounds like a very high price when you name it in terms of a PE to buy back the stock at at uh that sort of number but I would say this uh Coca-Cola's been around 100 and 12 years now and uh there's very few times in that 112 years if any when it would not have been smart for Coca-Cola be repurchasing your shares Coca-Cola is probably in my view among businesses that I can understand it's the best large business in the world I mean it is a fantastic business and uh we love it when Coke repurchases shares and our interest goes up we owned 6.3 percent of Coca-Cola in 1988 when we bought in we actually increase that a little bit a few years later but if they had not repurchased shares we probably would own about 6.7 or 6.8 percent of coke now as it is we own a little over eight percent uh through repurchases uh they're going to be about a billion eight ounce servings of coke sold around the world or Coca-Cola products sold around the world today uh eight percent of that is 80 million and 6.8 percent of 68 million so they're 12 million extra servings for the account of Berkshire Hathaway being sold around the world and they're making a little over a penny a serving so you know that that gets me kind of excited and I I think it all I can tell you is I approve of of coke repurchasing shares I'd rather have them repurchasing shares at at 15 times earnings but but when I look at other ways to use capital I still think it's a very it's a very good use of capital and maybe the day will come when they can buy it at 20 times earnings and if they can I hope they go out and borrow a lot of money to buy a ton of it at those prices and uh I think we will be better off 20 years from now if Coke follows a consistent repurchase approach I do not think that is true for many companies I mean I think that repurchases have become in Vogue and done for a lot of silly reasons and uh so I I don't think everybody's repurchase of shares uh is well reasoned at all uh uh you know we see companies that issue options by the ton and then they repurchase shares much higher you know I started reading about Investments when I was six and I think the first thing that I read was you know Buy Low sell high but these companies through their options you know they sell low and then they buy high and they've got a different formula than I was taught uh so there are a number that we don't approve of it when we have when we own stock in a wonderful business uh we we like we like the idea of repurchases even at prices that uh that may give you nosebleeds it generally turns out to be a pretty good policy Charlie well I think the answer is that in any company the stock could get to a price so high it would be foolish for the corporation to repurchase its shares sure and you can even get into gross abuse before the crash the insole utilities were madly buying their own shares as a way of promoting the stock higher it was like a giant Ponzi scheme at the end so there's all kinds of excess that's possible but the really great companies that buy a high price earnings where that's that can be wise our interest in Geico went from 33 to 50 percent without us laying out a dime because Geico was repurchasing its shares and uh we've benefited substantially but we benefited a lot more obviously when prices were were lower I mean we would we would our interest in the Washington Post company has gone from nine in a fraction percent to 17 in a fraction percent over the years without us buying a single share but the post or Coke or any number of companies don't get the bargain in repurchasing now that they used to uh we still think it's probably the best best use of money in many cases